WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[bigred]

ugh i may end up pitching this theory. gin is making this hard to think

Sounds like all this talk about Wufwugy has you pitching a tent...HEYYYYYOOOOOOO.

I'm doing the red wine thang, playa

[bikes]

if we take the course of lynch boog, then it's obviously shoot jv/wuf and lynch wuf/jv the next day

[wufwugy]

i am more inclined to think there is a wolf among jyms wuf hoopy and aubrey

if im a wolf then im fucking amazing at this game

if aubrey's a wolf i will NEVER hear the end of it

if jyms is a wolf he will NEVER hear the end of it (from me calling him a dickhead loser)

if hoopy's a wolf, well, i always thought he could be, but apparently ong says otherwise, soooooooo

[bigred]

Who thinks I'm a wolf? Cause like, you're the wolf, bro

[bigred]

Personally, I think you're all wonderful people...except some of you.

[wufwugy]

Wufwugy(4): Keith, JV, Boog , ng

DTB(6): wufwugy, bikes, hoopy, Aubrey, jyms, rong


the last wolves are certainly among these people. its def not danarong cause hes obv dead and its def not me

those on dtb or those on either dtb or wuf?

i can see the latter, but not the former. it was pretty clear that the wolves did not want dtb to die. furthermore, ftr wolves are not prone to gat their pals. instead of saying "dudes imma gonna go out eventually, you should rally against me", it's usually "dudes i cants believe i was figured out, let's see if i can survive longerssss"

[wufwugy]

excluding ong. he was the only i saw who wanted to be a martyr

[BooG690]

Wuf, you getting DTB lynched last night was no sort of fantastic feat. It's an easy move for any wolf to do, especially since nobody believed DTB and DTB couldn't post due to fear of letting go of any information. At that point, the wolves (yourself included) were just about done with him and were obviously on his bandwagon to hope for villager cred.

[bikes]

i am inclined to think boog is not a wolf

if boog is a wolf and dtb threw him under the bus that would essentially end the game. because then the real seer would out and there would be only 1 remaining wolf and then the chance of the last wolf winning would be near less than like ~7% based on numbers alone and less so given that the real seer outs all the villagers hes looked up before he dies. so say like 4% wolves win if team wolf decided to throw boog under the bus. team wolf is not that dumb with DTB in team wolf because DTB is not dumb.

and for that reason i like my jyms lynch. team wolf decides "this is it, dtb's Apocalypse" and votes for him. which largely leads to my belief there is a wolf among the people who voted for DTB and since it can't be me or rong that leaves wuf, aubrey jyms and hoopy.

i am all for a course of lynch jyms, shoot aubrey and if a wolf is not found then lynching hoopy and wufwugy in that order

[wufwugy]

oh btw this whole "if so no so is such n such, shoot wuf" doesn't work. if jv is vig he shoots me every damn time; if jv is not the vig, the real vig shoots him every damn time

so there

[bigred]

Bikes, I'm down with a jymz lynch. Being Canadian is offensive enough!

[wufwugy]

also, at this point i am a pretty likely seer lookup. so shooting me is somewhat redundant

[BooG690]

I'm OK with lynching jyms. Let's keep this day going though. An early bandwagon is never good. With that in mind, rescind wuf.

[BooG690]

Wouldn't I be an even better lookup, being named by DTB and all?

[wufwugy]

Wuf, you getting DTB lynched last night was no sort of fantastic feat. It's an easy move for any wolf to do, especially since nobody believed DTB and DTB couldn't post due to fear of letting go of any information. At that point, the wolves (yourself included) were just about done with him and were obviously on his bandwagon to hope for villager cred.

to bad i didnt have any help from the one supposed villager who supposedly knew for a fact that dtb was a wolf

6 to 4, and i had to try really goddamn hard to get it like that

[BooG690]

I was sleeping!

