WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[NightGizmo]

Hmm... although....

Option 1: lynch boog
Day 3 -- we either nail a wolf and (probably) confirm the seer OR boog was a villager and we know DTB is a wolf.
Day 4 -- we're either down to 2 wolves + probable seer or 3 wolves plus we know 100% that DTB is a wolf (so, effectively there are 2 wolves we have to worry about still)

Option 2: don't lynch boog
Day 3 -- we may or may not hit a wolf with our lynch, but overnight either DTB is nommed (and we know boog is a wolf) or DTB is still alive on Day 4 and we are fairly sure that he's a wolf -- either way, we only have to hunt for 2 more wolves.

OK, nevermind, that made things a lot clearer in my head. Killing Boog tonight doesn't make sense based on DTB's say-so.

[OngBonga]

Killing boog today makes even less sense after his recent posts. That does not looked like an outed wolf to me.

[NightGizmo]

Do the right thing. Vote jyms.

With Boog a possible wolf (statistically, about 50%, although if you are confident that DTB is lying than obviously this doesn't apply), I'm a little concerned about following his advice.

However, I find it interesting that jyms is so quiet -- this kind of reminds me of what JKDS pulled with his "Wufinator" tactic. Going from one of the most active players to very quiet makes him a target, but then he can claim to be a special once he gets any heat and ramp up the volume again. "I was quiet because I didn't want the village to kill me early on as a special."

I'm OK with a jyms lynch today, if he's going to remain this quiet.

lynch jyms

[OngBonga]

I'd totally expect a villager ong to realize that.

Why would you expect anything but onging from a villager ong? And why would a Belgian spell realise with a z?

[OngBonga]

With Boog a possible wolf

Did you read the post above yours gizmo? Boog is a wolf here somewhere in the region of never.

[NightGizmo]

Did you read the post above yours gizmo? Boog is a wolf here somewhere in the region of never.

With Boog a possible wolf (statistically, about 50%, although if you are confident that DTB is lying than obviously this doesn't apply)

I admitted that possibility in the rest of the sentence. But that's a personal read -- it's not 100% conclusive. And obviously I'm discounting the "boog as wolf" theory, because I'm going along with his lynch.

[OngBonga]

I don't hate a jyms on the basis of the evidence boog puts forth, I'm willing to put my trust in him. But I'm not convinced, just because I am convinced jack is a wolf, and if jack is a wolf, then wuf and jyms can't be. I can see many more reasons why wuf and jyms are villagers than jack.

Seriously though, boog is pretty much a lock villager. Wolves do not make posts like that when they're about to die. Compare banana's posts and boog since banana named boog. Which one looks like he's wolf hunting? We're not talking 50-50 here. There's three wolves and one seer, so talking maths it's 75% likely that banana is wolf, from the pov of reg villagers and the vig. Factor in their posts since, and it's a near lock. I will be very surprised if banana isn't wolf and boog villager.

[Hoopy]

I don't think we need to give too much thought to the DTB/BooG situation, it'll sort itself out.

It'd be good to hear more from Gator & jyms.

[bikes]

under no circumstances whatsoever should we lynch dtb today. i dunno wtf people are thinking when they say that. if there's even a remote chance that hes the seer he has to stay around and if he's a wolf then we already know he's a wolf and can lynch him at our leisure.

[OngBonga]

Agree with bikes, same to be said about boog, we're not lynching him today either. Who do you think we should be swinging for bikes?

[bikes]

i think aub needs to be lynched today due to lack of experience. any further in the game and she/he i cant remember which, will prove to be a massive liability

[OngBonga]

if there's even a remote chance that hes the seer he has to stay around

Doesn't everyone have a chance of being seer? I'd say we're more likely to lynch the seer with an aubrey lynch than banana.

It is hard to argue against an aubrey lynch though, she's a wildcard and her activity level has dropped.

