Top 2 Pair

[JonBonJovi]

Hey guys,

Just thought I'd post this hand from tonight that i think i played poorly. Villain is 11/6/1 over 35 hands and the fact that he just called my 3bet made it difficult for me to put him on a hand. Looking back, not sure if i should have called his RR on flop as his most likely hand at that stage is probably QQ i think(i put him on AK at the time)? Either way, the turn should probably be C/F i think, as he is probably only calling with better hands i guess. Any advice here would be super helpful as I'm pretty new to poker (3 weeks) and am having some trouble at $5nl. Thanks


PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: $2.03
SB: $2.66
Hero (BB): $5.00
UTG: $9.79
Villain: $5.11
CO: $1.99

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has K A

fold, Villain raises to $0.15, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.55, Villain calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.12, 2 players) K 8 Q
Hero bets $0.85, Villain raises to $1.70, Hero calls $0.85

Turn: ($4.52, 2 players) A

Hero ???

Spoiler: Show

Hero bets $2.75 and is all-in, Villain calls $2.75

River: ($10.02, 2 players) 7

Hero shows K A (Two Pair, Aces and Kings) (Pre 30%, Flop 2%, Turn 5%)
Villain shows K K (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 70%, Flop 98%, Turn 95%)
Villain wins $9.60

[daven]

fold vs his flop raise, not close. Everything in his flop raising range beats top pair

[Fnord]

I would just shove the flop if I wasn't folding.

I don't see a point in betting the turn. If he's bluffing, let him fire again.

[acg123]

I would just shove the flop if I wasn't folding.

I don't see a point in betting the turn. If he's bluffing, let him fire again.

word.. also ship flop or check call all the way, and your range assignment of AK or QQ is not so good. he could have alot of hands, KQ,JT,any broadway gutter with FD, or 88. you should read spoons article about combonatorics i think its called? i dont have the link handy but you should be able to find it. that will help with situations like this.

[JonBonJovi]

Thanks guys

[Arjonius]

word.. also ship flop or check call all the way, and your range assignment of AK or QQ is not so good. he could have alot of hands, KQ,JT,any broadway gutter with FD, or 88. you should read spoons article about combonatorics i think its called? i dont have the link handy but you should be able to find it. that will help with situations like this.

While 35 hands is a tiny sample size, it doesn't seem particularly likely that someone who is 11/6/1 has taken the line he did with a range as wide as this.

The key question isn't whether such a range should be played this way, but how often it actually is.

[d0zer]

agree with acg's range being way too wide.

[acg123]

My range might of been slightly wide but its not crazy far fetched. 35hands is a extremely small sample and he could of just been getting alot of shit cards, if you have less than 200 hands for a sample, those numbers are frequently irrelevant and dont mean a whole lot. Even 200 is a small sample but its better thsn 35.

[OngBonga]

I don't think you should post results, even hidden as a spoiler, people are curious bastards and will look at the result, and once they see villain's hand any advice given is compromised.

b/f flop is pretty standard here, sizing seems good. When villain raises, given his stats I'd put him on 88 QQ+ AK and maybe KQs, he also might have monster draws like AJhh TJhh AThh, but I doubt he calls these to the 3bet all that often, though he does have position.

Against that range, on the flop we have 25% equity. Once we see the turn, obv it's harder to fold now, but we're still crushed, our equity is only up to 34%, and that still assumes villain has straight flush draws and KQs, so our equity is actually going to be less than that since these hands fold to the 3bet pre more often than hands that beat us.

So yeah, fold flop to raise.

*edit, 3bet sizing pre seems questionable to me, seems too large, especially against someone with tight stats. We're narrowing his continuing range to one that AK doesn't hold up well against. Calling pre might be better against this guy until we have a larger sample, if we're 3betting I like $0.45.
Flop sizing is fine imo if we're folding to raise.

[d0zer]

My range might of been slightly wide but its not crazy far fetched. 35hands is a extremely small sample and he could of just been getting alot of shit cards, if you have less than 200 hands for a sample, those numbers are frequently irrelevant and dont mean a whole lot. Even 200 is a small sample but its better thsn 35.

your range isn't outside the realm of possibility, but that's a whole lot different than just assuming every 11/6 is going to have that range. It's much more prudent to assume they don't have that wide of a range if all the information we have is 11/6 over 35.

[bikes]

if you don't know what to do on like the best turn card fold flop

[Icanhastreebet]

@acg

Bayesian probability. That is all.

Also if the 1 is his AF and he's playing this tight that means he's basically a super tight passive fucker so even over such a tiny sample we can happily fold the flop.

[d0zer]

we should assume that he's tight/passive anyway, cuz most tight-looking villains at the microstakes are weak/tight nitregs and we have no evidence to the contrary.

[Icanhastreebet]

we should assume that he's tight/passive anyway, cuz most tight-looking villains at the microstakes are weak/tight nitregs and we have no evidence to the contrary.

This is true.