tp+fd vs. turn check-raise

[baudib]

I'm interested less in the specifics of playing this hand, but let's talk about PFR cbetting, then check-raising the turn. Don't know anything about this guy, was the second time he had raised in 5 hands at the table.

I'd like to know who started this, because I am seeing this approximately 1,000,000XX214123 times more often in the past few months than the previous 5 years combined.

I suppose it's a natural counter to constant floats, but it's going on so much that I must have missed someone making this popular....

In showdowns I'm rarely seeing nut-like hands but just good 1-pair hands or big draws. What's your experience with this?

No Limit Holdem Tournament
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$16,500 Guarantee

Stacks:
UTG (9,980)
UTG+1 (4,530)
MP1 (4,385)
Hero (MP2) (10,420)
MP3 (2,605)
CO (3,375)
BTN (7,092)
SB (2,885)
BB (3,665)

Blinds: 50/100

Pre-Flop: (150, 9 players) Hero is MP2
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 245, 1 fold, Hero calls 245, 5 folds

Flop: (640, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets 305, Hero calls 305

Turn: (1,250, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 600, [color=#cc0000]UTG+1 goes all-in 3,980

[fulksy]

i actually see that lots as well, but have seen it with a balance of nut type hands, TP type hands and draws, so i don't really know here. as played to turn i probably fold, you have blockers to lots of his draws so probably weighted a bit more to made hands(maybe some air) but your not beating many of his made hands.

also i fold preflop, but your probably better post so not sure if its bad.

i usually raise flop.

[drmcboy]

I can't fold turn - I gave him all combos of AK and 55 along with AcQc and AsTs and we have 33%. so F him.

In answer to your general question I think it's

sample size

games are tougher

you're playing higher than you did 5 years ago

in some order.



In addition to floats, people are thinking more about (all these are similar/related)

stack sizes

what range people will call 3 barrels with vs call this jam with

how lots of rivers may look bad to him/me so let's get the money in now

realizing that JTss plays much better than AK OTR and that JTss will have a hard time not betting the turn when we check.

[drmcboy]

@ fulksy - when you raise flop are you hoping better folds or worse calls?

[fulksy]

Got It. Thanks dr.

would you raise (bluff) if say flop was Qs 9h 5s?

[baudib]

thanks doc, interesting way to look at it

fulksy -- I guess doc answered already but seems like there's way too much poker to be played to raise with this hand; he's 3-betting the flop with a ton of better hands and I'd like to keep him in with AQ and if he has air he may bluff a spade. I'd probably only raise this flop with 2pair+/JTss/AT-Jss.

[fulksy]

yep as soon as i read docs post i knew where i was wrong.

[baudib]

I think this stove is realistic/perhaps slightly pessimistic. I'm surprised at the result; basically the only worse one-pair hands he has are AQ and the free-rolled KJ combos and we're still at 40% on the turn.

Board: Kh Qs 5s 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.284% 34.32% 05.97% 604 105.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 59.716% 53.75% 05.97% 946 105.00 { QQ+, 55, AQs+, AsJs, AsTs, KJs+, JTs, AKo, KJo+ }

[drmcboy]

yes, I would raise Qs9sx boards almost always, in that spot you can not only fold better, you can get called by worse draws and if he has something like TT or 9x even if he calls I don't like his chances much.

[baudib]

so without FD do we need AK+ to call here?

This story has a happy ending btw

Hero calls 3,380

River: (9,210, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 9,210
UTG+1 shows a pair of Kings

Hero shows a flush, King high


Hero wins 9,210 (net +4,680)

[fulksy]

NH

[caddie444]

Pre is pretty loose I would fold it

The problem with the turn is that you don't know why you're betting

[baudib]

pre - I may be in too EP to play this but the table was not very squeezy.

My default thinking, and this is really the reason I posted this, is that no one checks a better hand (AK+) on this turn card. I may need to reassess my thinking given how often I am seeing this line.

This seems to be a Well Ahead/Barely Behind situation but we can get value from the few hands that have 4+ outs (Qx, JT, NFD).

[drmcboy]

I call pre 100%, either it's a loose open and you may be ahead or it's a tight open and they'll c/f a lot and or give up the turn a bunch. And it's a good multi way hand if everyone hops in behind you.

if you don't feel like you can play KJs profitably in position vs a random I think it's an unregister. This is a top 10% hand and plays better than hands like 99 which are 'ahead' % wise. If you're folding KJs what are you calling with? I would 3 bet before I'd fold.

Make people squeeze before you assume it. Make people fire 3 barrels with air OOP before you assume they can.