Drug smugglers and Feds gameplay thread

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm confused.

Why is it better for the Village to take out Pascal and the Vig take out Ong, instead of the other way around?
I.e. village take out Ong and Vig take out Pascal.

[JKDS]

We know pascal is town. Ong attacked him, a lot. It sucks that he's getting modkilled, but we need to use our lynches to go after wolves. It's really the only way they die, and wasting that opportunity is shitty.

Math wise, its not too bad to have 3 deaths either. The village has a greater chance of winning with an odd number of players during the day. (think endgame, finding 1 wolf in 3 players is easier than 1 in 4.)

If pascal had any chance of wolfin, its not a terrible Lynch. But ong wanted him dead, and that's reason enough to ignore him.

[NightGizmo]

rong said that the modkill would come at the start of night 2. therefore we have all of today to let pascal return. we'll kick ourselves if he's the reviver and we lynch him quickly.

Good point, so we shouldn't quick-wagon him with over 12 hours left in the day.

MMM -- Pascal will be dead at the start of night 2. That means he'll be dead before the vig can take a shot.

[JKDS]

@mmm: because night kills don't get a chance to out themselves and change our mind. Whoever we Lynch/kill has a nonzero percent chance of being a special, and we want to avoid killing them. The best way for thay to happen is to allow them chances to defend.

[NightGizmo]

rescind pascal

Thanks JKDS, that's a solid argument.

[JKDS]

Also, plz be focusing on people ong incriminated, and not ones he's essentially cleared. I don't believe his exchange with jyms was ingenuine, therefore jyms is likely town. Yeah hes not being helpful, but that's also commonly how he plays.

[wufwugy]

To those who think I shouldn't have outed, I'll briefly explain why it was the right move

1. Attacking Ong without outing wasn't possible because he wasn't posting and I knew the wolves knew the receiver knew about him. They were on the look out for suspicious behavior in treatment of Ong. This means that if I attacked Ong, I would most likely be nom'd, and if I didn't and still ended up dying before clarifying, the seer would likely think that Ong was a villager, which he would tell the villager after my death. Then we all lose

2. I confirmed that I will come out today after I confirmed a second wolf yesterday. I'm close to confirming three wolves and possibly the fourth as well (but probably not the fourth). That sounds boisterous, but you'll see. Ong gave up some key info he didn't mean to. It will take me a couple hours to put it all together, but I'll have my mega post up soonish.

[wufwugy]

BTW, we'll be lynching Ong today and the vig will give me his bullet. I already know who I'm going to shoot, and the wolves will block it because they have no other use for that block power anymore. I haven't checked the exact deadline that the reviver has to act, but if he can do it after I die, he should revive me. I'll probably explain more later

[jyms]

We know pascal is town. Ong attacked him, a lot. It sucks that he's getting modkilled, but we need to use our lynches to go after wolves. It's really the only way they die, and wasting that opportunity is shitty.

Math wise, its not too bad to have 3 deaths either. The village has a greater chance of winning with an odd number of players during the day. (think endgame, finding 1 wolf in 3 players is easier than 1 in 4.)

If pascal had any chance of wolfin, its not a terrible Lynch. But ong wanted him dead, and that's reason enough to ignore him.

Pretty good way to distance yourself from the possible modkill of a wolf. He gets a ton of cred if Pascal is a wolf

[JKDS]

Well if my argument for leaving him alone when hes a villager holds, then the scenario where hes a wolf and gets modkilled only strengthens the reasoning to leave him be.

I wanna see what wuf has to say with his massive post, but agree that vig should probably just give the bullet to him.

[JKDS]

Wait, no. We're shooting ong, wuf. We dont want to accidentally hit the reviver or someone :/

[jyms]

Wait, no. We're shooting ong, wuf. We dont want to accidentally hit the reviver or someone :/

Ya I think that the vig should pop Ong and the village can decide on the lynch if we decide we aren't taking out pascal, depending on this long post of Wuf's and peoples opinion of it.