[aubreymcfate]

sorry i'm being a failvillager. i'm def not a wolf but like dtb said (this doesn't mean i think he's a villager - i actually totally think he's a wolf - but it was a good point) i'm not playing for me to win, just the villagers. so if i get lynched i just hope that sheds light on things, since you'll see i'm a villager, and then i'm sure you'll analyze who i've targeted and all that good stuff.

tbh i've been inactive in terms of posting only - i've been following this really closely, whatever that's worth. i just don't like to post whatever pops into my head. i'm at work now but will keep reading and thinking and hopefully will have a good post by tonight 'cause i do have lots of thoughts.. i'm just anal about formulating them to a degree that i personally find acceptable and worth anyone else's time to read. i know that's not a trait that is conducive to a good werewolf game, and i actually have enjoyed this far more than i expected, so i'm committed to trying to get past that.

i will say that i am suspicious of wuf 'cause i know wuf would act like a bombass villager if he was a wolf, and he has been, and even though i buy that he was drunk and would admit to a bit of inconsistency in what he says, that doesn't explain him literally responding to none of boog's huge post. seriously, when DO you avoid a good argument? that's fishy.

and boog's point about both tbd and pascal saying wuf is lock villager is also a good point. with pascal it's possible he just picked a villager to say that about because it would look good and he'd want wug on his side, but that combined with the fact that dtb for some reason looked wugy up is more damning. totally weird.

boog if you're a wolf i hate you because so far you're the person whose posts resonate with me the most, so i'm gonna feel like a major tard if i've been nodding along to a wolf this whole time.

[jyms]

Wow boog, now your reaching. I was trying to get things straight, not sway any votes towards anyone. i have not done anything to look like a wolf except be AFK far more this game than usual. I admit I haven't read shit and am playing very Bigred style so far this game for lack of understanding and no time spent reading. There is no excuse for my inactivity, but it is just that, inactivity.

[bikes]

Doesn't everyone have a chance of being seer? I'd say we're more likely to lynch the seer with an aubrey lynch than banana.

It is hard to argue against an aubrey lynch though, she's a wildcard and her activity level has dropped.

yes but not everyone is on the chopping block claiming to be a seer. if dtb is the seer we throw the game. if the wolves keep playing chicken with us they throw the game.

[OngBonga]

I'm not so sure about aubrey being a liability later.

Can I just remind everyone banana said this...

I'm pretty sure I was the reason Night 1 was held up.

And this is cut from JKDS' n1 post...

[B]night deadline is now 24 hours, wolves have the option to extend

This statement of banana's is as good as an arooo. If we're going to try and dodge the seer, banana is by far our best lynch because he's a wolf 100%. Just saying.

[bikes]

I'm not so sure about aubrey being a liability later.

Can I just remind everyone banana said this...



And this is cut from JKDS' n1 post...



This statement of banana's is as good as an arooo. If we're going to try and dodge the seer, banana is by far our best lynch because he's a wolf 100%. Just saying.

no, it's not the best lynch because if he's a 100% wolf then we just leave him be until we're completely befuddled and simply ignore every post he writes.

[OngBonga]

Fair enough, but excuse me if I laugh if we force the real seer to out today by leaving banana alive.

[bikes]

if the real seer outs himself.... please no one be that stupid. its far too early in the game and you have no angel protection. please please please. do not be that stupid

[bikes]

dear seer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4zjIzj0nHM#t=3m8s

[bikes]

lynch danarong

something doesnt sit right about how pushy he was days 1 and 2, its to the point where it's over aggro trying to figure out where people stand on day 1, which is absurd. and IN GABE WE TRUST.

[rong]

Well I'm glad you have such a detailed accusation for me to refute.

[wufwugy]

I'm gonna pull back on Jyms being lock-villager for a few reasons and will explain the wagon dynamic as simply being incompetence or FPS. Wolves are incompetent more often than I tend to give them credit for and it's possible they were going for some serious trickery too. I don't necessarily think this means what I previously thought was wrong, but whatever.

