88 hit set on turn, bad river card vs fish

[stardustakos]

All players are in almost every pot, opponent got luckier and has the stack here. He leads all streets and the river is awful, so the shove on the river means the nuts(?) Could he shove a Q, or two pair often enough to justify a call?. mean I am dead w just a 7. (I think QQ and 99 are possible but not likely).


PokerStars - $3+$0.30|15/30 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: 3,368.00
BTN: 2,920.00
SB: 2,670.00
BB: 1,835.00
Hero (UTG): 4,447.00
MP: 5,880.00

SB posts SB 15.00, BB posts BB 30.00

Pre Flop: (45.00) Hero has 8 8

Hero calls 30.00, MP calls 30.00, CO raises to 180.00, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 150.00, fold

Flop: (435.00, 2 players) 5 6 Q
Hero checks, CO bets 270.00, Hero calls 270.00

Turn: (975.00, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, CO bets 450.00, Hero calls 450.00

River: (1875.00, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, CO bets 2,468.00 and is all-in, Hero ?

[drmcboy]

Assuming you were planning to check the river to him so he'd bluff, why would you change your mind now? If not, just bomb the turn.

[stardustakos]

I was. And get it in 5th street, if he bets first again RR him or if he checks value bet him. But when a card like that comes? Do we stick with the plan?

[KoRnholio]

That river card isn't nearly as bad as you seem to think it is.

He raised preflop and bet that flop. There's really very few hands in his range that include a 7 in them. Really the only time he has a straight here is if he luckboxed a hand like JT or 77. However, there's a much much higher chance that he has one of a number of other hands instead. Anything from pure bluffs, to value bet top pairs/overpairs, even lower sets is possible.

[fjuanl]

What this guy said ^^

Raise preflop. There's almost no situation where open limping>raising

It helps to think about hand combos here. There's only 3 ways each to make QQ and 99. 6 ways to make 77. There's 16 ways to make AK

[drmcboy]

also not that it's impossible for him to have JT/T7 but that and bluffs are the only hands that make sense** with his sizing, you would think a bare 7 would want to bet less to get value from two pair etc.

**not saying this sizing is best with JT/T7, but it makes sense if he thinks you won't call without a 7 regardless and won't fold a 7 no matter what he bets.

[pantherhound]

just re the hand as played, timing seems important, this seems like one of those situations where a donk sees a check and thinks it's a license for them to bet without really understanding relative hand strength obv, so I would call.

the other day I got KK and raised pre in MP, guy called in BB, flop 87K, he ccs, turn J, he ccs, then river T, he donks out the rest of his stack for a about half pot after a 3 second pause. That was more of a cry call because he does have a few 9s in his range but he showed up with JT...