Repping a big boat

[baudib]

Villain is 18/14 over 100ish hands, 3-bets 4%. He's a member of a poker forum and he presumably tries to play well.

My image is pretty tight as I've shown down only QQ+/AQ+, plus a BB special where I flopped trips in a limped pot. I haven't been stealing much.

Not sure if this is total spew or not. I am not sure how often he is folding river after calling turn, but when he doesn't jam over my CiB I feel like he has a very small boat at best and most likely a floating Ax hand. Based on stats, action and positions he shouldn't have overpairs here very often, nor 8x. My range contains more air but also many more nut hands, the only nut hands he can really have are 888 999; I can have both 8x and TT+ and I think he realizes this. Is this line credible for representing a big hand or do you think he'd hero call this with AJ or something. My river bet leaves him with about 15 BBs.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (10,721)
UTG+1 (1,725)
MP (2,415)
Hero (CO) (16,285)
BTN (8,240)
SB (6,845)
BB (8,450)

Blinds: 80/160

Pre-Flop: (240, 7 players) Hero is CO K 10
3 folds, Hero raises to 400, 2 folds, BB calls 240

Flop: 8 4 4 (880, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 480, BB calls 480

Turn: 4 (1,840, 2 players)
BB bets 1,280, Hero raises to 2,560, BB calls 1,280

River: 9 (6,960, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 3,120

[AcidMind]

I prefer to raise bigger on turn to rep strong full-house, and after his call - just check behind river if we dont hit. According to Zeebo theorem - nobody ever folded a full house I doubt that he going to call significant turn raise with just 2 overs.

[fjuanl]

originally i was thinking you should just put him in on the river, but i can see why you chose this. it just screams valuebet. if your a random to him and its a smallish buyin, he might pay off with TT-JJ because he might think your a fish who overplays 8x

its a pretty ambitious bluff because i think his range on the turn is really strong, but i don't think many people expect to get bluffraised there. its a credible line and your range is way stronger than his like you said.

[drmcboy]

Seems like the kind of thing that should work but never does. I think if you want to bluff river it's better to call the turn, raising with small PPs/8x doesn't make much sense ott.

I think he has Ax on the turn < 1%.

Anyway I think it's a cool play.

Wasn't it just last week I was complaining about you not posting the buy in?

[baudib]

it's a $5 private tournament, the same one korn folded KK.

I don't why I CiBed the turn but his donk just smelled like BS. If he has 77 or something (which is close to the top of his range) I'd think he'd just call down.

[stardustakos]

His lead on the turn troubles me. Could he have A8 or A4, or like you said sth like 66, 77 or even TT? Could he just call with overpairs since he is the last to act and you are heads up? it I don't think he would ever lead turn w air.

[baudib]

It would be pretty bizarre for him to have a 4 or lead the turn with quads, he won't have an 8 much either. We're obviously not bluffing him off overpairs so the question becomes: Does he want to play for most of his stack with 77? If we're in BB's shoes I think leading the turn with AX is reasonable as we usually have 7 outs to improve.

[fjuanl]

i think most of his range is 99-JJ, 8x and very unlikely to be things like 55-77 with that sizing. unless he thinks your a massive fish he wont get value by betting that large

[KoRnholio]

I prefer to raise bigger on turn to rep strong full-house, and after his call - just check behind river if we dont hit. According to Zeebo theorem - nobody ever folded a full house I doubt that he going to call significant turn raise with just 2 overs.

lol I was going to mention Zeebo theorem too.

it's a $5 private tournament, the same one korn folded KK.

I don't why I CiBed the turn but his donk just smelled like BS. If he has 77 or something (which is close to the top of his range) I'd think he'd just call down.

Given the play in that tourny, I don't ever expect him to have Ax after the turn action. IMO that donk bet on the turn means he has a boat, I am thinking 66/77/8x. I'd raise a bit bigger on the turn and set up a river shove for maximum pressure.

I think making a smaller bet on the river leaving him with 15BB if he calls and loses, will make him more likely to call with that weak boat than if you had just shoved. Psychologically I think they are thinking "well I am probably beat, but I am getting good odds and even if I call and lose I am still in the game with an okay stack... I call!"

[baudib]

Results:
He typed in chat, "JJ held up," and folded. I showed, he claimed he had KQ. In a rare case of advertising working, he later shoved over my EP open with QJo for 20 BBs and I knocked him out.

[fjuanl]

Villain is 18/14 over 100ish hands, 3-bets 4%. He's a member of a poker forum and he presumably tries to play well.

keyword. no but really, i cant imagine he was telling the truth