87s 3 handed - I raise, smaller stack shoves

[ManicLombax]

Clear fold on the bubble. What do you all think 3 handed? If I put SB on about the top 8% of hands I have 32.6% equity. Pot odds are right about 2:1 making it really close. Do you gamble here or give it up? Should I have just open shoved here (or open fold for that matter)?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.4 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 25 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t4508)
SB (t3426)
BB (t5566)

Hero's M: 6.68

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 7
Hero bets t1000, SB raises to t3401 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ?

[taipan168]

Personally I would probably just open fold in this situation, and unless I had a monster hand that I'd be fist pump calling if somebody shoved over my raise, I'd just shove it in the first place.

As played, even though you're past the bubble there is still an ICM effect:
- If you fold you will have 3483 chips worth 30.8% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 8359 chips worth 42.4% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you will have 1082 chips worth 23.8% of the prize pool.

Therefore, you need to be (30.8-23.8)/(42.4-23.8) = 37.6% to win against opp's range to make this a good call (ie. there is still an ICM tax of about 4% in this spot). I'll run some other ranges later, but if we accept your 8% range then this is a fold.

[d0zer]

I don't venture into the SnG forum very often so I could be wrong here, but with stack sizes, if we plan on folding to a shove, aren't we better minraising BU, folding it, or just open shoving vs 2.5x/folding?

[dneureiter]

I don't venture into the SnG forum very often so I could be wrong here, but with stack sizes, if we plan on folding to a shove, aren't we better minraising BU, folding it, or just open shoving vs 2.5x/folding?

It really depends on the players in blinds. This is a shove never since we're 9 + 13 bb effective and if they are 3betting alot they are probably calling alot. I don't hate open to 800-1000 (maybe it's me but I feel 1000 gets enough folds to be worth the extra 200 chips) as long as blinds are tight and you dont have a maniac image. I definately fold now esp since you've prob got a skill advantage.

Reads please though if you are debating pre. either way is fine if you have a reason for opening or folding.

[d0zer]

It really depends on the players in blinds. This is a shove never since we're 9 + 13 bb effective and if they are 3betting alot they are probably calling alot.

If they're shoving over an open a lot, they're probably doing that with a wider range than they're calling a shove with, unless they're total maniac monkeys, and how are we 13BB effective?

[ManicLombax]

Sorry forgot to post reads on these guys. Both were pretty loose aggressive, but not maniacs. I hadn't seen much 3-betting. I put SB on 8% because I didn't see him shoving over with things like KQo considering I was pretty close to priced in to calling here. My thought process at the time was something like "I'm 60/40 or so if he's got two over cards. I'm crushed if he's got an overpair, so subtract a little and we must be close to 2:1. Plus always a small percent he's bluffing but less likely since I'm close to priced in and have him covered slightly."

[ManicLombax]

I don't venture into the SnG forum very often so I could be wrong here, but with stack sizes, if we plan on folding to a shove, aren't we better minraising BU, folding it, or just open shoving vs 2.5x/folding?

That's a really good point. I opened just thinking I have a decent hand and I'm on the button. I hadn't thought about what I do if either of them shoves over. I think dneureiter is right that the extra 200 chips gets more folds, but it sure put me in a bad spot here in terms of stack sizes and pot odds. I'm thinking now if I'm going to open with these stack sizes, 800 makes my decisions a lot easier.

[LuckySlevin]

You should be in push/fold mode here. With an M of almost 7 just open shove unless you're trying to induce a weaker player to play back at you with misperceived fold equity. I wouldn't play 78(s) in this position but I would play 9T(s).

As played you have to call this off imo.

[Acemonk]

That surely is a tempting limp call there!!

[ManicLombax]

You should be in push/fold mode here. With an M of almost 7 just open shove unless you're trying to induce a weaker player to play back at you with misperceived fold equity.

Not sure I agree we have to be in push/fold mode here with M almost 7 - getting close for me but not quite. I'm thinking I have a decent but not great hand, so I'll take down the blinds and I'll have a somewhat playable hand if I get a call. The problem I overlooked when I played this hand was the effective M's though. SB's M is about 5 which obviously put me in a bad spot when he shoved over. If the stack sizes were all equal so effective M was 7 I would have grumbled and folded when SB shoved over me.

Then again taipan agrees with you so maybe push/fold is better.

Interesting thread I think, thanks for all the replies so far.

[dneureiter]

If they're shoving over an open a lot, they're probably doing that with a wider range than they're calling a shove with, unless they're total maniac monkeys, and how are we 13BB effective?

I count bad / assumed we covered them both. Put this in sng wiz and it's not going to be profitable shoving from the button, especially since these guys are prob going to call a little lighter than they should.

Assuming they call default which is 17% we can profitably shove
A5s+, A8o+, 44+,KJs+,

Even if they are calling tighter shoving is just going to be breakeven and increase variance

[PokerWang]

Fold. I would've never bet in the first place.