66 bb 2limpers bubble

[ed cooper]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t2380)
Button (t4260)
SB (t5170)
Hero (BB) (t1690)

Hero's M: 7.51

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
1 fold, Button calls t150, SB calls t75, hero???

both villains not good. button had raised earlier with 10j from ep, then later got involved in a 3,4,5bet battle with the same hand. he sucked out.
after this hand he was also open shoving, apparently oblivious to the fact that that the big stack was on his left.

sb: earlier flatted a raise of 220 when the bb was just 20. on flop, pot was ~450, he was first to act and open shoved for about 2200. on another occasion utg was all in (~850) there was one caller then he flatted too. he had KJs.

can i aford to just check this? if you wouldnt shove here what would you be shoving with?

[OngBonga]

With this stack I think I just shove this.

[dneureiter]

If villains are really awful then you can check this since one of them should bubble soon and you do have 11 bbs.

I'd rather see a free flop with KJ or a hand that hits the flop more than 1 time in 8.

Dead money + we are ahead of villains calling range does really lead towards a shove though. Sure you get it in flipping alot and it kindof sucks but he has Ax and Kx suited and smallrd pairs here fairly often as well.

sngwiz will say to shove this given reasonable ranges for these bad villains but it doesn't take into account skill factor and the fact that they are ignorant and will bubble in stupid ways.

I'd shove ATs, AJ, KQs, 88+ for sure and possibly wider.

So I basically didn't answer your question. It's close and if villains are truly awful I suppose we can check this and wait for a stronger hand or until one of them bubbles (hopefully soon)

[taipan168]

How much fold equity do we really think we have in this spot, and do we really want to get it in as a flip?

[OngBonga]

How much fold equity do we really think we have in this spot, and do we really want to get it in as a flip?

Depends how far away from bubble I guess. If we can make it by folding, no. If not, yes.

[OngBonga]

I think we have more fold equity than you give credit for. We have the power of the other stacks... first to act after us has two other stacks to consider. The last limper is likely to have the widest range, there's plenty of junk he can then fold, and plenty of Ax hands he might call. And I suspect the times we do get outright folds is more than enough to pay for the rare occasion we're dominated by 77 or whatever limping in. It's just a case of bubble for me.

*edit
yeah i see there was one fold, but first to act has still got to consider the larger stack.

[taipan168]

Don't have SNG Wiz here at the moment so I can't run it, but it is a disaster for us ICM-wise to get called by overcards, not just overpairs. The other factor to consider is that the two limpers are the two big stacks, so either of them can afford to call our shove and still be in a very healthy position.

[OngBonga]

You're very probably right, but like I say, it really comes down to how desperate I am. 4handed these blinds are going to come around quickly, we're not going to see a great deal of hands before we're forced to shove junk. If I can't fold to the cash, then I shove and just hope for the best. We're rarely up against a bigger pair, I'd really expect 77+ to raise, not limp, we will get folds sometimes (though I realise not as often as we'd like), and there's a few hands we dominate that can limp in and then call our shove, ie A2-A6, or 22-55. Worst case scenario is obviously two callers, but I don't think that happens often. And yes, of course the majority of the time we get one call, it's a flip, but seems ok to me in terms of equity thanks to the dead money, plus we're slightly ahead of most overcard combos.

But I must confess that ICM is not something I know anything about, I think that's going to be my topic of study for this evening. I will point out though that if I think I can cash by folding, I'm not going to shove.

[Fielmann]

if I think I can cash by folding

What does this sentence mean?

Our chance of cashing, if we fold, is definitely bigger than 50%, if that's what you had in mind. But this fact has really no relevance at all.

[OngBonga]

What does this sentence mean?

If we think our stack is big enough to hang on until one of the others goes broke. I don't think it is, I'm in short stack mode and just push because our fold equity is just going to get worse and worse if we keep folding. I've really got to read up on ICM though, because my decision is based on chip equity, and not dollar equity. If we can be sure there's very few overpairs in their ranges, which I'm confident about, and if we get folds more often than we get two callers, then shoving isn't bad in terms of chip equity, but I might just be giving my money away on the bubble of a SNG by shoving this because there are factors that I am not considering.

[Fielmann]

If I think I can cash by folding

What does this sentence mean?

If we think our stack is big enough to hang on until one of the others goes broke

By "hanging on" you mean like folding in spots where shoving is profitable? We should never be playing that way, so this clause is completely hypothetical.

Now why should the truth value of a hypothetical clause have any impact on the decision we make in the original hand?

[OngBonga]

I think this is where I'm failing, because I can't see too many better spots in the next eight hands or so before we're desperate. Maybe I'm just too aggressive with bb<14, too desperate to haul myself into 3rd. I guess we can fold this and then shove any two on the sb if it's folded round, or then see two free hands before we look down at another bb, but I think what does it for me is that I'm unlikely to see another pair for a while, and I'm unlikely to be dominated. This really does seem as good as it's getting with this stack.

I think your point about shoving where profitable is important. It seems to me that shoving 66 IS profitable, but this is due to my poor understanding of ICM. I've had a look at an overview of it, it seems like it's going to take some sinking in!

[dneureiter]

Wow. Given pretty much any reasonable ranges for villains this is not even close according to sngwiz. we need 99+ AQ.

even if btn limp (calls) 40 (10) and sb is 54 (11) this is still -.7% ev.

Question is can we afford not to check

[TLR]

It is relatively hard to answer without reads on the limpers, if you have decent fold equity based on reads then push, otherwise take the free flop. You should also take into account that if button calls light it gives SB very good odds to overcall which is a disaster for you

[Fielmann]

Given pretty much any reasonable ranges for villains this is not even close according to sngwiz. we need 99+ AQ.

even if btn limp (calls) 40 (10) and sb is 54 (11) this is still -.7% ev.

We must remember to discount some premium hands from limpers' ranges.

[dneureiter]

We must remember to discount some premium hands from limpers' ranges.

mmh, very good point. They will probably trap some but most of TT+ should b discounted and ak, aq.

It's actually really close it btn raises all JJ, AK AQ and sb raises TT+ AQ AJs. then this is between -.3 and +.3 depending on how wide they call (wider is worse). B/e is if they call 3-13% ish. This seems wide but our shove isn't too scary to their stacks and these are fish. and b/e ev is bad considering these two will misplay the bubble and stack too lightly vs each other.

and in all honesty this is a spot I am mostly shoving in game with worse pairs

[PokerWiz]

You are ahead of their range. Shove it in. Don't limp with 11bb.