DTB is never the seer. Never ever ever. I'd rather lynch him because I think the probability of him being the seer is lower than the probability of accidentally outing the real seer or vig by going after somebody else

I love Boog's post about me. It's actually really good and I've been wondering if somebody would look for patterns that I have seen do exist ITT. When it comes to my villageriness, I knew coming into this game that I would get a pass on the first few days simply due to having modded the last two games. I guess it's silly for me to even post this as it's silly to prematurely defend, but what I said about Pascal when I was the first bold on him on Day 1 is not something I would say in the forum if I was a wolf. I would instead have told him to fix his shit in chat because he was doing the same wolf behavior he had previously

I'm feeling the last two wolves might be among Jyms and Bikes and JV. They just feel wrong to me, like how Pascal and DTB did as well

I guess the only reason I'm not bolding DTB ATM is I don't wanna turn this day into a big ass argument over whether we should kill him

JV putting Boog as the seer is really strange. He knows he shouldn't do that sort of thing. Furthermore, JV lynching BR based on his idea that Boog is the seer is doubly strange. It looks like JV is overcompensating in trying to be all hunty of dem barky barks.

As to that old ass post of Boog attacking me on day one or whatever, I didn't respond to it because I was wasted when I posted it, and I said as much, and I purposely fling shit around in the early days. So what inconsistencies Boog pointed out are fine and I'm not particularly in the mood to deny that at one point I said Hoopy caught JV wolfin then shortly later said Hoopy's rationale was bonkers. This is standard egowugy stuff

[daven]

Stag party was heaps of fun

I've skimmed over what's happened since i left. Interesting goings on with the Jyms wagon -> Dropthebanana wagon -> Pascal wagon. Looks like my decision to leave my lynch vote with Pascal worked out just fine. Feeling better now that we've got one wolf strung up, and we have at least one more from [Dropthebanana, Boog690]. It seems weird how quickly the Dropthebanana wagon grew, and how slowly it shrunk after he seer-outed. I need to look at who was on it and what they'd done earlier before i jump to any conclusions though. I'm pretty sure we shouldn't lynch Dropthebanana today - if he is seer and we lynch him then we've helped the wolves win, and we'll know if he's wolf or not once the wolves make their next kill.

Jyms still looks wolf to me, that's twice he's been basically inactive and then coincidentally turned up about when he has started to look in danger, and twice that the bandwagon has fallen down in response to his reappearance. He got up to 7 votes with 10 needed to lynch. Unless there were already 3 wolves on his wagon (Pascal = wolf, and wasn't on his wagon) at that point then it seems unlikely that he survived as a villager. I need to look at Jyms and his wagons again though - asking whether they could also have worked out this way with him as villager.

Alright, now I need to get some work done, but after that I'll do a proper read through. There should be a decent amount of information in Pascal's posts plus it will be good to look more closely at Gabe's posts now that we know he was villager.

[wufwugy]

let's do it:

lynch jackvance

[wufwugy]

I think we should do Jyms vs JV wagons

[wufwugy]

i thought a stag party was a big ass orgy

[wufwugy]

actually right now my gut tells me jyms and jv are the last two wolves

[wufwugy]

and if that's the case, it's possible that dtb is really the seer. that would blow my fucking mind though as i dont believe a word he says

[bikes]

your ego truly knows no bounds

[wufwugy]

[jyms]

I'm not a fucking wolf, I'm just a fucking idiot that is watching the thread and not paying much attention but when my name starts coming up I post to say I'm not paying attention. Sounds stupid but it's the truth. Put my name against any other suspected wolf and I will put a bold on that name right now.

lets start with Lynch JV

Pick another wolf and I will bold him too. That's all I got until I get some time hopefully tonight or tomorrow to put my own list together. For now all I can do is help the village to nail down a wagon.

[wufwugy]

Going over Keith's posts

1. He has a hard on like crazy for Boog. Ofc this is standard Keith as he always pops an uncontrollable erection for one player in the beginning and never lets up until he's dead

2. He can't be written off due to the Pascal thing. Keith is precisely the kind of player who goes overly FPS as a wolf. Gatting your own wolves is not the correct strategy because it reduces overall win probability, but it's the only way Keith wants to win as a wolf

[wufwugy]

This also means that Keith and Boog could both be wolves. Unlikely, but could

[Keith]

I've looked through DTB's posts yesterday and at no point did he post a single thing about wuf until he outed himself and revealed wuf was a villager. REALLY? wouldn't a seer try and use an opportunity where someone said something about wuf to put something in saying that he thought wuf was a villager. Thats so obvious for a seer to do and its no different than anyone else saying that they think x is a wolf or likely a villager.The importance comes in after a reveal so thats theres facts to verify a seer claim so that the village can choose between a seer and a seer wolf or in case the wolves hit lucky and kill him.

