SB shoves

[Nakamura]

I'm wondering if a small leak has drifted into my SB shoving game. According to WIZ Hero should shove in this spot unless villain is loose enough to call more than 17% of the time. I normally fold in this spot. Do we fold to preserve FE in future hands, do we shove against a random and not so wide against a regular (since they will notice we are shoving very wide for 13BB)? Do we standard raise and fold to a shove?

17% = 33+, A3s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo, which seems too loose to me. If we shove 80% of hands, then the correct response is for him to call with 30% of hands. I don't believe that most opponents will call this wide and not even with 17% of hands as they are usually not putting us on such a wide shoving range.

If he calls a with a more reasonable 12% of hands (44+, A7s+, KQs, A9o+), then the shove is worth 0.22% equity. For the record, at a $16 game that is worth $0.30 or 1.9% ROI. It seems like I might be out by a decimal, but I don't see where.

Calc:

EqP: 18.94
EqF: 18.72

% prize pool if push = 0.1894 * $135 = $25.57
% prize pool if fold = 0.1872 * $135 = $25.27

% Diff = $0.30

ROI = $0.30/$16 = 1.9%

[baudib]

Given these stack sizes and positions I think a BB calling range of around 20% is about standard.