[daven]

Oh snap!

rescind ImSavy

We could have the vig nominate wuf/JKDS who then shoot Ong tonight. It's can be blocked but kind of a waste for the wolves.

i disagree with who the vig nominates
vig should nominate bikes or hoopy to shoot ong

[daven]

But if the vig picks a wolf they get to choose who they shoot, so they'll just pick a villager.

and then we have two confirmed wolves. Why are you opposed to using this tool to hunt wolves?

[jyms]

Oh shit, ya this is a nom vig. There is a lot of room for errors here without some clear wolf/village lines

[daven]

shit, just read that again, well spotted hoopy
hoopy is more and more looking confirmed villager

[jyms]

I think nomming Wuf to shoot might be ok so long as we see his ideas in this post of his.

[daven]

hang on, if we tell the vig to shoot ong and they shoot someone else, then we get another confirmed wolf right?

[jyms]

No, we would just be giving the wolf villager cred, he's going to shoot ONG regardless if the village tells him to.

[daven]

Maybe I can provide some.

1) 20% chance he's a wolf (3/15) when modkilled.

2) Lynching him gives wolves an easy play for today, "lynching to avoid the modkill". Rather than forcing them to make actual votes.

3) We'll be in the same position tomorrow, Pascal = Wolf doesn't give us anything to go off since he's never posted. Pascal = Villager means nothing as well.

but pascal = villager AND modkilled is worse than pascal = villager and lynched unless we bingo a wolf again today, right? and if he's wolf, then lynching a wolf is rarely bad

[JKDS]

Its not terrible, but if we pick a wolf and they dont kill ong...then they kill me and wuf and the village loses both its confirmed villagers. But we get a second wolf...so its not awful.

But...its not a tool to confirm a villager. If the person we pick DOES kill ong, that doesnt mean anything regarding his role.

[jackvance]

I don't see the point of picking someone other than one of our confirmed villagers. Even if it's a wolf then they'll most likely shoot ong anyway, so it doesn't matter.

[JKDS]

JV, before wuf posts, who do you think the other 3 wolves are and why?

[jackvance]

And I dunno what daven is on about, he missed something simple, then says he gives villager cred to Hoopy for it? Feels a bit.. weird.

[wufwugy]

Behold: teh uber post to end all uber
Actually it won't be super uber because
I'm breaking it into pieces because
it's so massive and my thoughts
aren't fully fleshed out yet

The Wolves

Daven - You guys didn't like this post, but as we're soon to find out, it was right. However, my current case for Daven is not predicated on it anymore, but instead on the blatant protectionist reactions Ong would eventually take with the Daven wagon.

We begin with Ong hopping on Daven after me, then Aubrey hops on. Daven went on to say some crap about how he's allowed to do stuff I'm not. Ong pretended that Daven's side was the right one; even Rilla got into the fray on Daven's side. I was kinda baffled by all this because Daven's contradiction was so blatant, but whatever. Shit isn't heavy yet, but will soon be

Jyms gets up to 5 votes, Daven still at 3, everything is dandy. Then jyms drops to 3 and Ong quickly unbolds Daven and starts a Eug wagon for no reason. As we're finding out, Ong did this because Jyms is not a wolf but Daven is, and he can't be having Daven lead at this time. Some stuff happens: all current wagons including Daven's drop to 2 or less, Gabe gets some heat, and the Eug wagon explodes. Now is when Ong unwittingly betrays Daven

After the Eug wagon is huge, Ong bolds Daven again. It's safe now. But then the JVP, his lustrous blonde hair flowing in the wind as his stallion gallops through the fray, bolds Daven making it tied 4 and 4 with Eug, with me and JV on Daven, two villagers with some sway. And wouldn't you know it, Ong immediately pops off Daven, confirming that he can't tolerate a Daven wagon. He even goes so far as to claim that "Daven won't be lynched today". To which I ask him how he can be so sure since his wagon had good headwinds.

