$3.50 18 man 77 vs raise

[Luco]

Villain here is 31/5/1.8 over 65 hands. 6 left, top 4 pay. This guy is often aggressive on the flop.

PokerStars - $3.11+$0.39|150/300 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: 3,029.00
CO: 3,920.00
BTN: 1,346.00
SB: 7,679.00
Hero (BB): 5,060.00
UTG: 5,966.00

MP posts ante 25.00, CO posts ante 25.00, BTN posts ante 25.00, SB posts ante 25.00, Hero posts ante 25.00, UTG posts ante 25.00, SB posts SB 150.00, Hero posts BB 300.00

Pre Flop: (600.00) Hero has 7 7

fold, MP raises to 900.00, fold, fold, fold, hero???

the two things that made me slow down were the low PFR stat (he preferred limping in then betting flops) and being so close to the money. IIRC this was a standard raise for him, but he didn't make them often and it came out semi fast.

Shove or fold?

[Fielmann]

Fold. Loose passive fish isn't going to fold to 3bshove nearly often enough.

[donkbee]

Unless you have seem him shove with a 10bb (or less) stack before, I would probably just 3bet jam. 77 is the worst PP I do it with. I don't love it or anything, but 77 is just too good to fold IMO.

[Luco]

This spot really made me think.

- We're playing push/fold, but not dead, if we lose
- You pretty much have to expect a lot of calls given tight pfr range
- Can I put the chips to better use by folding
- Busting villain will put me in a v. strong position on the bubble to build a stack
- Villain has limped 17 times and this is his 4th raise, his first in a while too

The only snap decision I made with this hand was clicking 'mark for review'...

[Fielmann]

I would guess villain's calling range is something like {TT+, AQ+}. We have 37.2% equity against it.

If we fold, our equity in the prize pool is 18.17% according to ICM. However, we have an edge over our opposition. So let's say our real equity-if-fold is 21.0%.

If we shove and villain folds, our ICM-equity is 21,9%, so our real equity is something like 25%.

If we shove and villain calls and we win, our ICM-equity is 26.6%. However, the

- Busting villain will put me in a v. strong position on the bubble to build a stack

matters too, so our real real equity probably around 32%.

If we shove and villain calls and we lose, our ICM-equity is 9.5%, so our real equity is something like 10%.

If the probability of villain folding is x, then, for the shove to be profitable:

0.25x + 0.32*0.372*(1-x) + 0.1*0.628*(1-x) > 0.21

0.25x + 0,11904 - 0,11904x + 0,0628 - 0,0628x > 0,21

0,25x - 0,11904x - 0,0628x > 0,21 - 0,11904 - 0,0628

0,06816x > 0,02816

x > 41%

Villain's calling range includes 62 combos, so his raising range needs to include at least 105 combos which is something like {88+, AT+} or 8.0% which is not implausible.

So in the end, both folding and shoving are probably about equally good.

[Luco]

Wow, thanks for that, really interesting, did you get the ICM stuff from SngWiz? I'll have to check it out as I move up.

Donkbee, he'd never shoved. Not even once.

[donkbee]

Donkbee, he'd never shoved. Not even once.

Then I would jam :P

I like your work, Fielmann. I do think that his calling range is wider than TT+ AQ+ though.

[Fielmann]

Did you get the ICM stuff from SngWiz?

Yes. But I believe there are ICM-calculators that can be downloaded for free or be used straight in the browser. At least there used to be.

I do think that his calling range is wider than TT+ AQ+

Could be. That makes this more of a fold because the wider he calls, the wider he needs to be opening to be folding to our shove often enough. Judging by his PFR he just isn't opening that much.