DTB didn't do this so I find it extremely unlikely that he is the seer. Especially with the night length being down to him comment that Ong highlighted. it just doesn't sit true.

I don't like the way that jyms has disappeared. Sure he wants to get to the endgame, so do the wolves . Disappearing means that he's useless to the village if he does. He has no post history to prove his villager credentials making it worse for the village if he is in the endgame.Villagers have to prove they are villagers for the village not to lynch them early whilst the wolves are special huntingand removing the best village players. Then the wolves kills tend to get shifted towards taking out seer verified villagers. If e really isn't paying attention like he claims he is going to be a liabilty in the endgame and shouldn't be allowed to get there.

my inkling is for a boog,jyms,pascal,dtb wolf team. In which case the wolves had to try and get one of them some villager cred. However , boogs long post was quite impressive so that if i was to clear any of those it would be boog.

In reply to wuf , yeah , when i'm strongly suspicious of someone i keep putting the pressure on them. However , do you concede that i do get quite a lot of accurate wolf reads when doing so?. And what you are suggesting means that i not only pressured for a boog lynch all through , but also pressed for a pascal vig shot all through and supplied the skype link that condems pascal and points strongly at boog timing wise and have pointed to a strong link between boog and jyms. If boog andjyms both come back as wolves , you are saying that i sacrificed the whole wolf team? maybe you smoked a bit to much today.

rescind boog , lynch jyms
Jyms role will also help point at boogs role.

[jyms]

rescind boog , lynch jyms
Jyms role will also help point at boogs role.

How? I highly doubt we have worked together on anything? I'm not sure how my lynch would lead to anyone if I turned up wolf.

[Keith]

maybe if you'd been paying attention you'd have realised why. heres a hint , examine my posts.

[BooG690]

ALL THE WHILE, Wufwugy hadn't posted a damn thing. With everything that went on, WUFWUGY, the greatest WW player there ever was, posted nothing. As leader of the wolves' den, he was obviously quite busy putting everything together and didn't have time to pay attention to the main thread. Wufwugy finally begins posting after two hours and twenty minutes of inactivity.

What went on that you suspiciously went absent when we hit our first climax of the game?

[wufwugy]

I was helping my brother install racks on his van most of the morning and afternoon, and only fully finished about an hour and a half before the deadline

[wufwugy]

is wolfboog really trying to drum up suspicions on me?

[OngBonga]

Wuf, do you really think boog is ever a wolf here? You're more suspect than him imo.

Keith, you know boog isn't the only person east of pascal, right? It's equally as likely that pascal was waiting for daven, who is further east than boog. I'm not pointing the finger at daven here, just demonstrating that the timing tell is unreliable, even if pascal was waiting for a wolf.

[wufwugy]

No I don't think he's a wolf, but some small percentage of the time he'll be on a team with Keith or Jyms here

[Keith]

Keith, you know boog isn't the only person east of pascal, right? It's equally as likely that pascal was waiting for daven, who is further east than boog. I'm not pointing the finger at daven here, just demonstrating that the timing tell is unreliable, even if pascal was waiting for a wolf.

Amazing how you have a thought and spit it out into the thread without stopping to think and corroborate your facts.

checks out Daven's posting history, he may or may not be further east than boog , but he's been regularly posting in the uk evenings from 8pm (uk) onwards. Pascal therefore wouldn't be waiting up for him ...but that doesn;t mean that he couldn't also have been in on the skype call, just that that time frame fits in with boogs posting times better .

[jackvance]

I was helping my brother install racks on his van most of the morning and afternoon, and only fully finished about an hour and a half before the deadline

Like how banana conveniently went to take a shower when it was going down too? But yeah I don't think wuf is a wolf. It kinda sucks for me atm, the exact people who I most solidly think are villagers, are the exact people who want to lynch me.

