2013: Make or break

[griffey24]

Things are kinda going out of control lately. Before every session I tell myself I'm going to play solid solid, and not spew. Yet somehow once the session begins its uncontrollable. The big factor for this is that I've mostly stopped cold calling lately, so I'm either 3b or folding. As a result my 3bet is around 12-13%, so it's hard not to get caught up in the dynamic.

Furthermore, I'm pretty positive that my "avoidable losses" and running bad are very tightly correlated.

My avoidable losses today are tough to calculate. They are spots where my play is for a reason, but they end up not working out too well.

Avoidable losses for the day are huge, I'm estimating around $1500 though I'm being hard on myself because I think some plays are fine. Here are a few.

Avoidable Losses

Hand 31)
Villain in this hand steals about 47%, 45% on SB and 4bets around 27%. I've been looking for spots lately to increase my 3b/5b range, given I'm 3betting so much. I think suited connectors (JTs/QJs) vs players that have a high steal and 4b is a good spot. Partially because they are prob 4b folding a fair bit, and partially because I think they show up with hands like 77-99 a lot more that I'm still flipping against.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($415.30) 104bb
CO ($724.30) 181bb
BTN ($475) 119bb
SB ($708.70) 177bb
griffey24 (BB) ($440) 110bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BB
3 folds, SB raises to $12, griffey24 raises to $36, SB raises to $76, griffey24 goes all-in $440, SB calls $364

Flop: ($880, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($880, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($880, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $880
SB shows

griffey24 shows


SB wins $877 (net +$437)

griffey24 lost $440


Hand 32)
This hand is vs the same villain as the first hand. We have some crazy dynamic happening right now. last orbit I 3b him 3 hands in a row. The first hand he 4b to this size I folded, the next hand he 4b to 76 I jammed he folded, the next hand I 3b his utg with AQdd he 4b I flatted and he took one bet off me post-flop with AK and won.

Even though villain is getting waay out of line (though so am I), I should still just fold or jam pre, even though the price is good to peel. OOP peel is meh, for precisely this reason. River may or may not be super thin, but I think given dynamic he can hero call AK/AQ here. (and apparently also with 4x if he didn't bink turn)

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($512) 128bb
UTG+1 ($554.50) 139bb
CO ($436.45) 109bb
BTN ($1,371.20) 343bb
griffey24 (SB) ($400) 100bb
BB ($400) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is SB
3 folds, BTN raises to $8, griffey24 raises to $32, 1 fold, BTN raises to $60, griffey24 calls $28

Flop: ($124, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($124, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $70, BTN calls $70

River: ($264, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $270, BTN calls $270

Final Pot: $804
BTN shows

griffey24 shows


BTN wins $801 (net +$401)

griffey24 lost $400

Hand 33)
Again this hand is avoidable, but there was so much aggro dynamic between us. This is the first time the stacks got this deep, and was pretty sure he'd view a 4b here as pure bs. Villain is also the type of player that 3bets light in polarized spots.

I was pretty confident his 5b was weak here. For better or for worse I go with my reads. I think this is the first time I've ever seen someone 5b call off AQ vs me before in this type of spot.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($462.10) 116bb
UTG+1 ($484.45) 121bb
CO ($1,731.80) 433bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($581) 145bb
SB ($372) 93bb
BB ($512) 128bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BTN
3 folds, griffey24 raises to $10, 1 fold, BB raises to $35, griffey24 raises to $70, BB raises to $116, griffey24 goes all-in $581, BB calls $396

Flop: ($1,026, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($1,026, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($1,026, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $1,026
griffey24 shows

BB shows


BB wins $1,023 (net +$511)

griffey24 collects $138 (net -$443)


Other hands - Turning my hand into bluff?

Hand 34)
Villain in this hand opens wide EP, and cbets pretty high. He has a low turn barrel of around 35% compared to flop cb of like 80%. On the river I think this is a pretty good spot to turn my hand into a bluff?

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($539) 135bb
CO ($400) 100bb
griffey24 (BTN) ($345) 86bb
SB ($400) 100bb
BB ($696.70) 174bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BTN
UTG raises to $12, 1 fold, griffey24 calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
UTG bets $22.50, griffey24 calls $22.50

Turn: ($75, 2 players)
UTG checks, griffey24 bets $40, UTG calls $40

River: ($155, 2 players)
UTG checks, griffey24 bets $155?


