$3.40 Q7o bubble 200-400

[Onfire71]

Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200.00/t400.00 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 1222612
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): t1485.00 3.71 BBs - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 2.5, Hands: 6545
CO: t875.00 2.19 BBs - VPIP: 10, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 1.0, Hands: 129
BTN: t8740.00 21.85 BBs - VPIP: 32, PFR: 14, 3B: 3, AF: 5.0, Hands: 129
SB: t2400.00 6 BBs - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 129

Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is BB with 7 Q
CO raises to t850, BTN calls t850, 2 folds

Me and CO were in a fold war.. both playing very tight.. blind level just increased and CO pushes all-in.. BTN was kinda abusing the bubble.. so I think he's call here is also pretty wide.. Anyway Wiz says to fold here and call only 33.0% if CO push 55% and BTN BS calls about 44%..

So it's a fold.. but I was wondering if it's really a terrible move to shove here? Cuz in that way if BTN or me wins I finish 3rd or better and only when CO wins I'll be 4th unless CO wins and I win sidepot vs BTN I might still have a small chance.. Aside from that I don't have any fold equity after my BB with about 2bb left..

[T00LZ]

I think that a shove here would be a gamble, might work out this time, but in the long run doing this will have you bleeding chips and out of the money more often than not. I would Let the big stack take out the small stack and squeak into the money. That way if CO does win, it doesn't put you out.

If I was running this low on the bubble, I'd want to be the one putting all my chips in first, not the other way around.

[Nakamura]

Great spot to call. Button is calling in this spot because he wants you to call and collude to knock out the CO. Shoving is a mistake here because BTN is not usually folding, and we wouldn't want him to, but there is an occasion where we shove, BTN calls and the CO wins the pot, BTN comes second and knocks us out.

I'd rather keep the BTN in the hand and try get to a show-down without risking the our whole stack. If we whiff the flop, we can always fold and still retain some equity in the tournament.

[T00LZ]

I'd see a call if your stack was, um... well nourished, but to possibly triple up the CO and leave yourself as the short stack on the bubble with only 1.5x BB? Where if we fold were left with 2.7x BB free to play

The stats show CO as Tighter than the rest, I get the impression that he's been waiting a while for a hand. My guess is Ax, Kx, or of course PP is more than possible. They have to expect to be called.

On second though, being so low it might not be a bad point to call, it would be pretty hard to come back in these blinds.

I still am not sure, but now it looks bad either way.

[Nakamura]

It's only 450 chips to call and CO has to beat two hands to stay alive. The situation is just too good to fold IMO.