It seems like the suspicion of me comes from my short day 1 and 2 posts. Truth is, most of day 1 and 2 I was over at a friend, the guy who I went to the carribean with, to play in the Unibet Open in St.Martin in the beginning of december. We wanted to take shots in many of the TCOP events that have started on stars, we played in the sunday million (through a qualifier), etc. For example when I bolded daven, it was 10 in the morning and I was finally going to sleep, hence forgetting to add 'lynch' in the tired state I was in.

But ok, moving on, boog's whole theory on jyms and wuf being wolves, well it kinda blows my own little theory out of the water, so that is that. I don't know what to think of it. I don't believe he'd make this sort of post as a wolf though, which makes it very interesting.

Furthermore, JV lynching BR based on his idea that Boog is the seer is doubly strange. .

I was lynching BR well before I came up with my hypothesis. Go back and check if you forgot.

And well since noone likes a BR lynch, and jyms is amongst my suspects.

rescind BR

lynch jyms

[jackvance]

Why would you expect anything but onging from a villager ong? And why would a Belgian spell realise with a z?

What?..

[GatorJH]

Just finished reading over the thread and my thoughts are as follows:

Bikes and Aubrey seem to be jumping in randomly and not adding a ton of value. One of them could easily be a wolf.

Bigred has been Bigred EXCEPT when there was heat on him. Then he went away with his usual meme - "I dare you to lynch me" defense and started to post content. Once the heat left so did he. Fairly large suspect.

Keith seems like a villager to me and I doubt he would try to pull that much FPS. If it gets to endgame and he is still here we can re-visit.

Wuf is wuf and probably a villager because although we like to think a fake outed seer will confirm a fellow wolf as a villager it rarely happens. If that is correct you have to wonder why wolf DTB would out him as a villager because he knows that it may put heat on wuf.

Jyms keeps playing the "got a lot going on" defense, but then gets REAL defensive when the heat comes his way. On the other hand would he really have kept that up when the heat was also on him yesterday? I am 50/50 on Jyms but think he may be the best option for today just so we can see what happens tonight lynch jyms

Don't have a great read on Boog or Onga and I don't like that as it could mean one is a wolf playing a good game.

[wufwugy]

Jyms keeps playing the "got a lot going on" defense, but then gets REAL defensive when the heat comes his way. On the other hand would he really have kept that up when the heat was also on him yesterday? I am 50/50 on Jyms but think he may be the best option for today just so we can see what happens tonight lynch jyms

Yeah this is just too much. There's just something about the way Jyms has been participating while also not participating. It's so strong that I'm now thinking maybe DTB is the seer and the Jyms/Boog connection I saw early on is true, or if DTB and Jyms are wolves then it was really just a lack of preparation that got the wagons the way they did when everybody flipped from Jyms to DTB to Pascal

rescind JV lynch jyms

Almost every time somebody doesn't do anything but defend themselves and make excuses and not do what they say they're gonna, they're a wolf

[wufwugy]

I think that's six for jyms so two more is the eighth cinch vote

[wufwugy]

tbh a pascal dtb jyms boog team does work because it would allow for them to not have prepared well enough on day 2 to make sure that the dtb seer out fell on a villager, and dtb claiming boog is a wolf would then be pretty much the only way they could win the game: by expecting every wolf is going under except boog if theyre able to pull a heavy trick there

I find boog's idea of the jyms/wuf link a little contrived, but it is the kind of thing boog would have to do if hes on a team with pascal dtb and jyms

[OngBonga]

Wait please, jyms is a villager and jack is a wolf, and I'll show you why very soon.

[daven]

i've done a read through with the aim of trying to convince myself that Jyms is a villager, and i haven't been able to come even close to convincing myself.

Lynch Jyms

[daven]

Wait please, jyms is a villager and jack is a wolf, and I'll show you why very soon.

oh ffs, this better be good

Rescind Jyms

[OngBonga]

Amazing how you have a thought and spit it out into the thread without stopping to think and corroborate your facts.

Where have you been the last two years keith?

Jack...

