$40 live tournament, c-f TT on monotone board?

[baudib]

2-table live tournament, blinds are 200/400 and 9 people are left

I have just under 9,000 in chips and raise UTG with to $1000 get called by UTG+2. She is a decent player who usually finishes in the money in this tournament by combining to charm people out of chips or into cheap showdowns and playing a survivor-type game. She's almost never 3-bets without KK+ but occasionally makes inexplicable gambles and never folds a draw postflop.

Anyway she tanks a bit and flat calls. She has a lot of respect for my game and I have sort of a scary-tight image at this place. Earlier, at our first table, I raised UTG and it folded to her in the BB and she mucked AQs face-up.

Flop is:

I check and she bets the pot (2,600) and she has about 4k left. I fold?

[fulksy]

whats the payout structure? is their any chance she folds AQ, JJ, or better with no diamond? i think its close to a semi bluff shove.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

52,470 games 0.062 secs 846,290 games/sec

Board: Qd 9d 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.030% 42.43% 00.60% 22263 315.00 { TdTh }
Hand 1: 56.970% 56.37% 00.60% 29577 315.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }


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[KoRnholio]

She has what, 6600 chips left and the pot is 2600? Kind of awkward, but I kinda want to just open shove the flop. I'd love to get a fold from a bare A or K of diamonds, would a 2.3x pot shove be enough to make her fold a hand like that? If she folds a queen that would be just orgasmic too...

[baudib]

I feel like I'm well behind her calling range pre and on this flop. these middle pair/mediocre FD hands give me nightmares.

[dneureiter]

open shipping flop seems so gross. But I do see where you are coming from plus that always folds AxKd and other hands the crush us. (assuming she folds a draw to 2.3x pot with bare Kd?)
Can we fairly safely remove KK+ from her range here assuming she 3bets that a great majority of the time?

I defineately like leading alot better anywhere from 1600-shoving. What are her postflop aggression tendencies? she's checking back KdX and JJ here? If she's super passive I kindof like a 1600-2000 on the flop and then try to check it down if she plays her draws and worse value hands passively.

so she folds AQ pre here you think? if so her range looks alot like AK, TT-QQ and I guess shipping flop isn't too terrible. unless she has a flush you've got decent equity and she folds most combos only thing that really owns us is AKdd and QQ which is a whopping 4 combos.

[drmcboy]

given image I would just bet/fold flop

[johnpoker10]

lol