[wufwugy]

Wouldn't I be an even better lookup, being named by DTB and all?

boog has not been seer'd in years

given that the conventional wisdom is that your situation plays itself out, i think a lot of seers will still skip over looking you up, but it is a decent point

[OngBonga]

Yeah I'm sorry for leaving my vote on dan. I make no apologies for putting my social life before ww.

Lots to catch up on, figured I was wolf food so only grunched the thread. Obviously I'm still set on jack being a wolf, obviously that plays itself out tonight so no point pushing that one.

[jackvance]

I was halfway expecting I might live one more day after I read Daven's post my shot comes effectively after the wolf nom. I was under the impression the angel acts first, because he can disable people's abilities, and then everyone else acts, but apparently not. So they'd rather seer hunt than kill a vig who can't shoot.

I could only vaguely follow yesterday as I had company, but I think a good idea to do now is go over Rong's posts and see if we can figure out why the wolves would think he might be the seer.

[jackvance]

And I have now finally, finally gotten that goat soulpwn of teh wolves I've been trying to since my very first game. No need to shower me with praise; knowing I did my job is reward enough

No need because you're wrong.

[jackvance]

Jyms is never a wolf. It's the voting patterns of known wolves on dtb fake out day.

I'm really starting to like a NG lynch.

Just read Ong's JV thing. I don't get the accolades and I don't buy it. His interpretation of JV's lynching choices throughout the dtb outing are opposite to mine and the rest is just looking for wolfiness anywhere he can and you'll find it if you want to with pretty much anyone.

A few posts by rong.

[JKDS]

Vote Count 4.01

Boog(1): Wuf
Wuf(1): Keith
Jyms(1): bikes

Not voting: Hoopy, Jyms, Ong, Jack, Daven, Gator, Aubrey, NG, Bigred, boog

Deadline is in 3875 minutes. With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

How do you give an octopus ten giggles? You give him tentickles. XD

[OngBonga]

Why are we talking about lynching wuf or boog? Chances are, seer has already looked one of them up. Seer has up to three confirms to share with us, we should be aiming for people he probably hasn't looked up yet, not for people who can potentially help us to lock this down.

If jack is a wolf, he knows he's dead tonight, so we just need to flush the last one out, and jack will throw in the towel.

If jack is vig, then either he gets a shot out tonight, or the seer lives for at least one more day.

Boog690 - seer target
Hoopy - villager
Bikes - potential lynch for today
Jyms - villager
Wufwugy - seer target
Ongbonga - villager
Jackvance - vig/wolf
Daven - villager
Gator - seer target
Aubrey - potential lynch
NightGizmo - seer target
Keith - villager
Bigred - potential lynch

Seems to me our best options are bikes, aubrey and bigred, but that's trying to second guess what the seer has already done.

[OngBonga]

If jack is vig, then either he gets nommed tonight, or the seer lives for at least one more day.

fmp

[OngBonga]

Pfft that still doesn't make sense. I've just got out of bed. You know what I mean.

[jackvance]

Outed specials hold unique positions where they get to tell the village what they think before they die, but JV has not done this. Just like his fellow wolf, all he has done is "lynch watwagy".

Yet another falsehood. I had posted my top suspects (apart from you) to be aubrey, BR and bikes. And I had posted, that if I am killed to make sure to kill wuf and stop listening to ong so much.

Now, my list of suspects has changed, and is likely to change some more as the day progresses, but I stand by the fact that egowolfy has to go, and that ong's posts should be taken with a grain of salt. He posts a lot, there is some decent content but also a lot of noise, so take his postings as such. My position on wuf could also possibly change during the day but he'd have to pull some magical rabbits out of his hat to convince me of him not being my number one target.

[OngBonga]

Jack, how likely is it do you think that wuf has been seer'd?

