line check: flopped full house

[ManicLombax]

This is the FTR500 last night.

I'm betting smallish here in case BB doesn't have an ace, maybe some middle pair, trying to get some value. Then BB insta-shoves on river. Do I even think about folding here fearing A4 or 44? Can't imagine he sticks around with 44 for two streets, but my bets have been smallish. Might have slow played A2 or A3 too I suppose. Or maybe he has A5 and got excited about the straight. Can't imagine he sticks around with other 5x on the gutshot. I'm thinking likely he has Ax and decided I didn't have a better Ax.

I guess I'm getting nearly 2:1 pot odds to call here. On the other hand the c/c c/c insta-shove line was scary.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t1300)
BB (t1935)
UTG (t1555)
UTG+1 (t1670)
MP1 (t1255)
Hero (MP2) (t1435)
CO (t1390)
Button (t1850)

Hero's M: 19.13

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 2, 2
3 folds, Hero calls t50, 1 fold, Button calls t50, SB calls t25, BB checks

Flop: (t200) 2, A, A (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t100, 2 folds, BB calls t100

Turn: (t400) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t250, BB calls t250

River: (t900) 4 (2 players)
BB bets t1535 (All-In), Hero calls t1035 (All-In)

Total pot: t2970

[baudib]

probably fold pre, other than that looks great.

[ManicLombax]

Thanks baudib. Why do you fold pre? Set mining odds look decent to me, and only 4 people to act after me. I'd fold it UTG, UTG+1. Do I need to have limpers in front of me to limp?

[baudib]

good chance you get it 3-way against just the blinds, setmining against weak ranges is pretty meh and you're flipping with a random hand. you also get popped by CO/BTN a lot and have to fold.

[stardustakos]

You mean you don't like the open limp? How about raising 3x? I don't get why not play deuces here. What range are we opening? AJ+, 77, 88 what?

If we open AJ and get popped don't we fold?

[baudib]

this is against top 20%, minus the hands that will almost always 3-bet you (QQ+, AK)


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.478% 42.73% 00.74% 1137129732 19783362.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 56.522% 55.78% 00.74% 1484223960 19783362.00 { JJ-22, AQs-A3s, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AQo-A9o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.480% 55.44% 03.03% 3387403688 185405704.00 { AJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 41.520% 38.49% 03.03% 2351285576 185405704.00 { JJ-22, AQs-A3s, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AQo-A9o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

[ManicLombax]

Not sure the equities are all that relevant here. If I limp a pair of sevens, I'm almost always going to see overcards, and almost always folding to any bet unless I hit my set. Could very well be that my hand holds up on the KT6 board, but I'm not going to call a bet to find out unless it's ridiculously small.

I do see what you mean baudib about set mining against the blinds though. You like calling small raises with small pairs better than limping, where you can stack somebody if they hit their hand and you hit your set?

All that said, I've actually been folding small pairs quite a bit more often, and I think it's saving me chips.

[fjuanl]

Either 2.5x pre or fold. Your so shallow that you can't even call if someone raises over your limp

Not folding river, A5 could be valueshoving along with other somewhat strangely played Ax