PLO tournie final table hand

[Alpine021]

I dont have tracker on this laptop so no stats. But what is he leading into me with? It smells of complete air and he's been pretty active. Literally didnt know what to do.... Such a dry flop. He could even be doin this with QQxx or similar.

Could he have AKxx?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, 4.4 Tournament, 8000/16000 Blinds (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP (t326939)
Button (t210272)
SB (t125186)
BB (t278339)
Hero (UTG) (t148264)
Hero's M: 6.18
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9, J, K
Hero bets t32000, 3 folds, BB calls t16000
Flop: (t72000) 5, 2, K (2 players)
BB bets t64000, Hero?

[Penneywize]

With no reads and no stats, villain's range here is super wide. Yes he could have AKxx. He could have a wide variety of hands that beat you and some that don't. I feel like we can eliminate the toppest part of his range since he's donking out here and I feel that most players would defer to the preflop aggressor with really strong made hands, especially if it would only take a bet or two to get all-in.

Villain leading with a hand like QQxx as you mentioned would actually be a relatively good play, all else being equal. This way he's getting a chance to fold out all your weak Kxxx holdings and possibly obtain value from smaller pairs. That beind said, I'm not crazy about his sizing here, because he's nearly committing himself and depending on his holdings he will often have to call with very little equity.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 5:diamond:2:club:k:heart:
Hand |Pot equity  |Wins |Ties 
QQxx  |22.29%      |131,539|4,380
Kxxx  |77.71%      |464,081|4,380

Let's talk about preflop. I don't know what the payouts are like, but ICM might come into play here and make it less worthwhile for you to open this good-but-not-great hand from UTG.

All things considered, it's a close spot but I consider folding here. It really depends on ICM though, as this is probably the main reason I consider doing this.

[baudib]

Fold, not really close. Shockingly you have only 36% vs. Kxxx and only 50% vs. 5xxx. A34x is a 56% favorite and you're close to dead vs. sets.

[Alpine021]

Yeah it's not an awesome hand but I hadn't been playing too many hands so I was trying not to be too nitty.

Like u say tho it is a good move if he has QQxx or similar and as you said if he's wrapped round the low end with an ace he's going to get there over half the time.

There isnt much strategy around for Omaha MTTs...

[TLR]

It is an easy fold on the flop, but the more interesting discussion IMO is your preflop action, given your stack why did you choose to minraise UTG?

[drmcboy]

I would just 3.5 x pre at this size with whatever you're opening.

I'm getting it in now, if he's managed to do this with a set good luck to him. plus, after the blinds out stack is 4BBs so we're almost for sure in line for a 60/40 anyway. if everyone is folding so much that you think you could still move up a couple spots after folding on the flop, fold pre.

[baudib]

Doc, have you ever been wrong?

upon further reflection, of course we should take stack sizes into account and getting it in 40-60 ain't half bad.

i would definitely fold pre,

[Alpine021]

I think I just wasn't sure what to do with the hand and kinda panicked and hit min raise.

After getting complete garbage for ages and with only having 6BBs (plus it's only 5 handed) is this really a fold even if the raise size was bad?

I just didnt seem to be finding any spots to get it in over the top of any1s raise.

[TLR]

With M of 6 when you play a hand you need to be willing to play for all your chips, your best results preflop is to pick up the blinds or get heads up with one opponent

With any hand that you decide to raise UTG you need to raise pot and then get it in on virtually any flop IMO

[Credsfan03]

This is an easy fold here. He might have worse then you but he is betting to much for you to find out if he really has you beat unless you have a good read on him.