SNG Experiment 2 - Interesting Hand 2 (AQ)

[taipan168]

I thought that this was one of the most interesting hands of the tournament. I've posted this from the point of view of the player who had AQ and if you haven't read the HH then don't look at the results.

What does everybody think of the turn and river lines? Can anybody let it go on the turn?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 5.5 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t1575)
CO (t1485)
Button (t1455)
SB (t1605)
BB (t1410)
UTG (t1500)
Hero (UTG+1) (t1515)
MP1 (t1455)

Hero's M: 33.67

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, Q
1 fold, Hero bets t90, 3 folds, Button calls t90, 2 folds

Flop: (t225) 5, 7, A (2 players)
Hero bets t150, Button calls t150

Turn: (t525) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t350, Hero calls t350

River: (t1225) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t865 (All-In), Hero ????

[baudib]

Starting with the assumption that both players are solid, I think it's played perfectly.

The flop is super dry, I can't imagine someone solid playing AJ this way -- looks like villain doesn't expect you to fold an ace. It would be pretty sick if he's playing AQ this way hoping you'll fold a chop...

[Nakamura]

Agree, I pretty much guessed BTN had a huge hand here before the river line. While 55 and 77 are possibilities given the play, pairs shouldn't set mine in these spots given that Hero is considering folding TP with the 2nd best kicker! One has to figure that AK is the most likely hand, since AQ/AJ (if he even calls with those PF) usually, but not always, go for pot control here.

The most important decision is whether to fire the turn or check it back to the button. I think if the plan is to check it to the button, we should probably go ahead and fold to the turn bet. AJ is pretty unlikely given Hero's raising position and I think villain's range crushes us. I don't think the villain is bluffing enough in this spot to make a check-call profitable. Check-fold IMO.

I do have an unfair advantage in that I share quite a few hands with the BTN, so I know a few things about the way he plays!

[Hangson]

Against most villains on this dry board I will c/f on turn and bet on river if it is checked to in order to get two streets of value
Once we call the turn bet we have to call the river shove