flopped nutz river pairs board 3 bet pot vs fishy.

[kickass]

given villains line do you still ship the river, do you fold pre? I feel this deep there is money to be made.
villain is 30/5 over 55. been winning quite a bit without showdown. not overly passive post.

what do you think he has?

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($13.28)
UTG+1 ($35.11)
MP1 ($30)
MP2 ($25)
MP3 ($26.42)
kick (CO) ($32.15)
BTN ($46.85)
SB ($26.59)
BB ($10.02)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 9 players) kick is CO
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, kick raises to $1, 3 folds, UTG+1 raises to $3, kick calls $2

Flop: ($6.35, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, kick bets $2.50, UTG+1 calls $2.50

Turn: ($11.35, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, kick bets $8, UTG+1 calls $8

River: ($27.35, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, [color=#cc0000][b]kick????

Im unsure of bet sizings, flop is kinda weird, I think he is chk raising a good percentage, he either doesnt have much or is slowplaying a nut hand, on the turn I felt I loose to much value not going for stax so I bet bigger to make for a comfortable river shove, as I dont think I get another street from his gash pairs, im confused as to what he can have honestly.

[bikes]

all the chips.

AK,AQ,KK,QQ,AJ

prolly calls it off with AK AQ AJ and mebbe KK alan meltzer style

[daven]

pre-flop is marginal vs the limp-raise from a pfr = 5. As played bet flop bigger, $4.80-$6.00 is good. River is very interesting. If you think he only gets this far with TT/JJ/AA then you should be betting bigger earlier streets.
obviously include AA in his range, but also AK/KK/AJ etc. Not sure if he's calling a shove often enough with stuff you beat. It's close.

[bikes]

after re-reading your advice a few times i have to assume your trolling because that advice is just awful.

pre-flop is marginal vs the limp-raise from a pfr = 5. As played bet flop bigger, $4.80-$6.00 is good. River is very interesting. If you think he only gets this far with TT/JJ/AA then you should be betting bigger earlier streets.
obviously include AA in his range, but also AK/KK/AJ etc. Not sure if he's calling a shove often enough with stuff you beat. It's close.

[daven]

lol @ betting flop bigger thats horrid.

care to explain why?
below is my reasoning for betting flop bigger, there may well be some flawed logic in there somewhere:
when a 5% pfr limp-raises his range is mostly JJ+ and AK, with a huge bias towards AA. QQ and KK are blocked cos we have KQ (TT/JJ/AA blocked the same cos of board), they are calling this flop at least some of the time with QQ/KK cos gutshots and big hands don't like folding, they are likely to call more often when we bet smaller - so i guess we should consider what impact sizing has on their calling with these hands = 1/2psb and 90% psb probably much the same here. AK/TT/JJ/AA are either check-shoving or lol-slowplay-check-calling regardless of how big we bet. The bigger the pot on the turn the less able villain will be able to fold on any street. So I like betting bigger cos i think it has limited impact on villain's calling frequency plus it makes getting our money in far easier.

after re-reading your advice a few times i have to assume your trolling because that advice is just awful.

i don't troll when giving hand history advice. I post what i think, cos that's the best way for me to get better at poker. I still have a lot to learn. I doubt anyone has poker solved.

[Fnord]

re: flop bet size

How much would you bet here with 67s? KK? AA?

edit: or if he's just terrible blast away and hope he's got a good second best hand...

[rpm]

surely it matters 0% what we do with any other hand in our range against someone who knows as little about poker as to play 30/5. and who limp/3bets UTG with (what i would nearly guarantee is) a de-polarised range

edit: plus we flopped the stone-cold nuts versus a nutted range in the hands of a passive fish. i know both bikes and fnord are better than i'll ever be at poker. but i'm not convinced that sizing balance matters one bit here, or that we should refrain from just betting whatever amounts > pot which best set up stacks to go into the pot over 3 streets (i'd prefer two if we can do that without overbetting pot, cant see HH atm to know)

edit round two: after looking over the HH and noting stack sizes i think i plan to go 4 on flop -> 9 or 10 on turn -> rest on river on almost any runout

[gingerwizard]

Find it hard getting my head around this one.

Advice without reading other posts was:
Villain's stats makes him a fish who has most likely a big pair or AK. Flop sizing too small, bet at least $4 and try to get all the money in. I'd ship the river because I'm now slightly discounting boats due to the check and he probably calls it off with AK and maybe even KK.

Then I read bike's advice and fnord's comment.

I can only think they are talking about some advanced stuff to do with range balancing. You have to respect it when good players give advice and I've thought very hard about it, but against a total fish at 25NL I wonder if range balancing is one level too deep for the opposition. If it is that will cost $EV in this and other hands when we flop a monster against a station.

[OngBonga]

Not sure about range balancing against this guy, it's rather like explaining gravity to the cat. He isn't putting us on a range.

First off, I'm probably lolfolding to the l/r pre, our implied odds kinda rely on us flopping better than top pair, and around 10:1 after rake I can't see calling being good here. But w/e, I'm loosening up with this hand, it has huge cooler value so meh.

(edit - we're getting better than 10:1, still not great implied odds though)

Flop, bingo. I'm betting $5 into this because villain's range has smashed into this flop, and I don't think he's capable of folding AK/AQ on any street. I want stacks in against this guy in this spot. Turn $10.

