BVB slight overjam on the river ($55 FO)

[donkbee]

SB and Hero have around 300 hands together and Hero is running about 14/12 with 5.5 3bet over that sample. There is no notable history between the players.

SB's steal percentage in the SB is ~40%.

What should SB's calling range be on the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 55 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t5150)
CO (t4065)
Button (t4184)
SB (t3185)
Hero (BB) (t4384)
UTG (t4350)
UTG+1 (t2632)
MP1 (t3040)
MP2 (t2765)

Preflop: Hero is BB with x,x
7 folds, SB bets t240, Hero calls t160

Flop: (t480) Q, 8, 10 (2 players)
SB bets t240, Hero calls t240

Turn: (t960) 4 (2 players)
SB bets t480, Hero calls t480

River: (t1920) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t3424 (All-In), SB calling range (2225 behind)?

[fulksy]

not to sure, seems like you would raise flop with FD, especially since lots of your FDs in your range would incl. a straight draw or have a pair or have and overcard. so i would discount flushes a bit for you, and you would of raised a set/ 2 pair on such a wet board. and i don't mind his check cause it looks like a good bluff card for you. so i guess he's calling with flushes/J9/sets/AQ/Q10/Q8/over pair

[drmcboy]

I'd call with AQ+ for sure and time bank KQ while I considered how many other tables I have going.

[fulksy]

yea i guess we would 3 bet AQ preflop lots, so i would include KQ

[Rondavu]

I think he calls with as little as top pair no kicker a lot. People don't often respect this in a "blind battle" as much as you would like. You get payed off a ton when you have the flush.

[donkbee]

I thought that people would assume Hero's range is either nuts or air if he pushes here.

I don't really expect the villain to fold any TP, but is it safe to assume that most people will fold second pair here a lot? Or would the typical reg fold with second pair even if the bet is just half pot on the river?

I feel like a half pot bet on the river gets called by a wide range but maybe I'm wrong.

[Micro2Macro]

the only air you really have in your range by the river is AJ

if he thinks your capable of turning the lower end of your pairs into bluffs then I guess c/c with AQ/KQ is alright but thats really all he beats and you have sd value with any pair against AJ/KJ/AK that double barreled and is giving up so im guessing you'd probably just check behind with most 1 pair hands you didn't feel you could vbettt altho it would be a real awesome play to jam J8 or T9.

sb appears to never have 2pair+ given his turn sizing...if that's true he'd have to make a 'big call' for his donkament life so long as you havent been fucking with him bvb cuz as someone mentioned people tend to give less respect in these spots - even if it means throwing hand reading and recollection of recent history/game flow completely out the window. so yeah if he thinks you're bluffing enough to call he should call any Qx because the 1pair hands you'd prolly start bluffing with would be Tx and i dont think you are value shoving QJ here like ever.

[donkbee]

good post, thanks.

[fjuanl]

What do you guys think of the sizing on river? I agree that SB mostly is going to have a very weak bluffcatcher or air. If he's aware that his line looks like that, he might expect you to make a smaller value bet

If you would have gotten it in with all your good combodraws on flop, you probably are bluffing too much as played. Both AJ and KJ are in your range and mostly your value range is A2s, A3s, A4s, A6s, A7s, 76s. That's a ton of bluff combos if you decide to bluff every time on that river, which might not be a huge problem in practice. Even if you could have AQ, KQ, QJ, you still have too many bluffing combos if your looking to be balanced. Unless I'm doing the math wrong you would need to bluff 35% to be balanced; with QJ-AQ and those flushes, your bluffing 43%