WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[GatorJH]

If DTB is still alive tomorrow I could be talked into lynching Wuf.

[jackvance]

Aubrey is indeed probably the best lynch for today. A lot of her posts can be summed up as echoing the most vocal/prevalent village opinions while fluffing it up with own ideas around it. Pretty much exactly how you expect a new player to behave when they have binked wolf. I remember in some past game rilla picked off someone like that too so it's nothing new.

And remember Gabe also had her solidly in his top suspect list.

[Hoopy]

Wanted to do a read through of gizmo's posts (19 total), because I can't remember any of them.

1 - talks about lynching noobs, doesn't want to

2 - responds to daven, wants to lynch inactives

3 - mentions daven & aubrey, says to leave pascal until later as he's easy to spot

4 - responds to ong, still thinks lynch inactives

5 - pushes ong for reasons on pascal vs xtr

6 - backs off ong

7 - reiterates reasons for lynching inactive fulksy

8 - tempted to lynch pascal, votes fulksy

9 - explains to rong why daven is a bad lynch

10 - apologizes for being absent

11 - analyzes XTR, concludes he looks like pascal last game (wolf), thinks keith is a villager

12 - analyzes DTB, says low content

13 - says zero content from bikes

14 - sticks to main wagons, says jyms/DTB way better than pascal, votes jyms

15 - explains memory lapse for thinking pascal = special previous game

16 - "I don't see how a wolf, faking as a seer, would name another wolf as a wolf"
wants to lynch BooG then DTB but holds off.

17 - Compares lynch/no lynch BooG

18 - Notes jyms is quiet, votes for him

19 - Possibility of BooG being a wolf non zero


Conclusion : Tough to say, probably leans villager based on analysis posts.

[jyms]

OK Rescind JV

[jyms]

Maybe the village would do better taking out another inactive, or someone not giving up a ton of info. even if that means I could be one of those. No I am not throwing myself on the sword, but There are still quite a few players available with no suspicion whatsoever and we never have all 4 wolves guessed right off. Someone is in the weeds.

[Hoopy]

lynch aubrey

[GatorJH]

Aubrey is indeed probably the best lynch for today. A lot of her posts can be summed up as echoing the most vocal/prevalent village opinions while fluffing it up with own ideas around it. Pretty much exactly how you expect a new player to behave when they have binked wolf. I remember in some past game rilla picked off someone like that too so it's nothing new.

And remember Gabe also had her solidly in his top suspect list.

Agreed. lynch Aubrey

[NightGizmo]

Maybe the village would do better taking out another inactive, or someone not giving up a ton of info. even if that means I could be one of those. No I am not throwing myself on the sword, but There are still quite a few players available with no suspicion whatsoever and we never have all 4 wolves guessed right off. Someone is in the weeds.

This sounds pretty villagery, and now that JV is either wolf or vig, I think that lowers the chance that jyms is a wolf (specifically -- if JV is a wolf, I doubt that jyms is also a wolf).

rescind jyms

[rong]

Holy fuck. I've just caught up although I've skipped some of the long ass quoted posts. I feel lost and unable to make sense of any of it.

I also think I words per post cap would be a solid idea.

Tonight my Mrs is out and I'm home alone so I'll definitely be able to contribute and finally read this Shit on a big screen and not a phone. Sorry for going awol when its all kicking off, but the mass of posts contributed to me not being able to catch up and anything of value.

[OngBonga]

You're giving yourself credit for DTB, Ong?

Pretty sure I was harping the banana-jv link pretty early, so yeah, I can hi5 myself when they both flip wolf.

(jack) Why would I fake out as the vig if I was a wolf

Because angel is dead and banana claimed seer already. Only way you can stay alive to try and get us to lynch someone else who might be seer or vig.

And unless the wolves were really horsing around, jyms is a villager.

Weren't you voting for him today when you were being wagonned with a mighty two votes?

I still strongly believe we have two wolfs on the ropes here, I see no reason to change my tune just yet.

Aubrey, bikes, dan... can lynch any of these three.

[aubreymcfate]

lollll oh for christ's sake. JV, if you're not a wolf, I know how you feel right now. It's very frustrating to have to read logic that you know is positively flawed. I'm really not a wolf but I don't have the time to defend myself at all right now (work, doctor, etc).