River isn't slowing me down, I expect him to tell me if he has a set, and in that event stacks would already be in. So yeah lol shove and laugh when he calls down AK.

[supa]

Yeah, I don't get why we're in this hand in the first place. The limp raise has to be crushing us. Betting the flop big seems good to me because it's smacked the crap out of his range which is all I care about in this spot.

River sucks because I think he has AA here like always.

[OngBonga]

River sucks because I think he has AA here like always.

I disagree, I expect AA to be more aggressive by the turn at the latest on this board, even a fish can see this flop is wet as fuck. He has AQ AK KK QQ imo, he calls down with AQ AK and probably folds QQ KK to all but small bets on river. I'm interested in his AQ AK and am not letting him call cheaply, because I don't think this guy can find a fold after chasing his draw. If he does have AA (or JJ/TT, in his range pre imo), then we're coolered and I take a note so I know he slow plays sets on wet boards like this, and note what he l/r with.

Happy to get it in on river since he has AK AQ much more often, imo.

[Chusko]

I'll jump on the bandwagon fold pre; as played $4-$5 on the flop.

If he had AA you would have found out on the turn. Ship it and let him call with his 2-pair. nh. Deeply analyzing microdonks is a pretty silly activity.

[supa]

Meh, I think you guys are giving villain too much credit. I'd expect his thought process to be more weighted toward 'oh noes, he's gonna hit his flush and mah aces are gonna get sucked out on again'. Obv AA isn't his entire range but thinking it's not there because we would have played it differently is a mistake imo. I'd bet close to pot on the flop and watch him sigh call his chips away.

*edit* I recently watched a guy type into chat during a hand "this is how aces get sucked out on" on a board like this. He literally told everyone he had aces and that he wasn't folding no matter what and c/c'd down because he was scared of the flush hitting. Fish just don't think the same way we do, and assuming they do is a huge mistake.

I could be wrong but I don't think a 30/5 that limp/3bets pre has a range much wider than KK+.

[Chusko]

A fair point, but I've seen this line taken with AK and QQ too. The people that play this way also never ever fold these hands postflop. And even if he is terrified of a flush, he still doesn't check the river. I continue to discount AA to the point where I'm always shoving this river.

[gingerwizard]

I think too many people are being dismissive of the flop sizing question. It is an interesting one.

Why is betting just over 1/3 pot good ever? Say, if it helps, we're in a spot similar to this against a 50/100NL reg instead of an idiot?

[supa]

I think too many people are being dismissive of the flop sizing question. It is an interesting one.

Why is betting just over 1/3 pot good ever? Say, if it helps, we're in a spot similar to this against a 50/100NL reg instead of an idiot?

Because were not.

[bikes]

he bet the flop perfectly i have no idea what most everyone else in this thread is talking about

[daven]

he bet the flop perfectly i have no idea what most everyone else in this thread is talking about

care to explain why you think his flop sizing is perfect? i, and no doubt others, would appreciate it. I'm sure it would help us get better at poker, which is what the bc is all about

i'm slow - the above post makes sense if most people in this thread are set to 'ignore'

edit: or if he's just terrible blast away and hope he's got a good second best hand...

ja, he's 30-5 and limp-raising pre = probably terrible

[gingerwizard]

he bet the flop perfectly i have no idea what most everyone else in this thread is talking about

I guess that was the point of my question. Why is it perfect and why is $4, trying to bloat the pot with the nuts, bad in comparison?

Genuine question

[Hoopy]

Flop needs to be bigger, if we assume he limp reraises AQ+/TT+ then we can get value from KK/QQ that will call at least 1 bet, if he's looking to c/r sets then it gets more money in. I think he is more weighted towards AK/AQ rather than sets just because not many people will c/c 2 streets with a flush draw on board.

Would ship river (18 into 27) since AK/AQ will always call and sometimes we get a call from KK.

21 combos we beat, 7 we lose to.

[OngBonga]

I wanna bet near the pot on this flop because I'm assuming this guy is an idiot and if he calls $2.50 he calls $5 because can't fold tptk or big pair + broadway draw. I want stacks in, I guess if we're shoving this river as played then we acheived it so yeah I don't know what I'm talking about either.

nh

[Chusko]

Flop needs to be bigger, if we assume he limp reraises AQ+/TT+ then we can get value from KK/QQ that will call at least 1 bet, if he's looking to c/r sets then it gets more money in. I think he is more weighted towards AK/AQ rather than sets just because not many people will c/c 2 streets with a flush draw on board.

Would ship river (18 into 27) since AK/AQ will always call and sometimes we get a call from KK.

21 combos we beat, 7 we lose to.

I think that range too open for this guy. I think a microdonk EP l/r is most nearly {QQ+, AK}.

[Fnord]

Why is betting just over 1/3 pot good ever? Say, if it helps, we're in a spot similar to this against a 50/100NL reg instead of an idiot?

3 or 4-betting pre-flop then taking lots of 1/3 to 1/2 potish stabs at the pot is an annoying strategy to combat. The pre-flop action is skewing people's ranges towards the premium stuff, no real need to build a pot and the sorts of hands that usually make it this far aren't really drawing and tend to either hit big or miss. The bulk of your value in that spot comes from flop and turn folds so you may as well make your bets cheap.

That said, in this specific spot you're defending a limp-re-raise from a very sketchy player....