[Keith]

having slept , i think that wuf lynch today is pretty bad. Tonight will give clarfication as theres 3 scenarios


1.wolves don't eat JV, JV shoots wuf - JV is the vig
2.wolves don't eat JV, JV gets shot, we lynch wuf tomorrow
3. wolves eat JV, we lynch wuf tomorrow


i'm confident that wuf is a wolf, JV may be a wolf (i doubt it but it could happen) but that will resolve itself tonight .I think wuf is far more likely to be a wolf than boog. Boog has maintained the same arguments/facts through the game. Wuf's arguments and facts alter depending on who he's talking about.

yesterday , defending himself wuf said that wolves have NEVER killed off one of their own as its stupid gatting one of your own and reduces your chances of winning. While at the same time he was trying to point at me as being a wolf because i can only play FPS as a wolf because i did kill off a fellow wolf early in the game. Just as a reminder , I used that to go on and win for the wolf team. Today , all of a sudden wolves naming a fellow wolf is the central plank of wufs argument for boog being a wolf, despite having said that the wolf NEVER do that and FTR wolves have never have done that when he's also used the point that i DID kill a fellow wolf to try and call me a wolf.

Pascal? Check

DTB? Check

JV? Check

Do you seriously think I have been trying to off my ENTIRE team so I can be the last man standing? You do realize the seer is still alive and can look me up any time right? Not to mention the vig could find all my talky-talk gives him an itchy finger.

So JV we don't know that he's a wolf and it will be confirmed tomorrow. You killed off the wolf/seer and led the charge on it in your own defence. The wolf seer was dead anyway and only a wolf could know for s=certain that he was a wolf.it doesn't clear you.


pascal - Can you point us at a post where you actually bolded him.You keep pulling out that fantastic lynch post , but you didn't bold him and its the sort of thing wolves do early in the game to distance themselves from fellow wolves.I've pointed to you trying to stop the pascal lynch with an hour to go before the deadline so that you could " extend the day" which was a stupid argument.You also didn't hop off the jyms wagon to pascal's with jyms way out in the lead and likely to be lynched and got on DTB who was really unlikely to get lynched. Once pascal was confirmed dead you were saying that the wolves were on pascals wagon.

So how's that theory of yours where I was protecting Pascal by trying to get DTB lynched doing for you?

pretty well, even better when you eventually show up as wolf.




i agree with bikes that the wolves were on DTB's wagon yesteday because they had to try and keep wuf in the game to keep suspicion on JV and boog and DTB was going to die soon anyway. It in no way clears bikes though.

hoopy and aubrey both boted for JV after I posted of the dangers of getting JV near the lynch total as DTB could seal it . Wuf has repeatedly said that hoopy and aubrey are villagers . Aubrey was taking off yesterday so

lynch aubrey

[OngBonga]

I think aubrey is probably a villager, but it's time for tactical voting. We're in great shape and I can't see seer looking up aubrey compared to other targets, so she's a clear lynch target for today, because we have no idea how good she is at wolf, and it thins the pool for the seer. Sorry aubrey if you're villager, we're close to winning here with a hidden seer, so your death should help us.

And if you're seer, that would suck, but don't wait until you're one from lynch to claim, because if JV is a wolf, he will seal any lynch that's not a wolf, because if he's a wolf it's obvious tomorrow whatever happens.

lynch aubrey

One more round of night actions and it becomes a lot clearer.

If aubrey gets to 5 votes, we stop and wait for her to post before adding to the wagon. Anyone who doesn't is a wolf or idiot. If seer dies without sharing info, we're not in anywhere near as good shape, esp if jack is vig.

[OngBonga]

Boog(1): Wuf
Wuf(1): Keith
Jyms(1): bikes

All these wagons suck today.

[BooG690]

Wait, why don't we lynch jyms? I think that's a better tactical lynch.

[BooG690]

What I mean is that there's a chance Aubrey is a special. There's almost no shot jyms is a special...

[OngBonga]

That's true. I just feel we've got more chance getting a wolf with aubrey. jyms is never a wolf after the timing of banana's claim imo. aubrey, I'm basing my town read on her on substance, rather than circumstances.

[BooG690]

I think we have to weigh the risk of hitting a special against the reward of hitting a wolf. I'm pretty sure jyms is the play.