I honestly think I come off more as a confused and unexperienced noob, which I AM, than wolf. You really don't think I would sound a little more coached? My posts have been my own ardent efforts to participate and to make sense of what's going on. I'm completely on my own here. Going on to other people's reads is a thing ANY noob would do. There's a reason people usually play specifically newbie games when they first get into it - I jumped into a game full of experienced players that all know each other, so how the hell is it an explicitly wolfy thing for me to let the opinions of other prominent players guide me?

Unfortunately, I won't have the pleasure of a "told-you-so" if I get lynched and you see I'm a villager because I think you're wolfy as fuck.

I don't see why I should get lynched over anyone less active than me that has also been skating by, unless it's a seniority thing, in which case I can't really argue against that if that's how you guys want to go about it.

[OngBonga]

lol wolfs

[OngBonga]

unless it's a seniority thing

Not from my pov, you're in a group of three who's basically a bugger to read.

[OngBonga]

Add bigred to that list, by the way. He can die today too, no problem.

[aubreymcfate]

Ong, if you're so truly convinced that JV is a wolf, how on earth am I a wolf? Why would JV be pushing for me to get lynched? Maybe it's because he's a wolf and he knows I'm not and it's easy to push the village towards a noob that's hard to read, rather than someone you guys know that can be more easily defended? Of course it's easy to push people on me, the only person who would have any basis to defend me would be wufwugy.

If you want to get played, get played. It's insane how obvious what he's doing is, but okay.

I know I sound super defensive right now but if I get lynched and you see I'm a villager, then you'll realize I get righteously defensive when wrongly accused, and if I play again you'll actually know something about me, and I'll be less of a "bugger" to read. See how that works?

How I'm the most suspicious one out of 3 that are hard to read when I am the person you all know the least is beyond me.

[aubreymcfate]

(i wasn't lying when i said i didn't have time to defend myself, but i'm prioritizing this over work right now because eff this noise)

[Keith]

anyone want to explain a reason for not going wuf today. if he comes back a wolf it confirms that DTB is a wolf. By starting lynches on low posters today we risk outing the seer.
Theres solid reasons for going for aubrey , like the vote for pascal long after his death was decided and his vote on the JV wagon last night after i warned of the dangers of putting any more votes on . that could just be inexperience thoughbut having some confirmed wolves will help us to narrow down any voting strategies that the known wolves had rather than guessing.

reducing the number of wolves will also reduce their ability to rush a wagon on a seer that claims in the future.

[NightGizmo]

I'm neutral on aubrey -- she doesn't really strike me as super wolfy or super villagery, so I'm willing to wait and see.

Bikes -- no clue. He played this very aloof style as a villager the only other time I played with him, and he was lynched early for it. Because I keep hearing how much of an end-game asset he is, I'm hesitant to lynch him.

Rong -- he's playing a different style than normal, so I guess out of these 3, I would pick rong.

[NightGizmo]

anyone want to explain a reason for not going wuf today. if he comes back a wolf it confirms that DTB is a wolf.

You have some good theories, especially your last monster one. I'm curious if wuf is going to respond to it. He seems to be half ignoring your posts, unless he gets heat from other people and has to address your accusations.

[OngBonga]

Ong, if you're so truly convinced that JV is a wolf, how on earth am I a wolf? Why would JV be pushing for me to get lynched?

Actually I think you're right here. If I'm right about jack and banana, he's not going to throw the last wolf under the bus.

We should wait for jack's role confirmed before we swing for aubrey.

Keith... we don't swing for wuf today because there's still the remote chance that banana is seer, which we find out very soon. If that's the case, why help the wolves by lynching his cleared villager? I get that banana is pretty much a lock wolf, but if he's not, then my statement that we're in fantastic shape is completely wrong.

Yes we could accidentally swing for the seer. Anyone can still be seer. That's the chance we're always taking.

[OngBonga]

Now this is a good post ong. Kudos. Except for the part where you claim they think you're the vig, that reads like fiction.

Jack does not say this if he's vig. It would be giving wolves clues, and I would expect him to be happy for the wolves to assume I'm vig.

[OngBonga]

The fact he's reminding us that a vig fake claim is suicide and relying on it for villager cred also speaks volumes. He knows that vig is the only fake claim left, so he knows this line of defence is moot.

[aubreymcfate]

It's also really convenient that the person JV is going after the most is one of the biggest advocates of Ong's theory that he's a wolf.

