$6.50 turbo, AKo UTG gets 3-bet

[baudib]

Villain is 45/30 over 20ish hands, has never 3-bet in that sample and hasn't gotten to showdown.
I don't do this often, but referring to Doc's rules for SnGs, folding seemed like the right thing to do. This guy is obviously loose but being UTG, he can't think I'm folding often here.


Full Tilt Poker Game #24833858497: $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (192310046), Table 1 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:39:36 ET - 2010/10/19
Seat 1: SERKOR (1,330)
Seat 2: zrwill07 (1,210)
Seat 3: WFNK (1,770)
Seat 5: baudib1 (2,875)
Seat 6: schlopper (1,770)
Seat 7: J_Handford (1,490)
Seat 8: FishLips44 (1,670)
Seat 9: pereedy72 (1,385)
zrwill07 posts the small blind of 40
WFNK posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to baudib1 [Ah Kd]
baudib1 raises to 240
schlopper has 15 seconds left to act
schlopper raises to 840
J_Handford folds
FishLips44 folds
pereedy72 folds
SERKOR folds
zrwill07 folds
WFNK folds
baudib1 has 15 seconds left to act
baudib1 folds

[fulksy]

at the 6.50's I'm shoving every time here. especially against 45/30 who will almost certainly 3 bet worse then AQ. + dead money there is no way I'm folding. folding AK happens more at or around bubble situations when ICM equities are affected more

this is assuming he never folds to your 4 bet which i assume is the case.
ICM equity

fold = 18.32%
Win = 28.87%
Lose= 8.77%

(18.32-8.77)/(28.87-8.77) 47.5...

you need ~47.5% equity to shove assuming he calls everytime, and against Ajs+ AQ+ and 99+ its a shove, even if you go 1010+ AQ+ still a shove

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

92,464,416 games 0.281 secs 329,054,861 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.828% 41.08% 08.74% 37988179 8085133.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 50.172% 41.43% 08.74% 38305971 8085133.00 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }

[taipan168]

Wow, against a 45/30 I am pretty happily shoving over even if you haven't seen him 3-bet before. Fulksy has done the ICM already but against this player I'd expect to have more than 47.5% equity against his range.

[drmcboy]

Well I'm not happy because I think the sizing is spooky, but he's a 45/30 and I don't have any rules for them, plus it might be worth it just to get him off your left. Is it a pot size raise? If so easy jam.

[fulksy]

His bet size is spooky and definitely looks like he wants a call or shove, but 45/30 donk could be doing that with AQ.