Hand 35
This is just a spot where given stack sizes and his sizings, I just don't think he's that strong. I also have a lot of fold equity here given stack sizes.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
griffey24 (UTG) ($502.80) 251bb
UTG+1 ($198) 99bb
CO ($336.25) 168bb
BTN ($566.40) 283bb
SB ($185.45) 93bb
BB ($217.25) 109bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is UTG
griffey24 raises to $6, 2 folds, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $11, griffey24 calls $11

Turn: ($37, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $27, griffey24 calls $27

River: ($91, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $69, griffey24 goes all-in $458.80?


Can't outrun EV this month, and it's having a bad impact so far!

Maybe at the end of this month when I see how huge my avoidable losses are, it'll wake me up? Let's hope so. Maybe I shouldn't wait for the end of the month for this wakeup call.


Winnings on the year: -$3935
Avoidable losses on the year: $5,500

[griffey24]

Keeping Track of table Dynamics

Played a very good session today and decided to try something new. One thing I've been noticing the last week or so is that I'm 3betting a ton, but that I'm making that "over the edge" 3bet at the wrong time.

By "over the edge" 3bet, I mean the one that is likely to get played back at. For pretty aggro players I'd say once you've popped them twice, you definitely have something coming. For tighter players they might be able to put up with the third or fourth before 4b bluffing you etc.

One thing I tried doing this session is having notepad up in the corner of my screen and typing in the players name and how many times I've popped them (10 tabling, hard to always keep track of this in my head). My plan going forward is to hit the brakes vs aggro players once I've 3bet them twice, and similarly after the third vs tighter players. After that point wait for a solid hand I want to go with.

I figure if I get this timing right, then instead of 3betting to 10bb and folding to their 4b of 25bb (loss of 10bb), I can jam and often win 25bb or likely get it in vs a weaker range since they are fed up. That's a net gain of at least 35bb, just by timing the breaking point 3b properly.

Does anyone else have any other strategies for keeping track of table dynamics across a number of tables? (side note if it wasn't already obvious: I have a bad memory!)


Winnings on the year: -$1955
Avoidable losses on the year: $5,500

[pocketfours]

Does anyone else have any other strategies for keeping track of table dynamics across a number of tables? (side note if it wasn't already obvious: I have a bad memory!)

I think you simply must remember history at these stakes or you're playing too many tables.

[griffey24]

Hand 32, what's the deal with this river bet? Are you really trying to bluff him off a pair in a 4bet pot?

35 is interesting but I feel like you have too much behind for this play.

32 - yah in my comments I said that it could be too thin. Value vs his AK's that given dynamic I was pretty sure would/could look me up on river. Smaller bet might be better?

35 - I was thinking the same thing. I always bet/bluff too big when a smaller raise could do the same thing.

I think you simply must remember history at these stakes or you're playing too many tables.

Yah I agree with this. I'm ok at dynamic in terms of flow and feel, but not great just remembering "Ok.. have I 3b him 2 times or 3 times now". Or like, some players you pay more attention to cause you have more history, but some other random player I might forget that I had already 3 him once today kinda thing.

[pocketfours]

32 - yah in my comments I said that it could be too thin. Value vs his AK's that given dynamic I was pretty sure would/could look me up on river. Smaller bet might be better?

I have no trouble believing that he could call whatever sizing with AK, but that's hardly a very big part of his range when he gets to the river like this. In fact I feel like we're very comfortably behind his range (meaning I'd c/f).

[griffey24]

P4's - what do you think ppl's range generally is in 4b pots when they have position?

Like mid pockets? I feel like mid-pockets would call pre with stacks, given they prob don't want to stack deep. I can see him having some crappy Jx hands though.

[pocketfours]

P4's - what do you think ppl's range generally is in 4b pots when they have position?

Like mid pockets? I feel like mid-pockets would call pre with stacks, given they prob don't want to stack deep. I can see him having some crappy Jx hands though.

Mid pockets don't play too well in 3bet pots vs aggros, even ip. You aren't deep according to HH. And he could def have Jx. He could even have JJ or an overpair after he checks back (considering what a good play that would be).