I really can't get over how weak sauce your reasoning is JV. And how no one else sees how transparent it is. My posts aren't awesome original soulreads... clearly I'm top suspect.

But you're a wolf, so I don't fault you for this. What's alarming is that others don't see through it. Unless they're the other wolf. Hoopy/Gator, I'm looking at you.

[jyms]

I doubt both JV and DTB are both claiming correctly. So long the night tells the story. I don't think Wuf can be lynched till after tonight because of DTB's claim so I figure we have to choose between Aubry, Bigred or another inactive depending on who you believe and don't. Starting a train on someone could reveal some details later. DTB and JV votes right now are key when the are discovered

[jackvance]

Hm aubrey is showing the moral indignation you'd expect if she was a villager in this scenario. That isn't easy to fake either. Tough.

[GatorJH]

Actually I think you're right here. If I'm right about jack and banana, he's not going to throw the last wolf under the bus.

We should wait for jack's role confirmed before we swing for aubrey.

That's actually a pretty good point.

rescind aubrey

At this point I am afraid to lunch anyone otherwise for fear of hitting a real special.

[OngBonga]

lunch

Ha nice typo

[GatorJH]

Haha. Yes it is. Stupid iphone

[aubreymcfate]

like ong said earlier, I fully expect to be lynched if I'm wrong about jv. I won't argue against that, and it will be helpful to the village anyway if you lynch me and see I'm not a wolf so that you have a narrower range of suspects.

[GatorJH]

At this point I think we need a reg villager to step up and toftt as we just need to get through today and assess the nights actions.

I don't mind being that villager if we think that is good for the overall village.

[OngBonga]

Just getting round to reading keith's wall...

At the time he was typing this up he thought pascal was still alive and hadn't seen Gabe post with the count cofirming pascal was dead.

Now this, I can't speak for anyone else but when I'm wolf, I tend to refresh the page before I submit a post, to see if there's any new information that's relevant. Especially when someone is close to lynch. I do this as villager too, but not nearly as often.

(wuf) - Jyms is cleared as a villager. This is because the DTB wagon built up in the final days while Jyms was in the lead. If Jyms was a wolf, this would mean that the wolves would have no chance of not lynching a wolf

This is pretty damning, since wuf later voted for jyms, tagging along with gator's thoughts.

(keith) someone who claims to be as good as you claim surely doesn't just ignore posts as a villager or pretend to be ignorant of lines of investigation.

Wuf is very much like me, and often grunches while forming soulreads. He's also pretty honest about this.

(keith) wuf thinks he's pwning the village here and can't help boasting so that he can quote it post game.

This is can buy without much convincing.

Oh my god this wall just goes on and on. I'm coming back to this after jack and banana are dead.

I'm not sure about wuf. Keith raises some very good points, but there's also flaws, like assuming wuf would post as a wolf close to lynch without refreshing before submitting. Any wolf worth his salt is not going to do that. So I don't know.

[OngBonga]

At this point I think we need a reg villager to step up and toftt as we just need to get through today and assess the nights actions.

I don't mind being that villager if we think that is good for the overall village.

I thought about making this suggestion myself, but it's bad. We should kill someone the real seer is going to want to look up. If we accidentally hit the seer, too bad. We're odds on to miss the seer. If we hit the vig, that's not nearly as bad, as it confirms jack as wolf and we lose a potentially negative special.

[GatorJH]

Wolves are down 1-3 already based on thE validity of JV and DTB's claims. I don't think it hurts us too bad at this point but that is a decent point. If we do get another seer or gig claim that just solidifies roles even more so than now.

Bigred has been high on my list so I think that is our next best option.

lynch bigred

[OngBonga]

Yeah I can dig this lynch, he's a nightmare to read.

lynch bigred

[jackvance]

like ong said earlier, I fully expect to be lynched if I'm wrong about jv. I won't argue against that, and it will be helpful to the village anyway if you lynch me and see I'm not a wolf so that you have a narrower range of suspects.

The act of simply being wrong is no reason to be lynched. Everything has to be seen in context.

And I can understand people will be hesitant to lynch someone I am also liking to lynch, so I'll just stand back. Just make sure to lynch wuf when I am confirmed, and stop letting ong drive your thoughts just because he posts the most.