[OngBonga]

I'm pretty sure that jyms is a cleared villager and should be treated as such.

Someone please tell me why banana would claim if it was going to result in one of jyms or pascal, both wolves, from dying.

[jackvance]

I would quote the part where you swore an unconfirmed seer/wolf was a better lynch candidate than you. Horrible logic but you somehow got that through.
.

Saw that too. Facepalms were had.

I've been integral in gatting DTB, outing JV

You want to take CREDIT for forcing me to out my special role? One of your biggest fuck-ups.

Yeah I'm sorry for leaving my vote on dan. I make no apologies for putting my social life before ww.

Lots to catch up on, figured I was wolf food so only grunched the thread. Obviously I'm still set on jack being a wolf, obviously that plays itself out tonight so no point pushing that one.

Why would they kill you when you forced me to out as vig. The wolves will happily let you live til endgame if keep it up like that.

[jackvance]

I'm pretty sure that jyms is a cleared villager and should be treated as such.

Someone please tell me why banana would claim if it was going to result in one of jyms or pascal, both wolves, from dying.

I agree with this. It is still possible that he is a wolf, but the wolves would have to really have had their wires crossed for this to be true. I hope he posts some more decent content during the day now.

[OngBonga]

Why would they kill you when you forced me to out as vig. The wolves will happily let you live til endgame if keep it up like that.

Forcing the vig to out is hardly something I'm going to lose sleep over. If you're the vig, then it's not really a huge deal for town, because you're not the seer, who is infinitely more important than someone who can shoot villagers. And if I force seer to out himself today by targetting him, well, again, the info he prob has is going to be huge for us. So no, I don't buy that the wolves left me because I was responsbile for giving them the vig. It's too late for that. They want the seer dead without him giving us his info.

They left me because they thought dan was the seer, it's that simple. If they weren't seer hunting last night, then they are extremely retarded.

[BooG690]

FWIW if DTB flips seer, don't get mad at me. I had little choice to stop your structurally bad decision in lynching me that I had to force his lynch to keep you from messing up even worse by lynching me. This is for the reasons I've already stated, but also because it would make you believe he really is the seer (since I will flip villager), then you would lynch Boog, and he would so often come back as villager too and you would find you left an outed seer that NOBODY believes live far too long and contort your behavior

This is the Wuf quote that JV and I are talking about. Somehow having a real seer that nobody believes is worth less than having a Wufwugy. Also, funny that here he says I come back villager so often...now I'm at the top of his suspect list.

Literally, almost nothing has changed since then.

[OngBonga]

I think there's a good chance of wuf being a wolf here. However, seer might have a villager confirm on him, and we don't want to force the seer's hand earlier than he wants.

Seer has a decision to make today. Claim today, die tonight, or gamble the info you have for another scan.

[GatorJH]

Bikes and bigred top my wolf suspect list.

If we are looking for a safe lynch then Aubrey or myself are the two best pics for today as each of us volunteered yesterday to toftt which a wolf or the seer never do.

I wil try to look things over tonight.

[Keith]

Another thing for wuf to explain is why he left his lynch vote on JV for roughly 12 hours after he had explained that the JV situation would sort itself out with wolves/vig actions.

[jyms]

i am more inclined to think there is a wolf among jyms wuf hoopy and aubrey

I agree, Chances are I could go tonight but I think we have this in the bag. The seer has a few look ups and I may have already been cleared if the timing is right. I don't think I should be the hot seat yet with JV alive, And other more suspect players.

[jyms]

aubrey is too held back for a noob. There doesn't seem to be the enthusiasm there should be in a first game of WW. Daven started out all gung ho but a small wagon on him slowed him down, but look at the posting differences. Look how much I posted the last two games back even after a long absence. This is not the posting style of a beginner trying to wolf hunt.

[jackvance]

Yeah Aubrey's a decent lynch for today. She's mainly been echoing what wuf said at times where it mattered (they're RL friends afterall), the only thing that bugs me a bit is that my villager radar went off on a few of her posts. But my wolf radar also went off on other posts of her. But she won't be a great loss coming endgame.

