AKo vs. shorty and two callers

[ManicLombax]

Any thoughts about this? I'm not terribly scared of the push from the short stack. If he has AA/KK he's probably not pushing here unless he's trickier than I'm thinking he will be. The two flat callers aren't all that scary either, again unless they're being tricky with AA trying to provoke a shove. Only trouble is both of them are probably pot committed so I'm probably not getting any folds if I shove.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 0.5 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t1450)
MP2 (t1110)
CO (t1530)
Hero (Button) (t3250)
SB (t1280)
BB (t2000)
UTG (t640)
UTG+1 (t3940)

Hero's M: 108.33

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
UTG bets t640 (All-In), 1 fold, MP1 calls t640, 1 fold, CO calls t640, Hero ?

[lutjanid]

shove 100% of the time

[donkbee]

instapush

[drmcboy]

what if we call and then never fold?

[ManicLombax]

be better if we were first to act post flop unless we know the callers are super passive I'd think.

[drmcboy]

if you think the chance they fold pre is 0%, and the chance that they both c/f the flop is > 0 you should do it, unless somehow they will know when you've hit and only fold those.

if someone has JT, they are not going to be making a mistake with all the money out there calling a shove pre. But if we flat and it comes 872 they might give up on the flop in a spot they should call. You could also get a fold from 66 if it comes QJ4

[ManicLombax]

True, good point. > 0% is better than 0%. See, I've been practicing the math stuff.

[chardrian]

pokerstove this one - it wouldnt surprise me if a fold is best.

[donkbee]

if you think the chance they fold pre is 0%, and the chance that they both c/f the flop is > 0 you should do it, unless somehow they will know when you've hit and only fold those.

if someone has JT, they are not going to be making a mistake with all the money out there calling a shove pre. But if we flat and it comes 872 they might give up on the flop in a spot they should call. You could also get a fold from 66 if it comes QJ4

I never thought of it this way. If they are always calling, then this seems great.

In reality there must always be at least some FE here, though... at least some chance for dead money? Which is why I shove, I guess.

[ManicLombax]

Yeah let's see. I guess we need two pokerstove calculations, one for the main pot and one for the side pot (assuming no one folds).

Main pot: 2560
If I put everyone on about top 8%, I have about 23.9% equity or 612 chips

Side pots (assuming no folds): 2590
Again with 2 opps on 8%, I have about 34.8% equity or 901 chips

There are actually 2 side pots but the 3rd one is teeny so I'll just lump it in with the other, probably close enough.

Costs me 1530 chips to shove, and I win 1513 chips assuming my range is close to correct. So really close. If anyone ever folds shoving is clear with the dead money. If I ever get a better hand to fold post flop with drmcboy's stop-n-go technique, probably becomes +ev too.

I guess it depends greatly on the ranges of the opponents. If they're calling 3% it's a clear fold. If they're calling 15% it's a clear shove even if they all call.

I'm just not sure what flat calling 30bb for half your stack means. Weird play.

[djh860]

is that a .50 cent tournament? Then I would shove you might fold both callers. A side pot might work in your favor as well if they call. You might win the side pot with A hi.

[ManicLombax]

Yeah this is one of the $0.50 PCA qualifier 90 man SNG's on Stars. So the play can be a little, ah, sketchy.