I see that many around here think Daven's and Ong's behavior towards each other is villagery, but it's not. A lot of FTR players know that attacking each other is good but only when it's inconsequential. Boog has done it (to Ong, even), Rilla and I did it, and Ong will definitely do it. I know from my modding when he was wolf that he doesn't have a high expectation of living and that wolves hedging against each other is good

However, this doesn't carryover to when attacking each other becomes an actual problem. Wolves love to bold each other when it's safe, but when it gets hairy, they circle the wagons and protect the women and children from the invading savages on horseback

Daven is wolf at 95% probability. He is a must kill now. Ong's behavior is too incriminating.


Gabe - Another post nobody was a fan of, but that we'll see was also right. However, my current case for Gabe is not predicated on it either. Making this case through links with Ong is a far trickier one than with Daven, but it still works. The first place we need to look is at Ong's sole Day 2 post before I outed. We have to remember that not only did Ong and the wolves know that the receiver knew his role, but that they didn't know who the receiver is yet not necessarily that the receiver knows the wolves know.

Ong's reaction to the night action knowledge was to shut up, and he didn't post for most of the day because of it. He didn't know what to do and hoped to spy the receiver making a mistake, but after I posted and bolded Gabe, there were no tells. So here Ong has a decision to make. He and his team know he dead and that the hidden receiver knows him. Ong knows there is little point to playing normal and little point to trying to get a villager killed because it won't work and will just make that villager look like a villager. But he also doesn't know who the receiver is, so he can't try to trick him. With that in mind, Ong knows his bold won't matter much, but he isn't sure if the receiver knows he knows, and thus he is prompted to try to do something.

That something is follow my bold on Gabe. He has no reason to follow if Gabe is a villager, but if Gabe is a wolf, Ong has reason to believe that the receiver will think Ong is acting without the knowledge that the receiver knows Ong knows the receiver knows. This all sounds convoluted, but I think it is only on the surface. It boils down to some level 1 (maybe 2) thought processes that invoke Ong to bold Gabe because he's a fellow wolf. But it isn't any level above that because that would require Ong to make a ton of assumptions about what the village thinks

After we establish this, we can examine Gabe and know there is meaning behind it (even if you think Ong bolded him because he's a villager. There's still meaning for why). Let's now move into Gabe's actions

He bolds Bikes while there is little going on; Daven is tied with Jyms at 3 and Ong is on Daven. Stuff happens: Jyms takes the lead but then drops down and ties Bikes, Ong starts the Eug wagon. Nothing to get Gabe going here. But then people start bolding Gabe, and he pops in with some super conviction about Eug. He had a choice to make: stay on Bikes or go after Eug. Staying on Bikes wasn't that great an option, but going after Eug was. He was a good target for special, and a wolf-Gabe would (and Ong) want to put heat on the likely specials. The most important part about this, however, is that it was after Gabe started getting some heat that he went after Eug hard. He's a little too paranoid about being lynched and he wanted to cut the wagon off at the pass.

Cue JV saying "wow" to Gabe's massive shift to Eug, cue me later pointing out all the ways in which Gabe was not acting that smartly and was going over the top with how super villagery he's supposed to be. He never had any case for Eug, but was just fine with killing him. His level of conviction was made doubly weird due to having never played with Eug and claiming how confident he was but without much convincing evidence. He basically "soulread" the fuck out of Eug on Day 1, and you gotta ask yourself if you think Gabe ever does this as a villager. I don't think he does. Cue the million times Gabe later said things like "I'm doing all these things only a villager would do. Look at them. I'm such a villagebro, bro."