One thing I would like to know, Aubrey have you played WW or any of its variants on another site before?

And can you make a list of what you think of everyone? On a scale from wolf to villager.

lynch aubrey

[Hoopy]

I'd be surprised if jyms were a wolf at this point. When DTB outed the other wagons were on jyms and pascal if I remember rightly so his outing meant one of them was getting lynched.

Going to read over yesterday as it got hectic near the end.

[JKDS]

I have received questions about night action resolution.

Yes, for this game the vigilante acts after the wolves. If he is killed, his shot is lost.

[Hoopy]

Why are we talking about lynching wuf or boog? Chances are, seer has already looked one of them up. Seer has up to three confirms to share with us, we should be aiming for people he probably hasn't looked up yet, not for people who can potentially help us to lock this down.

Seems to me our best options are bikes, aubrey and bigred, but that's trying to second guess what the seer has already done.

I think talking about the seer's lookups or tactics is dangerous, we have to assume they know what they're doing and will either out at the appropriate time or drop enough hints in their posts that figuring things out will be ok.

[Hoopy]

Gizmo worries me right now. I can't point to anything particularly wolfy in his posts but amount of them is unusual for him. Ordinarily he's in the top 3rd, but this time he's the lowest poster in this thread behind me!

[OngBonga]

I have an idea to discuss before anyone actually puts this into practise...

We all post three "look ups", ie n1 - JKDS (v), n2 - rilla (v) etc. This allows the seer to post his info without having to hard claim, protecting what's important to us in the event the wolves hit him tonight. Non-seers should be thoughtful about who to claim, we'd want the wolves actually thinking you're seer.

Don't anyone spew names just yet. This is an idea for discussion and there might be flaws I'm yet to consider.

[NightGizmo]

oh btw this whole "if so no so is such n such, shoot wuf" doesn't work. if jv is vig he shoots me every damn time; if jv is not the vig, the real vig shoots him every damn time

also, at this point i am a pretty likely seer lookup. so shooting me is somewhat redundant

Wuf -- you keep contradicting yourself and making weird, flawed arguments. The way I read this, you're basically saying, "Nobody lynch me, because if JV is vig he'll kill me. But it would be dumb of the vig to shoot me." If you're so convinced that JV is a wolf, why shouldn't a vig JV kill you after you forced him to out?

[Hoopy]

aubrey lynch looks bad to me, her post on feeling frustrated with bad logic seemed genuine to me and doing a decent job of wolf hunting.

It'd be nice if she'd post thoughts on the village, like definite villagers, wolves and unknowns.

[aubreymcfate]

i passed out early last night, am at work now, and start classes today. (ugh). i'm in new york btw, so my timezone is EST, if that helps you guys have a better idea my time reference.

anyway point is: i'm going to get to this in the evening, and am posting this in the interim so you guys know i'm not mia.

[aubreymcfate]

oh, JV (i believe it was you that asked, i noticed the question while skimming the posts) - yes, this is my first WW game ever. I didn't even know about this game before wugy told me about it. and i didn't actually understand the gameplay until this present game started unfolding. i cannot stress enough how noob i am. i hadn't even read a game thread before starting this, nothing. the most i did was read some guides online that JKDS was kind enough to send me, and those only helped my conceptual understanding of the game. it wasn't until i saw how this game unfolded did i realize how the actual gameplay functions.

[jackvance]

I think talking about the seer's lookups or tactics is dangerous, we have to assume they know what they're doing and will either out at the appropriate time or drop enough hints in their posts that figuring things out will be ok.

Felt the need to quote this, just in case the seer missed it, or just glossed over it. If you get killed we can only go by what you have said in the past. At some point though, with enough info gathered, outing is a good play. But it's all up to the seer to make these decisions. The wolves are ofcourse also trying to find the seer, so they look for these hints aswell.