[Keith]

I'm not sure about wuf. Keith raises some very good points, but there's also flaws, like assuming wuf would post as a wolf close to lynch without refreshing before submitting. Any wolf worth his salt is not going to do that. So I don't know.

go back and look at the original timings . they are the same . wuf could have refreshed , no vote count -then hit send and then found that gabe had posted the count in the time between his refresh and him hitting submit.

[bikes]

i think bigred is a horrible leash. he doesn't appear wolfy at all.

[BooG690]

lynch Wufwugy

[OngBonga]

i think bigred is a horrible leash. he doesn't appear wolfy at all.

Of course he doesn't. He rarely posts any content. We just allow him to float by with fluff because we all like him. It seems we're crapshooting now, trying to bink one wolf from a pool of 15.

imo, the real seer is much more likely to have already looked at dan than bigred. We have to try and be tactical here, even though that brings with it its own risks.

keith, valid point. I didn't inspect the time stamps. I'll read your post on wuf thoroughly tomorrow. While banana might be seer, wuf might be cleared villager, so I can't see how lynching wuf is any better than lynching banana, in fact banana is a much better lynch imo because he's less likely to be seer than anyone else.

[OngBonga]

fwiw I imagine bikes is a villager, why would he moan about the bigred lynch when it might result in his lynch?

[Keith]

if we are worried about hitting the seer why not just lynch wuf. If dtb is the seer the wolves are going to eat him or JV tonight. wuf is never the seer in this situation with the way he has played.

why did wuf hop off the jyms wagon when it looked like it could cruise home to a lynch yet still post that he thought jyms was a wolf.

why did wuf try to stop pascal hitting 10 when pascal is the known wolf

why was he posting that we should not lynch pascal while pascal could be saved yet once pascal was dead moments later he was posting to say that he wouldn't be surprised if pascal and DTB were wolves.

why was he trying to restart the lynch wagon on the outed seer who just happened to say that wuf was a villager

all this action took place between in the last 3 hours before the deadline,the last 3 questions taking place posts 528->550

[OngBonga]

Fuck this, were the hell is banana? He's given up. Who here would just not post at this stage of the game as seer? We'd all be doing our best to help the village. He's a wolf, always.

lynch banana

He's obviously not the seer, and if he is, we lose one more look up and save the wolves a nom, rather than accidentally hit a hidden seer.

[OngBonga]

we lose one more look up OR save the wolves a nom

fmp

[Hoopy]

rescind aubrey

We have about 5 hours left, seems like every lynch is a bad idea right now.

[OngBonga]

We have about 5 hours left, seems like every lynch is a bad idea right now.

yup, so let's lynch the outed wolf.

[OngBonga]

I'm going out soon, playing poker at a friend's. I would like to know who we're lynching so I can get my vote down. I guess I'm down with most people, but banana makes most sense to me right now. I can't see him ever being the seer, and this allows us to talk facts tomorrow.

[OngBonga]

Also, anyone who agrees with a banana lynch, just vote for him, no other comment, we do not want the wolves figuring out who the real seer is.

[GatorJH]

Between wuf and dtb wuf is a better lynch today imo.

[b]lynch wuf]/b]

[GatorJH]

Damn iphone. lynch wuf

[OngBonga]

We should lynch wuf after jack is dead, by the way. Jack can prove he's the vig by a) not getting shot by the vig, and b) shooting wuf.

[GatorJH]

Also, anyone who agrees with a banana lynch, just vote for him, no other comment, we do not want the wolves figuring out who the real seer is.

That's another reason why wuf is a better lynch.

[GatorJH]

We should lynch wuf after jack is dead, by the way. Jack can prove he's the vig by a) not getting shot by the vig, and b) shooting wuf.

If wuf turns out to be a wolf big can shoot DTB

[OngBonga]

Ok some fine points from gator there.

This is a reluctant vote.

lynch wuf

[aubreymcfate]

stop letting ong drive your thoughts just because he posts the most.

Lol, fair enough.

[NightGizmo]

If wuf turns out to be a wolf big can shoot DTB

What if JV is actually the vig and is eaten by the wolves, so he can't fire his shot?

[NightGizmo]

Between wuf and dtb wuf is a better lynch today imo.

Regardless if you think we should lynch wuf today -- lynching DTB isn't a great idea. He has two predictions out there -- if either one fails to be true, we know he's lying and we can kill him at our leisure (or if a different dead seer shows up). But if he somehow is actually the seer -- we lose massive value in killing him today and preventing him from getting another lookup.