Notice that Ong completely ignored everything I said about Gabe. He also ignored the wagon started by Luco and MMM. A strategy wolves like to use is pairing up, so to speak. Ong would go after Daven when he can, partly because Gabe is more likely to be attacked anyways. Overall, this is a much tougher case to make, and I'm not nearly as confident on Gabe as I am Daven. The way the wagoning goes down doesn't implicate Gabe like it does Daven, but Ong's bold of Gabe strikes me as being done only because Gabe is a wolf. Ong bolding Gabe makes him look more like a villager regardless of his role, and I don't see Ong decided to bold him for any reason other than he's a fellow wolf

Yesterday I was about 85% confident that Gabe is a wolf, but after going over it more, I'm lower. I still have a ton left to figure out. With further review, I might pull back on Gabe. I spent most of yesterday thinking Jyms was baddy and Rilla was villager, but now that has sorta flipped. I haven't yet looked closely enough at Rilla, but am confident Jyms is a villager after Daven flips wolf




I implore everybody to go back over it with the knowledge that Daven is a wolf as well as Ong. You guys should lynch him tomorrow if I get the bullet and the wolves block it

[bikes]

i want you to be right so we can win but i also want you to be wrong because it will make me happy that you typed all that out and were wrong after puffing it up to be gods gift to ww

[jackvance]

JV, before wuf posts, who do you think the other 3 wolves are and why?

Hm, one of bikes and aubrey, possibly both but that would mean bikes tried to throw aubrey under the bus, doesn't seem that likely. Daven is being a bit strange, but like I said before most likely villager. Then some open options for Hoopy (I always find him wolfy), MMM (I don't know him), Jyms (being so.. mysterious). Playing in the micromillions on stars atm so have to focus on that.

[jyms]

On my phone right now but if wuf's details and timeline about Ong and daven are accurate then I don't see why we can't take out daven now.

[wufwugy]

i want you to be right so we can win but i also want you to be wrong because it will make me happy that you typed all that out and were wrong after puffing it up to be gods gift to ww

I know I'm the worst

[gabe]

Actually, I'm also suspicious of Gabe. He keeps giving bad advice to the village.

1. He tells the angel to out himself, even though he doesn't know if the power is one-shot or not.
2. He tells the reviver to choose eugmac tonight, even though we could get another seer lookup result if he waits another day.
3. He wants the vig choice to go to a wolf (maybe an honest mistake, or maybe hoping that rule confusion will give his team a second night nom).

you are summarizing what I said unfairly. I don't know if you're knowingly doing this to cast me as a fed or what.
1. did I ever tell the angel to out himself??? I said the best play is for the angel to always protect himself day 1, and if everyone knew this was the best play, then the angel could out. I still stand by this and if you try to twist my logic it makes you seem like a wolf
2. what?? how do we get another seer lookup if we don't revive? I've been on a phone 99% of the game for the first time and it has made me make some mistakes since I haven't easily been able to refer to the rules (like #3). I'm not sure what you mean but I still like the idea of reviving a villager ASAP before we risk losing the reviver tomorrow night
3. this was a misunderstanding caused by these janky rules. how is this not obvious? thinking it makes me wolfy is super wild speculation. also maybe we should use someone besides wuf/jkds but I need to think about it more

[gabe]

one thing I do as a villager is always act in the village's best interest so logical players can deduce I'm town. all game
I've acted in the village's best interest. I stand by any posts I've made; even when I've misinterpreted or misremembered the rules, my intentions were always with the villagers

[gabe]

wuf I think your only good point about me is that since ong could know he was looked up then be might smartly also bold me if I was a wolf. but the rest of your stuff doesn't work. and I think you're wrong to think I played a fishy day 1 as a villager

[jyms]

Did I miss something where ong knew he was looked up? How does he know this?