[daven]

Praise Lee that Dropthebanana didn't flip seer.
There are still a few players about whom we know basically nothing due to the infrequency and/or lack of content of their posts.

At the end of the last day I thought that Jyms and Bigred were the best lynch candidates - I was unsure of the veracity of Rong's claim that the Jyms lynch was bad due to Day 2 voting patterns. Rong flipping villager suggests that his claim re Jyms was legitimate (meaning he believed it). My views on Bigred haven't changed.

Lynch Bigred

[GatorJH]

I have an idea to discuss before anyone actually puts this into practise...

We all post three "look ups", ie n1 - JKDS (v), n2 - rilla (v) etc. This allows the seer to post his info without having to hard claim, protecting what's important to us in the event the wolves hit him tonight. Non-seers should be thoughtful about who to claim, we'd want the wolves actually thinking you're seer.

Don't anyone spew names just yet. This is an idea for discussion and there might be flaws I'm yet to consider.

This is a terrible idea for multiple reasons. Mostly how does the seer post if they found one of the two remaining wolves without the wolves knowing who the seer is?

Btw Daven's last post seems weird.

[Keith]

I have an idea to discuss before anyone actually puts this into practise...

We all post three "look ups", ie n1 - JKDS (v), n2 - rilla (v) etc. This allows the seer to post his info without having to hard claim, protecting what's important to us in the event the wolves hit him tonight. Non-seers should be thoughtful about who to claim, we'd want the wolves actually thinking you're seer.

Don't anyone spew names just yet. This is an idea for discussion and there might be flaws I'm yet to consider.

pretty terribad idea , wolves know who the wolves are so if seer has looked up a wolf he'll have to put the wolfs name down so that it doesn't clear the wolf for the rest of the game , and at a stroke narrows the wolves seer targets down to anybody naming a wolf. And if someone names a wolf as a villager it clears them from being the seer. makes it great for identifying seer for the wolf team.

[OngBonga]

I did think about that, but it only takes a reg villager to bink a wolf by accident and it throws them off the scent. And besides, if seer had a wolf, I feel he'd have claimed by now.

Was just a thought. It would be so bad if they hit the seer without him giving us his info.

[Keith]

been thinking this afternoon about the rong lynch. Was wuf pushing for DTB lynch yesterday not only a case of trying to cover his own ass , but also a seer hunting device. The only villager confident that DTB was a wolf would be the seer so he is more likely to be on the DTB wagon. the wolves took out rong who was on that wagon. Village thoughts during this was that wuf was saving himself, but if this is the case of wolves seer hunting, it must be more evidence that wuf is a wolf and to get the wagon on DTB rolling the other wolf is likely to be pretty early on that wagon.

so the DTB wagon was wufwugy, bikes, hoopy, Aubrey, jyms, rong

There is also a good chance that the wolves saw the same hint that JV gave about "soon learning how bad a post it was"; Therefore theres a good chance the wolves were on that JV wagon as well since there was a special hint. people voting JV after the hint were Hoopy :bigred: aubery.

Hoopy and aubery look really suspicious , and wuf has been giving villager hints for Hoopy all game . since he voted on these wagons before aubery both times i'm going to switch .

rescind aubery lynch hoopy

[NightGizmo]

I just quickly read through Bikes' posts. I didn't come up with anything definitive, but I figured I'd share the only pieces of interesting info I could find. I should also note that most of his posts are basically empty of WW content.

First, his vote against DTB yesterday was an about-face from his initial stance.

under no circumstances whatsoever should we lynch dtb today. i dunno wtf people are thinking when they say that. if there's even a remote chance that hes the seer he has to stay around and if he's a wolf then we already know he's a wolf and can lynch him at our leisure.

lynch dtb

lynch the obv wolf and be done with it

Second, he pushed for a rong lynch:

lynch danarong

something doesnt sit right about how pushy he was days 1 and 2, its to the point where it's over aggro trying to figure out where people stand on day 1, which is absurd. and IN GABE WE TRUST.

