ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 13 ! (YTD: 83-83-2, +56.7 units)

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 83-83-2
Units Won: +56.7

Allrighty, Texans on Thursday Night Football GOOOO TEXANS!!!

~~~

Finishing the three team 6 point open teaser I started earlier with Philadelphia -2.

2 units at +180

I mean, I obviously would like the Texans to win here, but see a very real possibility that the Eagles score on EVERY possession. EVERY possession.

The key to defeating Michael Vick is a good defensive line, as the giants and Bears have show us. The Texans...don't have that. If we go zone, he'll torch our secondary; if we blitz, he'll surely escape contain, pick up first downs, and extend drives.

The Philly Moneyline is being sold here for around -340. I feel comfy with an Eagles -2 bet to finish out a teaser for around that price.

And, along the same lines for reasoning,

Eagles/Texas OVER 50 (-116)
2 units at Matchbook

I think the main thing hindering this bet might be if the Texans can score enough points to keep up their end of it. I really wanted to roll with the Eagles Team Total OVER, but at 30, it's pretty high to me.


GOOO Eagles? Bah, I'm still rooting for my Texans. GOOO TEXANS!

[ensign_lee]

Oh, and adding:

Eagles -8 (-101)
1 unit at Matchbook

[flomo]

Good Luck!

[ensign_lee]

Added another unit to the Eagles.

[ensign_lee]

*SIGH*.

Sure do wish the Texans woulda won....

[bigspenda73]

how many units you win tho

[ensign_lee]

Minnesota Vikings -5.5 (+111)
2 units at Matchbook

I think that the Bills disappointment at losing to the Steelers bleeds over to this week.

Broncos M/L (+346)
1 unit at Matchbook

I think that 3.5 to 1 is a really good price here. Broncos only have to win once every 4 times or so for this to be +EV.

And...this week seems to have a lot of lopsided public action. I'm rolling with the books on this one, hoping that last week's public success was just the books baiting people:

Cincinnati Bengals M/L (+248)
2 units at Matchbook

Hopefully the weather plays a factor here as well. Spread offenses usually slow down in inclement weather and it disrupts them a ton. Plus, the line moved from 7 to 6.5 with most people betting on New Orleans.

[ensign_lee]

Adding Washington M/L (+303)
1 unit at Matchbook

With the Giants O-line injuries, I feel like Washington can hang in this game.

Also, something's making me uneasy about the Broncos game, may buy it back.

[ensign_lee]

Adding one more unit to teh VIkings bet.

[ensign_lee]

Final card for the early games, sine I know I made a lot of edits above:

Vikings -5.5 (+111)
3 units at Matchbook

Bengals M/L (+248)
2 units at Matchbook

Broncos M/L (+345)
1 unit at Matchbook

Redskins M/L (+303)
1 unit at Matchbook

[ensign_lee]

Going to go ahead and add

Bengals +7 (-110)
2 units at Skybook

If they're gonna go ahead and give me the free half point onto the 7 for free...

[ensign_lee]

Last minute addition:

Titans -3 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

Skybook threw out a good price, plus most people are on the Jags and the price keeps getting worse on the Titans so...


On a side note, I wonder why so many of Skybook's lines are all wonky today. They have several games that are at least half a point off.

[ensign_lee]

Okay, first up, teams up by 14+

Jacksonville +3.5 (-130)
To Win 7.13 units at theGreek

Minnesota Vikings +.5 (-120)
To Win 7.13 Units at theGreek

New YOrk Giants -1 (-122)
To Win 7.13 Units across betphoenix, skybook, betmania, heritage, and theGreek

And...

adding Minnesota Vikings pk (+105)
2 units at Matchbook.

See oriiginal reasoning for the Vikings -5.5 pick. Hopefully the Bills will ust want the game to be over and teh Vikings can win the second half.

[ensign_lee]

Got my offer matched on the Panthers M/L so my full exposure now on that game is:

Panthers M/L (+189)
4 units between Matchbook and BetTrojan

[ensign_lee]

and taking

Indianapolis -5.5 (-105)
at Skybook before it disappears.

I'll probaby buy this back some, but sinec they were giving me a free half point...

[ensign_lee]

Adding:

Cardinals M/L (+165)
2 units at Skybook

Big thanks to FGators coworkers lunch discussion for drawing my attention to this game. Pinny moving the line to -3 while -3.5 is the concensus line mde this a 2 unitbet instead of a one unit bet.

[ensign_lee]

And adding Baltimore -3 (-106)
2 units at BetTrojan

Might buy this back, but posting it before it's gone

[ensign_lee]

Buying back my Colts bet by 1 unit with:

Dallas Cowboys +6 (+100)
1 unit at Skybook

leaving me with the possibility of a middle if the game hits a 6, and leaving me with 1 unit of exposure on the colts.

[WildBobAA]

gl bro

[ensign_lee]

Running with the 2nd Half Straddle:

Chargers -7.5, OVER 22.5 (+260)
Risking 2.89 Units

Raiders +7.5, UNDER 22.5 (+260)
Risking 2.89 units

[ensign_lee]

Raiders up by 18

Taking

Raiders +7.5 (+115)
Risking 7.4 units at theGreek

Kind of wish I could have had the Raiders +10 (-115)
at BetPHoenix/Skybook, but they've decided to cut me off and reduced my limits to something stupid like $250.

[ensign_lee]

Man, that Oakland TD drive saved my ass. Could have been a baaaaad day otherwise. GOOOO RAIDAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSS!

[ensign_lee]

Last pick to close out the week:

New England Patriots -3.5 (-103)
1 unit at Matchbook

Again, I like fading blitzing teams vs good QBs. I just feel like a defense that ordinarily blitzes is handing an advantage to the QB. Plus, I think the loss of Jimmy Leonard for the Jets has not been factored into this line.

[ensign_lee]

Err, guess that wasn't the last pick lol.

New England Patriots +.5 (+100)
Risking 7.8 units

[ensign_lee]

And Pats/Jets UNDER 21 (2nd Half) (-107)
1 unit at Matchbook

Well, if Pinnacle is willing to take the bet...

[bigspenda73]

looooooooooooooool you're cleaning up on this game

[ensign_lee]

In the words of BigRed

TOOOOOOOOMMMMM BRADDY!!!