It seems like the suspicion of me comes from my short day 1 and 2 posts.

Not at all. It comes from all your posts. Let's have a rundown shall we...

Checking in. There seems to be a lot of analysis for a day 1.

Casual wolf checking in. (credit to hoops for that one)

daven

There is some inconsistency in his posting as someone else pointed out already, he's my best bet atm. I could switch to Fulksey though, inactives have to die.

Daven was currently pushing pascal at the time of this vote. You remind the village that someone else pointed it out, you also hint you're willing to lynch fulsky.

DTB's lynch is strange, he latches on to a joke made by bigred. I don't remember exactly how he played in the past, looks a bit like uninterested villager, but it's hard to tell with him being so inactive.

Here's where alarm bells are really starting to ring for me. I find it odd you're giving banana "uninterested villager" status, not least because you should know how banana plays wolf and villager. There's a distinct difference in his playstyle, he's much more aggressive as villager and passive as wolf, at least in my experience. I've been wolf with him and you before. This feels a lot more like wolf banana than villager banana, and I'd expect a player of your calibre, especially since you have wolf experience with him, to know this.

Remember how when we were wolves we totally avoided voting for each other for the first few days? You vaguely wag you finger at banana for lurky votes, and then say he's prob uninterested villager, something he doesn't do. I point this out in thread, and you follow up with...

Don't get me wrong I could bold him (as well as some other people), because of his low content and vagueness, but I'm trying to look at both angles instead of jumping to instant conclusions. My immediate intuition to his post was that it was suspicious, same as many people probably, but these intuitions haven't always proven true, that is why I am being more careful in my judgments. (the opposite of how most people play, I know)

So now you find him suspicious? Hang on, a minute ago he was uninterested villager.

Your next post is a goldmine.

Ah gizmo posted his analysis. I was a wolf with him the last game I played, he's hard to spot as such but he also has strong analysis and seems legit atm. Keith seems to be playing like I remember him playing in the past.

Interesting how you can easily recall gizmo and keith's playstyle, but not banana's.

I'm mostly suspicious of Hoopy and XTR. TLR spoke out against XTR and was nommed, but we can't say much about that, we don't expect wolves to play this obvious, so it could be either. I hope he posts some more.

For now,
lynch hoopy

Now you're suspicious of hoopy and xtr, due partly to the TLR kill. Why not pascal? Hoopy was pointing at pascal, and xtr would be a good kill for the wolves to help me get off pascal's back. And you seem to think wolves don't make obvious kills? TLR doesn't get more obvious.

I honestly think this is just mental masturbation what you're doing here.

Ah yes, the old slap ongbonga down. Funny how daven felt this was an astute observation. Sure I was wrong about the pascal-xtr link, but rather than acknowledge me for digging around and looking for wolf slips, you mock me. A lot of the time I deserve mockery, here I don't.

I'll switch to dtb, going to sleep now so if others need a wagon to switch off of jyms from. Never liked the jyms lynch much, even less now after his post.

lynch dtb

So now you figured out how to sacrifice your buddies? An hour after this vote, banana claims seer, so if you're a wolf with him, you know he's not getting lynched. So you can go to bed a sleep easy.

I'm here, decided to watch a movie instead of sleeping.. this is quite a development.. I don't think I believe banana but I'll switch anyway because it's the better play.

lynch pascal

Oh wait, you didn't go to bed. Guess you guys were hoping jyms would get killed instead of pascal, but your hand is forced here, right?

Well I'm a villager so one of you is probably a wolf (hoopy).

I think this was aimed at me. Even at this stage, before pascal was confirmed wolf, I'm thinking hoopy is very unlikely to be a wolf. And I know I'm not. So you're pointing your finger at the two people putting pressure on you.

After reading through the thread, and assuming DTB is indeed a wolf, ong, wuf and hoopy seem cleared, daven probably aswell. Gizmo and Keith still look like villagers to me. Gator is probably a villager aswell but not sure.

Bikes and boog are my main suspects atm, with boog up front. BR and aubry remain a wildcard. I'll reserve judgment about jyms until he starts posting more. It could very well be any combination of these.