He also argued to lynch aubrey yesterday, "due to lack of experience", which is an argument I've never liked.

Anyway, I'm not convinced he's the best lynch today. But I'll revisit after I got through some more history, I guess.

[bikes]

i am inclined to think boog is not a wolf

if boog is a wolf and dtb threw him under the bus that would essentially end the game. because then the real seer would out and there would be only 1 remaining wolf and then the chance of the last wolf winning would be near less than like ~7% based on numbers alone and less so given that the real seer outs all the villagers hes looked up before he dies. so say like 4% wolves win if team wolf decided to throw boog under the bus. team wolf is not that dumb with DTB in team wolf because DTB is not dumb.

and for that reason i like my jyms lynch. team wolf decides "this is it, dtb's Apocalypse" and votes for him. which largely leads to my belief there is a wolf among the people who voted for DTB and since it can't be me or rong that leaves wuf, aubrey jyms and hoopy.

i am all for a course of lynch jyms, shoot aubrey and if a wolf is not found then lynching hoopy and wufwugy in that order

I just quickly read through Bikes' posts. I didn't come up with anything definitive, but I figured I'd share the only pieces of interesting info I could find. I should also note that most of his posts are basically empty of WW content.

yeah science bitch

[NightGizmo]

Are you quoting your one decent-sized post to argue that most of your posts haven't been fluff?

[bikes]

maffs not your strong suit either i supposes =(

[daven]

more thread review. I initially thought that day 1 might be all empty junk, but Pascal managed to scream wolf that day - so there's a good chance that someone else screwed up there as well. Day 1 and the Jyms wagon that derailed after he miraculously reappeared still seems noteworthy to me, especially in light of his subsequent inactivity EXCEPT when it looked like his arse might be on the line...

wufwugy's drunk post (34) is interesting in hindsight. I doubt he'd be so excited to lynch Pascal if he was a wolf. But then I'm not sure what to make of him thinking Ongbonga is lock villager, nor about him deciding Gabe was a good day 1 lynch.

Keith's original decision that Wuf is lock-wolf seems to have been made in post 60, although he did move from wuf to instead lynch an inactive, and then he decided that Jyms/Boog are an obvious wolf-team (post 193).

Once we pretty much agreed to go for an inactive it was Jyms vs Fulksey, then Jyms turned up pretty quickly with a 'wifi was down' coincidence post.

end of day votes were:

Vote Count 1.07
Pascal (4): TLR, Daven, Ongbonga
Daven(3): Jackvance, Bigred
Fulksey (11, Lynch!): Boog690, Gabe, Pascal, Nightgizmo, Xtr1000, Aubrey, GatorJH, Wufwugy, DropTheBanana, Bikes, Jyms
JackVance (1): Hoopy
Boog (1): Keith

Not Voting.: Fulksy and Rong.

THREAD IS LOCKED. DEATH SCENE INCOMING

NO MORE POSTING IN THREAD

Players closing out the lynch were 11th vote - Jyms, 10th vote - Bikes, 9th vote - Dropthebanana, 8th vote - Wufwugy, 7th vote -GatorJH

of these we have one known wolf and 4 maybes.

[OngBonga]

I think I only started to get fulsky's name right this game, which is weird since he hasn't even posted.

[daven]

This is a terrible idea for multiple reasons. Mostly how does the seer post if they found one of the two remaining wolves without the wolves knowing who the seer is?

Btw Daven's last post seems weird.

ja, i shouldn't be discounting Jyms simply based on Rong's post.
rescind Bigred for now until i figure out for myself whether Jyms is lock-villager. His timing on the day 1 Fulksey wagon makes me more suspicious of him again.

about to look at the day 2 wagons

[daven]

Players closing out the lynch were 11th vote - Jyms, 10th vote - Bikes, 9th vote - Dropthebanana, 8th vote - Wufwugy, 7th vote -GatorJH

of these we have one known wolf and 4 maybes.

there is likely to be another wolf among these players

[jyms]

Fulskey wagon is getting rid of inactives which we say we are going to do everygame, I don't think we should use it as a sole indication of wolfiness.

