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 Originally Posted by pocketfours
Why do you want to 4-bet this and are you calling a shove? It's a pretty bad choice for a 4-bet bluff and imo too weak to stack off with against this nit. Calling only $3 more hoping he checks down AK or stacks off when we hit a set seems better than folding imo.
I didn't do any actual math to come to that, but it just seems like vs typical 40bber sb-button strategy we should be 4bet jamming almost any pair. If he's 3-bet getting in every pair also though, I suppose we can fold the weakest pps. I think 55-66 would be a fairly trivial shove vs most 40bbers. Calling is maybe ok given he made it so small (which discourages us 4-betting to begin with).
0 = 8x - 42(1-x)(1-e) + (47-3)(1-x)(e)
If e = 35% then he needs to fold nearly 60% of the time which is a tall order. But when you consider he's 3-betting probably his entire vpip range from the sb vs a min-opening button, its probable that he's starting with well over 15% of hands, and the farther past 10% he's playing the more it skews 22's equity towards being a flip when called or getting a fold to our push.
My final analysis would be that 44.1 is ever-so-slightly too deep to 4-bet this, and calling is extremely marginal even for the odds.
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