About DTB, his reluctance to switch to pascal, his fellow wolf, was pretty damning, and while the wolves could have neglected to nom him as a ploy, I don't buy that he looked up wuf either. Why look up someone on the first day that is so actively posting his opinions? It's just the one of the most trivial villagery people to point at when DTB had to be quick with his fake outing.

Now, DTB might have panicked and fake-outed without thinking, but he was maybe expecting jyms to be lynched. I'll have to go back and check the exact vote counts again, but this could go a long way towards giving jyms villager cred if DTB turns up as a wolf.

So now you abandon hoopy and shift towards boog. Funny, that's who banana is swinging for. You also acknowledge why jyms is probably a villager. Who has your current vote jack?

Bolded for emphasis.

(jack) Alright, now boog isn't going to be a wolf afterall. The exchange with DTB solidifies that pretty much.

(jack) Their bitch-slap fight seemed genuine to me, meaning they won't be both wolves together.

(ong)If banana is wolf, then boog is very probably a villager, because it's higher value for the wolves to try and flush out the real seer, rather than give a fellow wolf villager cred that fails when if he gets looked up.

(jack) Now this is a good post ong. Kudos.

This little flurry is interesting. You think boog is a lock villager because his interaction reads genuine, I think it's because banana is seer hunting, a point you acknowledge. You then go on to hypothesise that boog is indeed the seer, bigred was his look up, and this is justification for a bigred lynch. I point out that if this is true, we should wait for boog to make this clear before blindly lynching bigred, because boog is not going to allow the day to wind down without him giving us two wolves. And even if you think boog is seer who has a guilty on bigred, you should know that we're better off lynching someone other than bigred, because this thins the pool for boog's next scan.

I'm done. Jack is a wolf, and he even tells us why jyms is a villager.

[wufwugy]

rescind jyms

[jyms]

Thank you ong. That is more than I could have pulled out to save myself. I'm sticking with my JV Bolding

[wufwugy]

Damn Ong, that is some legit fucking hunting. That's seriously really good

Can you further explain why you think this means Jyms is a villager? Also more about Boog. In my mind there could still be a connection between JV and Jyms or JV and Boog. It's really convoluted though and I can't make sense of it right now (if at all), but I feel like if JV's a wolf, then there is something going on that is a trick that we're not seeing.

lynch jv

If you're right, that's some of the best hunting I've seen. The JVP is not somebody who gets lynched on Day 3 that easily

[daven]

Ong, your post confuses me. I think (?) i'm glad for now that i rescinded jyms so he wasn't sitting on 7 for more than a minute.
I don't understand how Jyms has been silently watching this unfold then magically turned up (again) just after you posted and the bandwagon has started to die. I'm about to go out into the sunshine and pick blackcurrants with my girlfriend, but i'll read through again when i get back. We still have a bunch of time right?

[OngBonga]

Can you further explain why you think this means Jyms is a villager?

Sure. Basically, when jack votes banana, jyms is well ahead and pascal is hardly breaking a sweat. The banana wagon takes off like wildfire, forcing him to claim. Naturally, the wolves will think jyms is going to get lynched instead. Why would banana fake claim seer if he think it's going to get another wolf lynched? If banana is a wolf, his claim means jyms has to be a wolf. The fact jack acknowledges this, tells us he's probably a villager, and now has his vote on him, this screams to me that jyms is a villager and they really want him lynched today.

jyms is not a lock villager, maybe the wolves were hoping that someone else would die after banana's claim, but it's really unlikely to me.

[wufwugy]

One thing is that JV has gone out of his way to rack up Jyms' villager cred. If JV turns baddy, it means that he spent time figuring out how to explain why Jyms is a villager for the same reason I did.

It's just that Jyms has shown up way too many times only for his own defense (and to switch to Pascal).

[OngBonga]

I don't understand how Jyms has been silently watching this unfold then magically turned up (again)

This is an astute observation, to be fair. If somehow I'm wrong about jack, then there's a high chance jyms is a wolf. But, that would hint that banana is honest, which is all sorts of headasplode. It doesn't make much sense for banana to be wolf with jyms here imo.

