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Fifty50 Steal Spot...I guess?

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  1. #1

    Default Fifty50 Steal Spot...I guess?

    Reason For Steal
    I haven't been real active do my chip lead, but I observed
    -if I can steal a few blinds then I could hold my chip lead a far greater percentage of the time into 1st.
    -Just one double up of from 1 of 3 of the 8BB stack vs each other would knock me down to 2nd.
    Analysis Questions
    1)What hands should I consider stealing with in this spot?
    2)Should I steal?
    3)Villian stats are 22/11 over 44 hands WTSD/W$SD = 100/100 with 8 bb stack, do I still cbet/call shove once I hit any piece of flop?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 5.24 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 40 Ante (6 handed) - Pokerstars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (CO) (t5030)
    Button (t1245)
    SB (t1355)
    BB (t2545)
    UTG (t2505)
    MP (t2320)

    Hero's M: 7.29

    Preflop: Hero is CO with 5, 9
    2 folds, Hero bets t900, 2 folds, BB calls t600

    Flop: (t2190) 9, 3, 10 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets t4090 (All-In), BB calls t1605 (All-In)

    Turn: (t5400) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

    River: (t5400) J (2 players, 2 all-in)

    Total pot: t5400
  2. #2
    Edit: I'm stupid, don't listen to me.

    Edit 2: Don't worry so much about dropping to second if the short stacks double up. Having a 5k stack in the fifty50's will net you a pretty good return.

    I'd say check the flop back, since the BB called 1/4th of their stack pre, they'll probably be looking to call a shove/get it in on the turn at least.
    Last edited by Ender; 04-13-2011 at 02:04 AM.
  3. #3
    First of all, I'm not very good at 50/50s so take my advice with a pinch of salt. But here are a few things.

    1. I'm not really looking to steal anything and everything in these games. Even the densest opponents will realise you are robbing them blind if you raise every single hand, so consider folding your crap hands.
    2. Why are we raising 3x and considering folding? If you are going to think about folding post-flop, raise 2x or 2.25x. This will not change most people's decisions PF.
    3. You have hit a top 10% flop for your hand, I don't see how you can not bet the flop given how much there is in the pot and the passive line from your opponent. Part of the problem of raising 95s in the first place is it flops bad even when it flops good.
  4. #4
    It's practically your job to abuse the table if you're the big stack on the bubble - lots of chips to be picked up and it's definitely EV.

    There are however a number of problems here;

    1. The strength of your hand. I don't like to raise with just anything unless I'm on the button and very specific stack sizes are involved.
    2. Your position - raising into three rather than two increases the chances of a call.
    3. The fact that the BB stack size can really hurt you. Regardless of the bubble, idiots will call.

    Try and pick your spots for abuse and don't allow aggressive play to become maniac play. I've seen lots of people raising indiscriminately with big stacks and finishing out of the money.
    - You're the reason why paradise lost
  5. #5
    I like min-raising after 50/100 blinds...


    I think you need to decide which of the three medium stacks are tightest and attack his/her blind.

    I think 95 is way too weak here, I'd go for something like J9s+/Q9s+/K2s+/Axs+ type steal hands....
    Playing big pots at small stakes.

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