[aubreymcfate]

well i'm going to assume wuf is on a roll from last game and hope for the best. it doesnt hurt to test out his theory - if we nab a wolf, the other stuff falls into place even harder. and if we don't, it's still going to be telling to some degree. we're at an advantage, no?

lynch daven

because i was somewhat suspicious if him in the beginning too, and wuf basing much of his argument around that incident makes it hold more weight now.

also

hang on, if we tell the vig to shoot ong and they shoot someone else, then we get another confirmed wolf right?

like i said, why would a wolf vig ever kill a villager?? that's a dead giveaway and not worth it for them. would wolf daven say something like this with the intention of leading the village astray? or was he just confused? could've been, but he seems like the strongest option we have atm.

[NightGizmo]

2. what?? how do we get another seer lookup if we don't revive? I've been on a phone 99% of the game for the first time and it has made me make some mistakes since I haven't easily been able to refer to the rules (like #3). I'm not sure what you mean but I still like the idea of reviving a villager ASAP before we risk losing the reviver tomorrow night

If wuf is eaten tonight and the reviver uses his power tonight, we have no way of knowing the result of the seer's lookup. But if wuf is revived on night 3, we get that lookup result from night 2.

You're right, I am speculating -- I acknowledged in #3 that it could be an honest mistake, and your comment that prompted #1 is ambiguous. But I still think some of your advice to the village has been bad.

[wufwugy]

Did I miss something where ong knew he was looked up? How does he know this?

The wolves have a one-time power that shows them the lookup sent to the receiver. Any good wolf team would use it on Night 1 because that's highest probability effectiveness. However, that doesn't prove that it was used. What demonstrates that the wolves know it was used is that Ong disappeared. He has been posting regularly at certain times during the day, but then on Day 2 just vanished. He then popped in saying "he was busy" and posted just once for a spell. If he didn't know he was looked up, he would never post like that. After I outed, he acted as if he knew all along it was coming

[NightGizmo]

Did I miss something where ong knew he was looked up? How does he know this?

One-shot power:

Game info
4 feds(wolves) have infiltrated the gang. They have some powers too, as follows:
- Interception. A one shot ability see who the seer looked up that night.

I think Rong further explained that the seer/receiver will not know that they were intercepted, but wuf deduced it from Ong's silence on Day 2.

[gabe]

If wuf is eaten tonight and the reviver uses his power tonight, we have no way of knowing the result of the seer's lookup. But if wuf is revived on night 3, we get that lookup result from night 2.

ya ok I agree. looking back I guess this was what rilla was saying without spelling it out

if the angel is one shot, does giving them a new revived life give them their shot back?

OK I gotta get back to hunting. I'm getting owned sweating these rules

[wufwugy]

I'm going to take a break. I'm not sure how much more I can go on because some of my reads depend on Gabe being a wolf, but at this point that's too far out and convoluted.

I somewhat agree with Gabe that Ong's bolding of him is the best argument. His actions have been suspicious, but not incriminating. But if you can figure out exactly why Ong bolded Gabe, you can know his role. I feel like this is a scenario in which Ong didn't bold Gabe flippantly, but for a reason


My solid reads right now are that Daven is wolf, and after he flips it will be confirmed that JV, Jyms, and Aubrey are villagers. Ong's prompt dissolution of Daven's wagon at the key times shows that those who were on his wagon or related in some special way are not wolves. JV was the one who pushed the wagon to the brink and Ong hopped off immediately. Jyms wasn't on the Daven wagon, but he was the counter-wagon that Ong was okay with letting go forward. These are the stronger cases. Aubrey is the next one. While it is possible Aubrey is also wolf on Daven's wagon, it's very unlikely

[jyms]

Well if it clears me then I can go with it.

Lynch Daven and have the vig shoot Ong. Or give it to wuf or whaqtever.

I'm at a pool party/bbq all day tomorrow but will have my phone. Just putting it out there now if night falls and I'm not back until Sunday.

[a500lbgorilla]

The wolves have a one-time power that shows them the lookup sent to the receiver. Any good wolf team would use it on Night 1 because that's highest probability effectiveness. However, that doesn't prove that it was used. What demonstrates that the wolves know it was used is that Ong disappeared. He has been posting regularly at certain times during the day, but then on Day 2 just vanished. He then popped in saying "he was busy" and posted just once for a spell. If he didn't know he was looked up, he would never post like that. After I outed, he acted as if he knew all along it was coming

1:Lowest.

