$6.50 turbo, AQo UTG flatted by shortstack and 3-bet by drooler

[baudib]

Default would be fold here given that I raised UTG but the likelihood that MP comes along with a dominated hand + nonzero FE + BTN has played 6 of 7 hands raising twice so far = jam?

No Limit Holdem Tournament
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo)

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) (2,295)
UTG+1 (2,245)
MP1 (475)
MP2 (1,045)
CO (1,400)
BTN (3,100)
SB (1,450)
BB (1,490)

Blinds: 25/50

Pre-Flop: (75, 8 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to 150, 2 folds, MP2 calls 150, 1 fold, BTN raises to 500, 2 folds, [color=#cc0000]

[fulksy]

yea standard is fold, but against a btn who seems like a huge donk, shoving is probably fine.

[dneureiter]

Seems like a super easy fold. AQ has pretty horrible equity 3-way and it's unlikely the shortstack will fold very often. Your reads on button are not very clear but if he isn't a total maniac his 3betting range dominates you pretty hard. He looks to be more passive unless you have seen showdowns to indicate otherwise. How did he double up? I don't think we have much fold equity either since he seems to be on the stationy side and he probably at least has a "pretty" hand.


equity
Hand 0: 24.648% { AQo }
Hand 1: 30.952% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 44.399% { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }


equity
Hand 0: 37.491% { AQo }
Hand 1: 62.509% { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }


I'd be more tempted if we had ~1500 effective vs button.

[Nakamura]

Seems like a super easy fold. AQ has pretty horrible equity 3-way and it's unlikely the shortstack will fold very often. Your reads on button are not very clear but if he isn't a total maniac his 3betting range dominates you pretty hard. He looks to be more passive unless you have seen showdowns to indicate otherwise. How did he double up? I don't think we have much fold equity either since he seems to be on the stationy side and he probably at least has a "pretty" hand.


equity
Hand 0: 24.648% { AQo }
Hand 1: 30.952% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 44.399% { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }


equity
Hand 0: 37.491% { AQo }
Hand 1: 62.509% { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }


I'd be more tempted if we had ~1500 effective vs button.

I'm inclined to agree here. If we shove and he calls with everything, then we are investing 2145 to win 2510, so we need to 44.5% against his range.

Against a 99+,ATs+,AJo+ range we have 43.90% equity. If we have a little FE, then we can shove.

It's so close though that I think folding is the correct option at this point.

[fulksy]

obviously way way to small sample, but i think that range is to tight for a guy in 6 of 7 hands.

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.064% 38.73% 06.33% 53723418 8778374.00 { AcQs }
Hand 1: 54.936% 48.61% 06.33% 67416458 8778374.00 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }

with some FE and chance MP2 calls (which probably wouldn't be better then AQ) i think ishove is ok.

[Nakamura]

The OP doesn't say he's re-raised twice. There's no way to know for sure, but he looks like a passive player who has a reasonable hand. I'm prepared to lay it down and maybe make a small mistake given the average quality of a $6.50 field.

[fulksy]

yea thats a good point

[taipan168]

I'd shove over if I'd seen the "drooler" 3-bet with hands like KQo and ATs, but otherwise I'd fold it. Naka makes a good point that raising <<< 3-betting even for donks like this.