99 bad flop, weird stack sizes

[baudib]

villain is terrible, running like 63/10 over a sample of 60 hands. In an earlier hand, we played HU after he limped from CO and I checked in BB, I donk-led 2nd pair on a raggy flop, he called and we checked to river where i won (he had 2nd pair no kicker).

No Limit Holdem Tournament
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo)

Stacks:
UTG (2,995)
UTG+1 (1,810)
Hero (MP1) (2,390)
MP2 (1,105)
CO (1,080)
BTN (1,395)
SB (1,230)
BB (1,495)

Blinds: 80/160

Pre-Flop: (240, 8 players) Hero is MP1
2 folds, Hero raises to 420, 4 folds, BB calls 260

Flop: (920, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero?

[fulksy]

i think shove pre with effective stack being at most 9 bb's, with villains stats much worse will call.

[baudib]

i definitely thought about that and it's top option in most cases but with a player that bad i thought i'd get more chips out of him that way because he'll call wide and we can outplay him postfop.

yeah i think he'll call it all off with A7/22 but he'll call a raise with 96s.

now how exactly do i outplay him on this flop?

[Ghaleon]

Seems to me that if he's that bad, he might check it down with Ace rag. If he bluffs on a later street and you have to fold, I guess that's your punishment for not shoving pre.

Does he really call off his whole tournament here with Ace high or 88? I've seen crazier shit, but I wouldn't count on it.

Also, based on your read, you shouldn't have a problem shoving on a later hand and getting called when you have the best of it.

I think your window of opportunity to win this hand closed. Just check/fold and hope he checks it down with 88

[Nakamura]

First off, your PF raise size seems too much if you want action. FWIW I shove PF.

We are calling any bets on river or turn aren't we? So betting seems best as it folds hands that have equity against us if they make it to turn or river. We obviously aren't folding a K or J here though.

Stacks are not deep enough to out-play opponents as we are committed to any hand if we see a flop. Out-playing generally means we are going to get an opponent to fold a better hand, which is never happening in this spot.

[fulksy]

Guess follow through with plan, doesn't seem like a player that will bluff turn so shove here.

[baudib]

I'll agree I made a mistake pre then, the problem is this type of player is going to have all sorts of hands he shouldn't here, including really good ones.

[baudib]

First off, your PF raise size seems too much if you want action. FWIW I shove PF.

OK, results-oriented, I'm not sure this is correct. I think a smaller raise is going to get him to call with close to 100% of hands and this type raise narrows his calling down to maybe 80%.

[Nakamura]

We dominate the last 20% of his hands. We want them to call!

[baudib]

excellent point but we want to maximize our profits from the rest of his range?

[dneureiter]

It's really hard to outplay people with a little over a pot-sized bet behind + there just aren't that many great boards for 9s. I'd rather do this with a hand that flops equity like a suited connector or AA that it always gonna be good to get it in on the flop.
Making it a little bit smaller pre would give some more maneuverability but still not enough to make it workwhile.
Also you are losing value vs hands like A2, and small pairs which may fold on the flop.

I think the only reason I would standard raise 99 with 9 bbs would be to induce a resteal but I'd rather be in later position, otherwise just shoving and moving on.

As played . . . We can't really check flop and fold to aggression on turn, we are never getting him to fold any hand with equity (Jack, fd, gutshot+over) on the flop. I guess shove if he is a station or else click a random button I suppose.

[RiverMonster]

I don't see the need to complicate this situation. We have 99, were not in great position, and all effective stacks left to bet are 10BB or less. By rule we are in push/fold mode so........push or fold.

Even a Donk can catch a K or a J in the BB. Therefore, as played no set - no bet. Check it down. We still have plenty of chips to win this one

[RiverMonster]

I don't see the need to complicate this situation. We have 99, were not in great position, and all effective stacks left to bet are 10BB or less. By rule we are in push/fold mode so........push or fold.

Even a Donk can catch a K or a J in the BB. Therefore, as played no set - no bet. Check it down. We still have plenty of chips to win this one

[Nakamura]

no set - no bet.

This only applies when we are set-mining, which is clearly not the case in this spot.

[RiverMonster]

I think I understand Nakamura, but if we choose to play 99 in this situation we should have a plan. I think our choices are 1) set mine in which case we should limp or 2) get all of our chips in the middle by pushing or using a stop and go. There really should not be a decision to make at this point. Am I way off base here?

[Nakamura]

IMO set mining at anything over 15/30 is usually a bad idea. In fact, I feel it's almost always a sub-optimal play. If you play a certain style, it's ok but in general I'd rather small ball lots of hands than limp lots of hands.

Set-mining advice that is usually thrown around for beginners because it's easy to play and beginners don't always grasp when to c-bet or check-fold etc. IMO Set-mining should be used in very specific cases and not as a standard play every time we are dealt a PP.

Anyway, you cannot set mine here because we are well over 15/30 and our opponents aren't deep enough anyway. Standard raising is ok in these spots as it gives opponents chance to spazz out and spew, but we are never getting away from a hand when we put in 1/3 the effective stack. The plan is always to shove the flop if we get called, although the two high overs makes Hero think twice about shoving.

If we knew a bit about the villain, like he might bluff-shove if we check, we should check to him. I need a very good read here otherwise we are just giving him a free card to suck out and beat our hand. Given the info I have here, I shove and tilt when calls with J8o.

Last thought, if there were a couple of stacks over 13BB I think the best action is to fold PF. Our stack size sucks for getting 3-bet and I don't think we can call a 3-bet. TT is probably what I'd choose to raise with.