2:Would only prove if you could demonstrate it is impossible for Ong to have disappeared for any other reason.

[a500lbgorilla]

I suppose the wolf team would have good reason to use it night 1 to attempt to find the receiver by looking for shifts in opinion of the first look up. I just can't help but shake the feeling that some really poor analysis is going on.

[JKDS]

Someone confirm for me that wuf is accurate with his vote count totals regarding daven and ong. I missed that and don't have timr to go through it.

If hes inaccurate, then daven is conf villager...but if not then his argument makes sense.

[a500lbgorilla]

lynch jackvance

[a500lbgorilla]

I suppose the wolf team would have good reason to use it night 1 to attempt to find the receiver by looking for shifts in opinion of the first look up. I just can't help but shake the feeling that some really poor analysis is going on.

I take this back. I started reading the thread backwards and just expected to see something that didn't materialize. Or not really take it back as say my emotional hunch at seeing the tale end of the thread was off.

[a500lbgorilla]

lynch daven

My jackvance lynch before was after seeing the post he threw together after JKDS pushed him for some reads.

About the count, I didn't actually verify the specific numbers, but it looks correct and I have no reason to suspect wuf of being deceitful - the daven case is incredibly solid.

[a500lbgorilla]

Also, GatorJH is in this game - PSA.

[daven]

the daven case is incredibly solid.

unfortunately for the village, the daven case is wrong.
wuf, you know how you think you're a werewolf god? well....
as for people happy to go with his reasoning without critically looking into things themselves, up to you i guess
Jyms, you might well be a villager. But it seems that you don't really understand what the game is doing. The game as a villager is about trying to find/hunt wolves, not about surviving to endgame. You win as part of a team, whether you are alive for the victory or not.
there are a number of players who drifted through day 1, and seem to be drifting through day 2.
i'm not going to go with postcounts or whatever, but the following players feel mia to me:
bikes, keith, luco.

I'll do a readthrough after i get back in from a run in a couple of hours.

there's merit in finding a likely wolf and running wagons between me and whoever that is. Then give wuf the bullet tonight and he can shoot me and feel incredibly stupid in the morning when he realises how wrong he has got things.
Making the day shorter and quickly lynching me isn't good for us, it's another wolf-wet-dream scenario = don't have to post, villagers drive a villager lynch, etc

[a500lbgorilla]

I actually really like the case against gabe too.

Also, there are tiers of verifying his story. You can scroll around that area and trust the numbers wuf posted at the time, or you can peer-review his statements and count them yourself. I took the relatively easier road.

Anyway, I'm a little bit in love with wuf right now.

[Keith]

You win as part of a team, whether you are alive for the victory or not.
there are a number of players who drifted through day 1, and seem to be drifting through day 2.
i'm not going to go with postcounts or whatever, but the following players feel mia to me:
bikes, keith, luco.

what ? did you miss the posts where i kept going at wuf because he was acting differently.......what do you know, he was a special.Did you miss where I said that i was on a tractor all day for the first 3days of this game. Have you missed the posts where i keep pointing out the inconsistencies/errors that Jyms has been making today.Now jyms suddenly is going to be absent because of a pool party. did you miss where i said we could lynch/revive gabe who wuf is now pointing at as one of his main suspects. Have you missed where i keep making the case for dragging this day out to give maximum chance for pascal to get involved. I do have a problem with wufs theory but it doesn't make it any better for you. Also ....you talk of missing in action.... where on earth is savvy

[jyms]

I said in absent tomorrow. It's only 5 pm. I put it out there with some notice actually.

[NightGizmo]

I won't be around anymore tonight, so I have to pick a vote now. There is a small chance I'll be able to jump back into the thread shortly before it closes for the night, we'll see.