In the meantime, I say we just assume he's a wolf and treat his input appropriately.

[OngBonga]

Lynching wuf is pretty much the same as lynching banana. By lynching wuf, we're assuming banana is lying... if we're making that assumption, why not just lynch him? He's more likely to be wolf than wuf, and wuf is more likely to be seer than banana. This is why I feel banana is the better option of the two.

[DropTheBanana]

Lynching Wuf is lynching a villager.

Lynching me is lynching the seer.

Neither earns you a wolf.

I've told y'all this before. Believe what you want, but neither of us are wolves.

[OngBonga]

Thanks for the wolf hunting on your final day alive, seer.

[DropTheBanana]

I've handed you a wolf on a silver platter. You chose to not believe me. Not my fault.

[OngBonga]

Final thoughts banana? Who are the last wolves?

[JKDS]

Deadline is in about 5 hours. With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch

I am not at a computer right now. You may talk until rilla or I locks the thread/posts lynch results

[DropTheBanana]

BooG for sure.

Everyone else is suspect besides myself and Wufwugy.

Throwing a wild guess out...

BooG, Onga Bonga, and a toss up between bigred/bikes (since rarely all four wolves are fully engaged in conversation.)

[OngBonga]

Made me laugh. I look forward to lynching you tomorrow.

[DropTheBanana]

If I make it that far, I look forward to you leading the charge.

[rong]

Right, back 500 posts to figure out what the fuck is going on!

[wufwugy]

you guys have no idea how i play this game

[wufwugy]

it is virtually impossible for me to post with such high levels of authenticity and activity if im a wolf who knows all the roles

jv thinking im a wolf by pushing at him hard is nonsense. just sheer nonsense. at what point do i not get looked up if i remain alive? answer me this guys. im fucking serious. wolves CANNOT act the way i have this game while a seer is alive. its fucking goddamn suicide

the 'dtb debacle' is hogwash. magically because i pwn that shit im magically some magical wolf. a wolf NEVER does what i did there, all he does is just keep quiet

i have no idea who to lynch today and frankly i dont care anymore. jv could actually be the vig here. i have some reasons that i cant mention because if im right it gives too much info to the wolves for why i think jv is a wolf, and that influenced my opinion a lot, but it is possible the web ive constructed is wrong at one point, thus wrong at another point and on and on

im more pissed that i might be wrong about jv than anything else

[wufwugy]

im gonna try to find some course of action if i can

rescond jv

if you think lynching me is right, please do. the one thing that will make me feel good about this whole situation is knowing how big a fucking facepalm youre all going to make when u see i pop villager, because then youre gonna see how unbearably obvious it was that a wolf never acts the way i have, not even when they try really hard to do it

[rong]

A random thought, not sure if particularly valid (I'm only on the 400's in terms of reading thread). But if anyone here could be accused of special hunting, it would be Ong. He's gone all gung ho at several people and bolded half the village at one point or another.

[OngBonga]

He's gone all gung ho at several people and bolded half the village at one point or another.

Why is this me special hunting, and not me onging?

I think dan is the last wolf. I expect to get nommed tonight.

[jyms]

BooG for sure.

Everyone else is suspect besides myself and Wufwugy.

Throwing a wild guess out...

BooG, Onga Bonga, and a toss up between bigred/bikes (since rarely all four wolves are fully engaged in conversation.)

No chance in hell Ong is a wolf, Wuf is a wolf long before Ong and I have my doubts. Bigred is either Wolf or Villager but never a special cause he's been bang on the same as every other game. I say we take Bigred out for the same reason I have said for more than 2 or 3 games, he gets to the endgame with no clue as to any input, Tonight will reveal a lot. We have 2 special claims and the wolves can't take out both. I will lynch Bigred if that's what gets it done,

[OngBonga]

Going out now, will try to get on before deadline. I don't think wuf is wolf, but he could be, the "I couldn't play this as wolf" is equally applicable to me, and I accept I could be wolf, especially if jack is vig. I'm not relying on my post count and gung ho style. I got burned last game being quieter, so I'd be forced to adjust my wolf game.

Yeah, lynch dan and I'll try and get on before lynch.

[rong]

Pretty sure Jyms is a villager, I won't be voting him. Just based on voting patterns of wolves.

[rong]

What? When were you quieter, I must have missed that game.