Flopped the nuts, shove the turn? ($16)

[Nakamura]

I don't have stats immediately available but casting my mind back, MP1 and MP2 were both pretty fishy.

Given the board texture I raised enough on the flop to shove the turn, but the turn card really isn't great. If we shove we might just lose any Ax type hands. We would get some value out of KJ, KQ, AT but KT just got there with a full house (I assume AK raises PF). Based on his play, I think flush draws form a significant part of villain's range here too, especially if they plopped something on the flop.

Given that we are calling an all-in on the river anyway, do we shove and try extract value from stubborn Ax hands, flush draws etc. or call a river shove / shove on the river ourselves?

No Limit Holdem Tournament
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$15+$1

Stacks:
UTG (1,480)
UTG+1 (1,500)
MP1 (1,500)
MP2 (1,610)
MP3 (1,490)
CO (1,470)
Hero (1,470)
SB (1,480)
BB (1,500)

Blinds: 10/20

Pre-Flop: (30, 9 players) Hero is BTN Q J
2 folds, MP1 calls 20, MP2 calls 20, MP3 calls 20, 1 fold, Hero calls 20, SB calls 10, BB checks

Flop: 10 A K (120, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets 100, MP3 calls 100, Hero raises to 450, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls 350, MP3 folds

Turn: K (1,120, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero ???

[Ghaleon]

Given the pre-flop action AA, KK, and AK probably won't show up here.

If he has any King, it doesn't matter what you do, he will get his chips in. He's obviously not worried about the hearts, and he shouldn't be given your raise on the flop.

Also, with your "fishy" read, and his call on the flop, he probably has an Ace. AQ, AJ, AT, are possible, but weaker aces are also likely.

Heart draw? Maybe, but nothing he's done so far really fits that hand range. If he's fishy and just chasing, what can you do? Whatever bet you make now, he makes a bad call with the hearts.

If he has KT, you just go broke and live with it.

All things considered I think you bet, but don't shove. Most of his range will re-raise you all in anyway. A strong ace, or any king are getting their chips in no matter what you do. But the weaker aces, and flush draws might fold if you shove.

[Lee J90]

well you definatly dont want to check when in this position as you will be giving him a free card, however i do see your dilema here as it is a tricky situation to be in,

After the turn came another king personally here i would of played it small ball since if he did hit a FH he would be calling you regardless also if he has hit a set he is still likely to be calling you so my advice here would be...considering the size of your stack at this point which would be around 1030 i would bet out around 200, and wait to see what he does,
If he calls then checks it back to you on the river id simply check it myself and go to a showdown.
If he re raises on the turn then i would say he has a big hand since he's check raised you but keep in mind that its still early in the tournament and considering the size of the blinds you really wont know much about this player just yet, so.... is he one of the player types who go mad at the start of a tourney just to get ahead quickly like alot of other players do or is he a solid player? Just remember a solid player aint gonna limp in MP with high cards, you gonna get a raise and since he limped in pre flop, opened the pot in bad position with a bet off 100 in a 120 pot, now this is aggresive,

After the turn, play small ball and see what he does, if he re raises all in i would still call and see how i do,
Its upto you and how you feel against this player, just remember after the hand regardless of what the turn out was, take notes on these players for future play.

Hope i didnt bore anyone with this lol and good luck at the tables..

[Ghaleon]

i would bet out around 200, and wait to see what he does,
If he calls then checks it back to you on the river id simply check it myself and go to a showdown.

I would bet bigger. Are we ever folding to a check raise here? And the only way I'm folding the river is if it's another A or K and he jams. Ax and Kx are sooo much of his range here and we want to get paid for our straight.

If he just calls our raise on the turn, and then checks the river, why would you ever check behind? Check/call/check is not a line you see alot with a full house. you need to value-bet the straight.

If he re raises on the turn then i would say he has a big hand since he's check raised you

Yeah but remember, based on our play so far, he has to think that an ace is a big partof our range. So if he also has an ace, he has to believe that he has us out-kicked, or is at least chopping. If he has a king, he would obviously check-raise because he feels he has us crushed. I think we beat ALOT of his check-raising range.

I would bet about 500 here. He almost never folds, and it forces him to pay us off with alot of weaker hands when we shove a non-A or non-K river.

[Nakamura]

...when in this position as you will be giving him a free card...

I'm not as worried about the free card as I am about failing to extract value from a FD. If I check I allow FD's off the hook and to check-fold the river if it's a non-heart.

That said the Ah and Kh are both out already and he could only a FD with something like JhTh or 8h7h.

[drmcboy]

shove, the board is not going to get better for Ax on the river and against anything else shoving makes more sense.

it's a limped pot with a fish so pretty much any two hearts are in range.