[wufwugy]

Sure. Basically, when jack votes banana, jyms is well ahead and pascal is hardly breaking a sweat. The banana wagon takes off like wildfire, forcing him to claim. Naturally, the wolves will think jyms is going to get lynched instead. Why would banana fake claim seer if he think it's going to get another wolf lynched? If banana is a wolf, his claim means jyms has to be a wolf. The fact jack acknowledges this, tells us he's probably a villager, and now has his vote on him, this screams to me that jyms is a villager and they really want him lynched today.

jyms is not a lock villager, maybe the wolves were hoping that someone else would die after banana's claim, but it's really unlikely to me.

Yeah this was the conclusion I came to early in the day, but I can't shake the fact that Jyms consistently shows up to do one and only one thing: defend himself

[wufwugy]

Actually wait, if JV is a wolf, he's on Jyms' wagon now. Granted, I also set in motion the dynamic of deciding only between Jyms and JV

[wufwugy]

This is an astute observation, to be fair. If somehow I'm wrong about jack, then there's a high chance jyms is a wolf. But, that would hint that banana is honest, which is all sorts of headasplode. It doesn't make much sense for banana to be wolf with jyms here imo.

who are you quoting here? i cant find it

[jyms]

I don't understand how Jyms has been silently watching this unfold then magically turned up (again) just after you posted and the bandwagon has started to die.

Gods honest truth is I am just perusing and watching how things are unfolding while I have other things on the go up until now, I basically am trying to stay ahead of a mod lynch by posting enough until I can get some time and when I see my name I try to get involved a little. I admit I've done nothing to help the village to this point and if I survive this night I can up my post count considerably I hope.

[OngBonga]

who are you quoting here? i cant find it

Daven's last post.

[wufwugy]

lol i scanned his post like six times and still couldn't find it

[jyms]

FWIW, following this thread at work on my Galaxy note 2 has not helped me stay involved. I don't like FTR on my phone, even with the large screen. I think I need glasses.

[wufwugy]

Thoughts on a JV/Boog connection, or lack thereof

[OngBonga]

Sure. Basically, when jack votes banana, jyms is well ahead and pascal is hardly breaking a sweat. The banana wagon takes off like wildfire, forcing him to claim. Naturally, the wolves will think jyms is going to get lynched instead. Why would banana fake claim seer if he think it's going to get another wolf lynched? If banana is a wolf, his claim means jyms has to be a wolf. The fact jack acknowledges this, tells us he's probably a villager, and now has his vote on him, this screams to me that jyms is a villager and they really want him lynched today.

jyms is not a lock villager, maybe the wolves were hoping that someone else would die after banana's claim, but it's really unlikely to me.

I made a mistake in this post...

If banana is a wolf, his claim means jyms has to be a wolf.

Should read... "jyms has to be a villager"

[GatorJH]

if Jyms turns out to be a wolf Onga could very easily be one as well.

[OngBonga]

Can't argue with that gator. If I'm wildly wrong here, I expect to die.

[wufwugy]

If JV shows wolf and Jyms is a villager, my lead suspect becomes Hoopy

Because Hoopy would be the other wagon with 3 or more votes that never actually took off in the Jyms DTB Pascal thing, and the way he called out JV's wolfin on Day 1 makes sense if they're both wolves. Also he's been one of my main wolf picks the entire game, but nobody else likes it so I've had to abandon it

[OngBonga]

lol if jack, banana, pascal and hoopy are all wolves, hoopy is a ridiculously good wolf.

[aubreymcfate]

Wuf - if DTB/JV are wolves (and fucking christ Ong, i started to hear your post narrated by matlock, that was crazy - so yeah i think dtb/jv are probably wolves right now) that would mean that their wolf strategy was to have Hoopy post sporadically and not say much, but when he does, strong go against DTB/JV, and Pascal as well.

possible but i think you should analyze others too.

i was thinking keith for a good while but then i came across the thing he pulled from another thread and that made me second guess, along with a few other things i cant remember.

i'm going to go analyze some other players.

[aubreymcfate]

lmao

aka what ong said