QQ vs. loose caller

[ManicLombax]

Villain with the big stack has been making some loose calls, presumably trying to eliminate players, and has been fairly lucky. Based on the famous "KK with an ace" thread logic I check behind the flop.

On the turn I'm thinking:
- he has a weak ace and decided it's good
- he hit a set with the 3 (or even 3 pair, this is a $1 tourney)
- he's semi-bluffing a heart draw
- he's been slow playing a 4
- or he figures the 3 didn't help me and is going to push me off my hand with nothing

So what do I do here? I don't like any of my options.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.4 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t31148)
MP2 (t11604)
CO (t5996)
Hero (Button) (t7186)
SB (t12216)
BB (t10170)
UTG (t19799)

Hero's M: 11.98

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
1 fold, MP1 calls t400, 2 folds, Hero bets t1600, 2 folds, MP1 calls t1200

Flop: (t3800) 4, A, 4 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t3800) 3 (2 players)
MP1 bets t2800, Hero scratches head

[donkbee]

I probably call turn and call river because I'm a calling station.

[OngBonga]

I don't like folding, calling or raising. Kick the dog.

[drmcboy]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ce-109250.html

there are substantial differences - the 3bet pre, lack of FD on flop, and unpaired board. so there are a lot more hands that can call a bet that we are ahead of. You should not use that thread as a reason not to bet every time an Ace comes to your pair.

based on the read I would usually bet small on flop, less than half pot. then assuming turn checks through and river is a brick you can make a small bet or pick off a bluff.

I don't think checking is horrible but folding the turn would be. I mean he could legitimately be value betting any pair and there is no read to make you think he'll be firing a ton of two barrels or otherwise making like tough on river.

[ManicLombax]

So I actually decided to shove here since it costs half my stack to call, even if I have near zero fold equity. Figure I'm not folding the river so I may as well put the chips in. You think flat call is better?

[fjuanl]

I just did some pokerstove stuff on this. I just made a pretty simple range for villain of flushdraws (both hearts and diamonds) and Ax. The flush draws were KQs-K6s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J7s, T9s-T7s, 98s-96s, 87s-86s, 76s, 65s. The Ax I put in was A2-A3, A5-AT.

Your hand has 29% vs this range, which is just about breakeven vs this betsize. The problem is you can't really fold the remaining 2700 on the river, so the turn bet is essentially all-in. That would mean you need 37% to breakeven.

If you agree with dr that he could have 55-99 mixed in with some total bluffs, it becomes better to shove or call it off.