WSOP ME

[baudib]

Kinda weird we don't have a thread about this going on anywhere, and I hate posting on 2+2.

If you haven't seen it, Chan is 9th in chips (just under 3 million) with maybe 200 players left.

He gets moved to a new table UTG and is dealt .

Blinds are 8k/16k. He opens for 40k. Joe Pisano in MP raises to 210K. Chan makes it 430K to go and Pisano calmly shovels in 2.1 million. Chan snaps.

Seems like a reasonably easy fold IMO with 150 or so BBs left. Thoughts?

[ManicLombax]

Interesting. You're thinking at this level Pisano is almost always going to have the aces if he's calmly shoveling in 130 bb? If he could have QQ in his range it's a good call, but yeah maybe he doesn't have QQ very often here.

[baudib]

It's not some unknown Stars kid, this is Johnny Chan, his UTG min-4-betting range is retarded strong and I'm sure anyone left in the ME knows this.

I understand that holding KK, getting shoved on with a shot to be massive CL in the ME is a shitty spot to be in but it seems like you're never good. It's Day 6 of the ME, I don't think the guy has a 5-bet bluffing range or expects him to fold whatever he is 4-betting UTG with.

I've never folded KK in any MTT but I have done it several times in live games. Wondering if anyone else has been in similar spots, obviously not in the WSOP ME but in high buy-in MTTs.

[chardrian]

the thing is kids get fancy play syndrome so johnny being new to the table he has no idea if the kid is trying to steal one from the great johnny chan or if he has the AA.

The fact that bluffs are in his range + he might be bad enough to get it in there w/AK or QQ = his call is fine.

[baudib]

god really...i was under the impression that this guy is fairly solid, not that chan would know that at the time.

so as someone with big tourney experience, put yourself in pisano's position, what hands are you 5-betting Chan there, Day 6 of the ME?

[caddie444]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

277,393,248 games 0.244 secs 1,136,857,573 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.399% 35.35% 02.05% 98063112 5680134.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 62.601% 60.55% 02.05% 167969868 5680134.00 { KK }

Chan can pick better spots = fold

[chardrian]

god really...i was under the impression that this guy is fairly solid, not that chan would know that at the time.

so as someone with big tourney experience, put yourself in pisano's position, what hands are you 5-betting Chan there, Day 6 of the ME?

thats the thing though. Chan can't know that. He is a live grinder. This is just one of those situations where you start mindfucking yourself depending on what level you are on.

E.g. I can take your argument that Chan "should" be folding KK here and flip it on its head and say that then pisano "should" be 5-bet jamming ATC here since we are going to get a fold so often. And if that's the case then it's an easy call for Chan.

Anyhoo, here's how the situation went down I would be willing to bet: Chan sits down at table with a huge stack. He gets KK and obv opens. The only other player at the table who can damage Chan's stack significantly 3 bets him. Chan thinks this is just a punk ass kid who is trying to show Chan that he can't just come to the table and start running it over so he correctly 4 bets. The punk ass kid now shoves. And now you get into the leveling game. Is the kid on the nuts or is he still just telling Chan to eat it since Chan left him fold equity? I can't fault Chan for calling here - I mean if the kid shows 72o here and Chan folds KK then someone like you is going to make a post calling Chan out for being such a standard live tard who lol folds KK.

[baudib]

me? i play $5 donkaments where I can barely fold JJ/AK to 5-bets. I'm not interested in criticizing Chan or any established pro, I just wonder if this situation, with no history, warrants some consideration.

If you say that people are capable of frakking around with an UTG 4-bettor with ATC (doesn't Chan have the bullets himself in that spot a ton of the time?), I'll defer to your experience.

[drmcboy]

why do you think a 4 bet is good if chan thinks the guy is messing with him?

[chardrian]

because he left him the perfect stack to shove with. guys who are messing around sometimes just stop, but usually they dig in and bluff big.

p.s. I doubt chan snapcalled either. I am sure he took at least a little time to ponder and then sigh/call.

[baudib]

it seemed pretty instantaneous from the ESPN broadcast.

[baudib]

another crucial hand, not sure what the blinds were, i assume near 100k

BTN opens for 305K, SB with 7 million chips 3-bets to 865k.
Pisano in BB with 7.3 million flatcalls with AKo.
BTN calls.

Seems like a standard 4-bet as big stack when BTN is likely to come along if you smooth call and both are likely to have a ton of air. or, I suppose, a good flat because both have air.

anyone here have stories from the ME?

[baudib]

so if you're Matt Affleck, within sight of the November 9, you hold AA and are facing a 4-bet pre IP against one of the few people left who has you covered, do you just 5-bet ship it or flat and play a flop?

[drmcboy]

We'll I'd shove against anyone from Sweeden/Norway! And shove vs the randoms that are left like the cl. I could see flating vs say the grinder or that john racer or whatever his name is. Also the 2 french hoodie guys. I would assume most people have the goods at this point 4 betting and if they don't they probably won't get fancy post anyway.

[baudib]

Do we get more value from shoving or playing a flop?

Given that this is CO/BTN we should not only give CO less credit than normal, isn't CO giving us a lot less credit?

idk. epic hand. I feel bad for Affleck, I don't even really enjoy watching him on TV, but I think he played it beautifully. I think I'd shove but probably for the wrong reasons.

[drmcboy]

Oh, I thought you were talking generically. Are you watching it somewhere besides ESPN? I guess I haven't seen the hand you mean.

[baudib]

oops did i spoil it

no i've been reading about it and read the discussion on that obnoxious poker forum (no, the other one).

[baudib]

from pokernews:

Duhamel started things with a raise to 550,000 from the cutoff position. Affleck had the button and three-bet to 1.55 million. His re-raise folded the blinds and brought the action back to Duhamel. Duhamel four-bet to 3,925,000 and was called by Affleck, creating a pot with 8.0 million chips in it before the flop!

Duhamel seemed to sense he was in trouble. He checked a ten-high flop, , and soon faced a 5.0-million-chip bet from Affleck.

Duhamel called that bet to see the hit the turn. Again he checked. Affleck did the only thing he could do -- he moved all in for 11.6 million chips.

Duhamel had Affleck covered, but it was still a huge decision. He asked for a count, which due to the size of Affleck's stack took about a minute to determine. Then Duhamel went into the tank. The leading speculation in the media tower was that he had pocket jacks and was stuck with a horrible decision.

A minute and a half after he got Affleck's count, Duhamel peeked at his cards and puffed his cheeks out in a big sigh. Thirty seconds later he stole a glance at Affleck. Another minute. Duhamel shook his head. Then thirty seconds later, almost five minutes after Affleck pushed all in, Duhamel called!

Duhamel:
Affleck:
Affleck immediately stood up. The pot was huge, a total of 42 million chips. If his aces could hold, he'd be almost assured a berth in the November Nine. The entire rail leaned forward in anticipation...
River:

A collective gasp was let out. Duhamel filled a queen-high straight! Affleck bowed his head to the rail, burying his face in his hat. It was impossible not to feel for him, how close he had come and how brutally everything had been snatched away from him.

He looked as though he was doing his best to fight back tears as he watched his stack slide over to Duhamel. By the time he departed, his face was bright red, overcome with the emotion of what just transpired.






Pretty normal MTT-style beat, but considering the circumstances, pretty sick/epic hand.

[Toadstool]

I folded KK in the main event when UTG raised, UTG+1 reraised (they were both pretty tight) I folded, the flop came K22 and I would have stacked their 66 and JJ....

[baudib]

GO GRINDer

[baudib]

It's official, Cheong is a major sicko.

[drmcboy]

yeah wow...