A9, flops TP against other big stack ($16)

[Nakamura]

Villain is 23.4/6.8 over 400 hands. No other special reads on this player. The turn bet seems fairly large but calling and evaluating the river seems ok. What do we think of the river over-bet?

No Limit Holdem Tournament
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$15+$1

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) (4,225)
UTG+1 (1,280)
CO (1,450)
BTN (1,330)
SB (665)
BB (4,550)

Blinds: 100/200

Pre-Flop: (300, 6 players) Hero is UTG A 9
Hero raises to 450, 4 folds, BB calls 250

Flop: 8 2 A (1,000, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: K (1,000, 2 players)
BB bets 800, Hero calls 800

River: J (2,600, 2 players)
BB goes all-in 3,300, Hero???

[taipan168]

Why didn't you bet the flop? I know there's not much cost to giving a free card but worse hands will definitely call even though better ones will never fold.

As played, I think the turn call is fine and I definitely fold the river, there's way too much that beats you on that board and the ICM effect is horrible because of stack sizes.

PS. Good to see that you're still playing post-Black Friday...

[Nakamura]

Why didn't you bet the flop?

I felt like it wasn't too bad to give another card and we aren't getting value on two streets from a lot of worse hands. Checking seems to control the pot size for the times he pitches up with better hands, plus gives him a chance to catch something that makes him bluff or call a turn bet when he might fold to our flop bet.

I guess I didn't really see a lot of worse peeling a turn and a fair number of better hands like AQ-AT probably going for a check-raise on this flop.

[jyms]

The problem with this reasoning is your both talking about trying to control the pot and letting him bluff. This will make it hard to put him on a range and have us guessing.

[Fielmann]

AggF by street would be useful.

Checking behind has its merits. It's not like we could get three streets of value anyway. But if we check on flop we'll extract something on turn much more often for three reasons:

1) he'll have a chance to bluff OR call with worse, as compared to just calling with worse;
2) our range will appear weaker;
3) he may catch something.

Then again, considering the stack sizes I might want to play the hand more quickly and straightforwardly and bet anyway.

As played I'd also call on turn and fold on river, mostly for ICM-effect.

[Hangson]

I think checking behind on this flop is better than betting to exercise some sort of pot control.

As played I dun think he will ever shove worse than our hand on this board so it is a easy fold for me on river.

[taipan168]

What's wrong with the following line:
- Bet flop for 700 or so. If opp raises we are out of there (assuming he's not a laggtard).
- If he calls and checks the flop, we check behind (with the intention of calling a non-crazy river bet).
- If he calls and bets the turn, we re-evaluate but lean towards folding.

That way our pot control is exercised on the turn rather than the flop.

[Nakamura]

What's wrong with the following line:
- Bet flop for 700 or so. If opp raises we are out of there (assuming he's not a laggtard).
- If he calls and checks the flop, we check behind (with the intention of calling a non-crazy river bet).
- If he calls and bets the turn, we re-evaluate but lean towards folding.

That way our pot control is exercised on the turn rather than the flop.

I don't think there is anything wrong with your line. Personally I feel like both ways of playing the hand have some drawbacks and some advantages. Reading through the all comments, I feel like betting the flop in this spot might be superior than taking a checking line.

[Nekrogovner]

I would bet flop and turn, check-check river ideally. Any other raises or leadouts, I'm outta here.
The way you played it, he could be bluffing you, but i strongly doubt he would commit whole stack to sucha bluff, I'd rather put him on AJ, AK, or a set and happily fold. Basically, with river bet he is telling you "I'm a donk whos gonna bluff river with hole stack", while probably he isnt.