Seer throwing hints is a bad idea, we know what the seer sees by his posts after the wolves get him or he outs at last second. I'm not bolding anyone at this moment because I don't need any more revenge votes on me, I think we have enough info right now to make some pretty good deductive lynches

[jyms]

there is likely to be another wolf among these players

Any of the 11 could be a wolf, even the wolves would start a wagon against an inactive villager. I'd bet all 4 wolves are in that wagon

[OngBonga]

Any of the 11 could be a wolf, even the wolves would start a wagon against an inactive villager. I'd bet all 4 wolves are in that wagon

If that's the case, then rest assured gator is not one of them.

[OngBonga]

Actually, having said that, gator only hopped onto fulsky after I called him our for a suspicious dan vote, so I don't think my comment above holds true.

[Hoopy]

Btw Daven's last post seems weird.

Please explain.

I'm feeling gizmo is a wolf. If JV is actually the vig (seems more likely now) then I don't know who the final one is.

lynch Nightgizmo

[daven]

i made this post on day 2

TLR being killed is the only completely solid info we have to go on at the moment, it suggests that we should look more closely at Pascal and Hoopy.

it was pointed out that Pascal and Hoopy (as wolves) wouldn't be so obvious as to kill TLR as it would immediately bring them under suspicion. This argument seems less strong now that we know Pascal was a wolf. I'm starting to wonder about Hoopy again.

early day 2 voting and the following is the only thing that really stands out to me:

Hoopy made what seems a fairly key early vote for Pascal (368).
Jackvance moved to Hoopy setting up a likely two wagons (Hoopy vs Pascal), then Ongbonga moved away from Dropthebanana putting him down to 1 vote vs 3 on Hoopy and Pascal
Hoopy's wagon was all low content posters.

post 425

Vote Count 2.04
Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(3): Rong, Pascal, Ongbonga
Jyms(4): Bikes, Wufwugy, Aubrey, Dropthebanana
Pascal(4): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy, Xtr1000

Not Voting: nightgizmo

Deadline is in 7hours, 1min. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

Superbowl squares!!!!!!!!!!!!!

then a jyms wagon took off, Just as he appeared to be at risk Jyms turned up to defend again WITHOUT moving his vote from Boog - then Wufwugy instantly moved his vote away from Jyms and onto Dropthebanana - that's another lynch move that Wufwugy is unlikely to make as a wolf.

Vote Count 2.04
Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690
Boog(1): Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong, Pascal
Jyms(7): Bikes, Wufwugy, Aubrey, Dropthebanana, Keith, Nightgizmo, Gabe
Pascal(4): Daven, Hoopy, Xtr1000, Ongbonga

Not voting: No one.

Deadline is in 3hrs, 45min. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

Should a tie occur, the leading wagon just before the tie occurred will win. It matters not who was winning prior to this tie, nor if other ties preceded it.

The only game information given exclusively to the wolves is what was contained in their role pm.

A friend of mine from High School is a Furry.

Last four players moving to Dropthebanana before he fake-outed were Gabe, Boog, Hoopy, GatorJH. It's likely that at least two of the remaining three are villagers.

The move from Dropthebanana to Pascal at this point doesn't tell us much at all, Pascal was already looking like the most likely wolf and if the wolves were in a position where they had to choose between lynching Pascal and retaining Dropthebanana who had just fake-outed as seer then it's pretty likely that they would choose to lynch Pascal. Jyms was the 7th vote on Pascal, but at that point it was looking mostly likely to be one of Pascal/Jyms who got lynched. I'm not sure why Wufwugy wanted to move off Pascal just as he was about to get lynched though, even though it was too late.

ok, i still can't see why 'day 2 voting patterns' clear Jyms from being a wolf. Claiming that his vote for Pascal clears him could easily be a premeditated wolf move.

[jyms]

I don't see how I am clear either, I just think there are better choices