Does the math always justify a call?

[drtofu66]

Just wanted other opinions on this situation:

Live tournament quarterly freeroll (I know this will color many people's perception-- but it's live and you had to earn your way in so it's not a total freebie), 103 entrants. You got into this tournament if you earned 10 points or more playing the daily tournaments in the previous 3 months (10 points for first, 9 for 2nd etc..., 1 for 10th), entry for these tourneys $50-$200.

Down to 11 left, 5 at my table. Payouts were $25 for 21st-30th, $50 for 11th-20th. $75 for 9-10th. 1st place pays $600, 2nd $400.

Blinds are 8,000/4,000 with 3,000 antes.

I'm in the BB. Player 1st to act (the short stack) goes all in for 16,000 total. Folds to me with about 40,000 and I look down at

I know calling with this is correct mathematically. There's 43,000 in the pot and it's only 8,000 to call-- 5.4:1 odds and I'm something like 3:2 equity vs the wide range she's pushing with.

But a 40,000 stack is around average at this table (I estimate one guy with about 50,000, the other 3 of us have 30,000-40,000). I feel like the table's pretty tight and weak, most people waiting for the next payout bump and content to fold until one more person busts. There's no huge stack at my table that's capable of bullying without taking a significant hit. If I call this and lose, I'll be the short stack in the SB with 25,000 after antes/blinds get posted, then 22,000 on the button if I fold the SB. If I win, I'll have 83,000 which is nice but will it get me a huge advantage at getting 1st? I'd get to the next pay bump or two much easier but there's a lot of poker to be played; I don't think it'd help me get to #1 that much more.

OTOH, if I fold here, I'll have 33,000 in the SB after posting or 30,000 on the button if I fold the SB, which doesn't seem all that bad to me given the payout bump and the weakness of the table plus the possibility that someone else will bust at the other table. Also, it'll top up the current short stack so everyone at the table will have 30,000-50,000 next hand. With stacks like that, I feel that chances are good the blinds and antes will just get passed around unless someone goes all-in to steal them. I think I'd have a better chance at a better hand than 94o in the next 4 hands or so AND being the first one the push in AND stealing the blinds from the overly tight table than calling off almost 1/4 of my stack with 94o and definitely being behind. The math is REALLY tempting, but in the big picture I'm not sure it adds up.

I'd been in a similar situation where I had a relatively average stack and called with rags because of the math and was left with a stack that could induce no fold equity and was all out in another hand or two far off the bubble. I looked back at that tournament and wondered if it was worth calling off 20-30% of my stack with 86o when the blinds are huge at a weak table.

So does the math always justfy calling here? Because I really feel like I'd do better stealing at least one (if not all) of the next 3 hands, which would add up top more than what I'd get winning this hand.

[drmcboy]

you also have to consider that your stack is 80k + $25 real money equity if you win the hand.

in addition, based on the whole text I assume people will not understand your call at all, which may result in a walk or two.

if you don't feel having an 80k stack (1/5 the chips!) in this structure vs this field is a huge edge, you are playing your 80k too tight.

It is much less clear if 22k/30k matters.


but, it's live, so call dark and save the hassle. make sure you tell everyone first for added walks.

[OngBonga]

Calling, probably wouldn't even look at my hand. Who cares about $25? I'm going for the $600. It's pretty much a crapshoot from here anyway, I'd call this blind and hope for the best.

[drmcboy]

If you plug all this into an ICM calc, make sure you also run the numbers if you have a hand you would want to call with, like say KQ or A2 which I assume you would call fist pumping. the pot odds are so compelling I doubt your equity in the hand makes much difference.

people tend to be too binary when they think about ahead/behind. It isn't yes/no, it is more like... death. If I tell you you have a 60% chance of dying, you should be worried. If I come back and tell you it's 40% instead, do you really feel better? A little, but probably not much.

But, those same people will feel awful about getting it in 40/60 as they are walking out of the poker room, because they were wrong, but feel fine walking out after they lose a 60/40.

[baudib]

Super fist-pumping without looking. I mean, I don't know about you, but calling and winning in these type of spots is one of the primary motivational factors for even playing MTTs.

[swiggidy]

You have 5bb as an average stack? Did the blinds just double? I feel if you had been playing "correctly" (as you say stealing since the table is tight) you would have either doubled up or busted earlier, especially if you're doubting calling here.

I know weird stuff happens, but it seems like you should never end up in a situation where the entire table has 5bb.

[Credsfan03]

Call here you getting the right odds to call and a lot of times you will be facing a hand like AX which you are not to far behind.

[jaxpaboo]

Tough spot. You don't quite have enough chips to make an instant call. Border line either way, so I probably fold.

[Pascal]

Your title asks if the maths justifies the call - folding to preserve our stack size is also math, just ICM not pot odds

[Tom1559]

It is interesting to read the comments on this and just shows the different thinking from different players. I would have made the call for a number of reasons but mainly becuse I am trying to win this tournament. I am already in the money for nothing but I want first and to get there you have to take chances. I think this is a reasonable call to try and double up. Interesting structure with 3000 anti when the blinds are 8K/4K. Seems a big anti to me but maybe I am just a bit out of touch with live games.

[Pascal]

Good spot Tom, that ante is massive!

[jaxpaboo]

I'm taking another look at this situation. 11 players left. You have made $50 and will make another $25 if you can out last one more player.

If there was one or two other shorties at the table, I think I would fold. But since you will have low stack whether or not you call or fold, I think this is a pretty clear call.

You have lots of +EV. If you call and win you will have bigger stack and have great opportunity to make a lot more than the $25 you win right away.

If you lose, you still have just enough to force a hard decision on the other players if you open push from SB or button. Then again you may lose some fold equity credence on your push since they see your call with 94o

[Poker Orifice]

SnapCall w/o even looking at cards. (and as mentioned above make sure you say this as you call & flip them over.... you'll be more likely to get walks in the future).
I didn't notice the 3,000ante when I first read the HH (for some reason my brain put it at 300?). With antes at 3,000 I can't see how you could fold.

[jaxpaboo]

3000 antes. That is evil. Definitely hard to make table orbits.

[eberetta1]

I do not think I could bring myself to call because the $25 more for lasting 1 more player looms too close for me.
I think like you, I think I would still have enough chips to maybe win $600 with a few good hands to help me out, if I folded this hand. I know if I do not win this hand, I will not win another $25, so I could not even think of winning the $600. Not worth the tradeoff of not winning another $25. I mean, I have won $50 so far and can win 50% more if I outlast one more player. Huge. This, no, it's first or its nothing mentatlity is just not in my playbook. Your hand cannot get much worse, maybe beating a 72 or 23 at most.