I find these spots tough to analyze mostly because of my interpretation of bet sizing.

If I'm faced with this sizing on the river, I'm much more likely to turn some low pair or 7x into a bluff, but I'm not sure most people think that way.

What's his AF? Is he more likely to raise a FD on the flop?

We're talking bvb vs a player you've been running over preflop. I think I'd go for value $16-17ish.