Middle stages good stack, loosing from sets ALL the time...

[stardustakos]

Am I making a mistake commiting on the pot? This hand is an example:

I don't have reads cause I have just been moved to this table.

PartyGaming - $2+$0|150/300 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: 13,149.00
BTN: 10,150.00
SB: 4,743.00
BB: 12,938.00
Hero (UTG): 12,997.00
UTG+1: 26,547.00
MP: 4,850.00
MP+1: 3,379.00
LP: 29,277.00

CO posts ante 30.00, BTN posts ante 30.00, SB posts ante 30.00, BB posts ante 30.00, Hero posts ante 30.00, UTG+1 posts ante 30.00, MP posts ante 30.00, MP+1 posts ante 30.00, LP posts ante 30.00, SB posts SB 150.00, BB posts BB 300.00

Pre Flop: (720.00) Hero has K A

Hero raises to 700.00, UTG+1 calls 700.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (2120.00, 2 players) 7 6 A
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

Turn: (2120.00, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 1,413.00, UTG+1 calls 1,413.00

River: (4946.00, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 3,297.00, UTG+1 raises to 7,200.00

[fulksy]

are you checking the flop to try and c/r? I'm not sure he bets this flop enough with no reads but i think he might call with a PP, and might raise a weaker ace. i think i just bet out on flop.

after you took a weaker looking line i can never fold on the river.

obv set of 7's

[stardustakos]

Yes I am. I usually bet the flop, depending on the opponent. I remember that I saw him showing marginal holdings at the few hands he showed down in my brief stay at the table, so I think he was comfy with his big stack, playin many hands. Maby giving him the chance to bluff or to bet w somrthing like K7.

Anyway the main issue here is that when I bet the river and he raises, I suspect a set but I know that he might have something like AQ,AJ even AT and I beat him and also it happened before many times.
But lately I keep running into sets...

I will post some more hands with differend lines so you can tell me what you think

[fulksy]

he could have a set of 4/7 but weaker aces, PP (turning into a bluff) and air make up more of his range.

[drmcboy]

bet flop with all of you range except some weak Ax and KK/QQ.

As played it's hard to believe he's played AQ this way, I would just bet fold or c/c. if you're going to call a raise, you should bet smaller both so you lose less and to encourage a bluff.

I think c/c is best because it lets him bluff 98 or maybe 7x. And if he's stacking off with worse Ax he'll for sure bet them anyway.

Re read your post - you said first this is a set 90%, then suddenly there is enough chance he has something else by the river that you have to call off 10k. One of those two ideas is wrong for sure. It's probably more important you decide which one is correct and believe it than to get the 'right' answer. TPTK OOP with no reads 60BBs is going to be a tough spot pretty often no matter what.

[fulksy]

i definitely agree c/c is best on river.

but as played he can't fold here?

[drmcboy]

I think you're saying since we checked the flop he may stack off with AQ-? If that's true, why do you think betting the flop is good?

I mean anything is possible in a $2 MTT i guess but I think if you're going to make this large of a bet it's because you want max value from worse Ax and can confidently fold to a raise.


OP I edited your post to remove results.

[fulksy]

not necessarily i think his range otr could include pp(turning them into a bluff), air, or possibly worse Ax (although i agree less likely). I'm betting flop because i think we can get value from Ax, pp's, and maybe 89. after we check the flop and he checks back he might think its less likely we have an ace and a better chance he can get us off a better PP, and if he did have Ax (a lot of players ($2) think that betting this flop after getting checked to folds out everything, so elect to trap with AQetc.) he might think he now might be able to get value from a PP.


my line would be b/b/b here.

[drmcboy]

can you parse that a bit? I'm not sure what you're saying.

[stardustakos]

Dr you are right. Dont foget i am greek thus very emotional sometimes and that is incopatible with poker. The last few days it happened repeatedly (TPTK and two pair vs set) so I posted this. Let me rephrase: If you let out suckouts, when I have a decent stack midgame I very often bump into a set. What you posted makes sense as always.

Here is another hand early game, 120BB stack...


PartyGaming - $5+$1|60/120 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: 9,140.00
UTG: 13,820.00
Hero (UTG+1): 14,980.00
MP: 3,130.00
MP+1: 13,965.00
LP: 3,690.00
CO: 7,860.00
BTN: 12,345.00
SB: 9,668.00

SB posts SB 60.00, BB posts BB 120.00

Pre Flop: (180.00) Hero has A 2

fold, Hero raises to 300.00, fold, fold, LP calls 300.00, CO calls 300.00, fold, SB calls 240.00, fold

Flop: (1320.00, 4 players) 2 A 9
SB checks, Hero bets 880.00, LP calls 880.00, CO raises to 7,560.00 and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 6,680.00, fold

Turn: (17320.00, 2 players) T

River: (17320.00, 2 players) 4

[drmcboy]

when you go out of a tourney you're going to have a good hand and someone has a better hand or you'll have the better hand and lose. That's what it is. If you want it to happen less, work some more bluff shoves into your game.

In the second hand you posted folding would be a gigantic mistake.

Saying stuff like "I'm greek so I tilt" is a warning sign. There is no good reason to tilt playing poker. We all do it now and then, but giving yourself a blanket excuse to do it is a really terrible way to start off.

[stardustakos]

I know Dr, believe me I am working on it.... I am going to post more hands and leave the rest out of the game. Thanks

[surviva316]

Why are you opening AKs UTG for a smaller relative size than you're opening A2s in MP when you're very deep in both hands at such a low bi tourney?