I re-read bikes' posts, which was pretty easy given how few there are. And how short each one is.

lynch bikes

Wuf -- nice theory on daven. I didn't have a chance to re-read through his posts, so I don't feel confident enough to put my vote on him today.

[GatorJH]

OK, work no longer sucks now so I am back online and TRYING to catch up. Just scanned the last few pages and HOLY SHIT!!! I can't remember the last time a game got this interesting on Day 2, but IIRC it was a similar situation as this and the village rolled so I like our chances.

Before I go back through Ong's posts to see if I can pickup on anything I will post some of my general thoughts on the discussions that have happened recently.

Vig has to shoot Ong tonight, not lynch Ong and shoot X. I totally agree with whoever (I think it was Jyms) stated that shooting anyone other than Ong risks hitting a special. If Rong could confirm that actions happen before modkill then there may be some value in shooting Pascal if he still hasn't shown up (which would give him until the very end of the day to get here), but I haven't completely thought that through so there may be flaws to that strategy.

[gabe]

jyms bikes daven all seem good to me. I think going with accusations made by known villagers can't be a bad idea


my only missteps this game were related to not grasping the rules and game conditions. I'm all villager

[JKDS]

I'm very happy with a bikes v daven wagon. Maybe give me the bullet so I for sure shoot ong though. Wuf is gonna wuf with it lol.

[GatorJH]

I just went through Ong's Day 1 posts and excuse me if this has been covered (which it probably has and I just haven't made it that far in my read), but I don't see Daven being a Fed. While Ong voted for several people on Day 1 he targeted Daven the hardest which would be a pretty balsy play on Day 1. He even left his Daven vote out there when it could go either way and finally targeted him AGAIN later in the day (I am pretty sure the Eug bandwagon had stalled about that time).

That's a pretty balsy play if Daven really is a Fed.

Now, with that said, if Daven DOES flip Fed I think the last two may be Luco and Imsavvy. VERY early in Day one he voted for them then pretty quickly rescinded. This would also fit with the some of the wolves may be weak theory, which would also explain the higher variance play with Daven and Ong. He also then threw out an "early villager read" for savvy later in the day. Personally I see this being more wolf day one banter than the Daven thing.

Keep in mind those are my thoughts from reading ong's, and ONLY ong's, day one posts.

[Savy]

I've been on a phone 99% of the game for the first time and it has made me make some mistakes since I haven't easily been able to refer to the rules (like #3). I'm not sure what you mean but I still like the idea of reviving a villager ASAP before we risk losing the reviver tomorrow night

I'm confused by this, why does being on a phone mean that you aren't aware of the rules? Surely if you're not paying proper attention and hence weren't aware of the rules then you wouldn't be trying to give "deep" advice to the village attempting to suggest the best action to be taken?

[Savy]

Also SAVY, ,not SAVVVVVVVVVVVVVVY.

I have also had a read through the thread (arguably not in the best frame of mind) and I don't really see a huge amount of stuff to comment on, finding it quite hard to keep track of all the little arguments.

JKDS has always seemed to have some random agenda against myself, and I don't really see where it's come from because it appeared before the lack of posting, and he even attempted to suggest that I was a wolf because he had targeted myself and therefore I was a large enough voice in the wolf camp to try and get rid of him for this. Just seems a bit odd.

[Savy]

By little arguments I obviously mean people starting little accusations between themselves, I think that's what you've been referring to as wagons.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Is it seriously between bikes and daven at this point... no votes for ong, and none for Pascal?

OK, well, bikes has posted next to nothing... certainly nothing I have gotten a read off of, so

lynch bikes

I think the greatest help I can be to the village is to say that this game makes no sense to me.

I see shadows in everything. I no longer trust anything I think about this game, since anything that makes sense to a noob is leagues beneath an experienced player. I had Ong as more Vil than wolf... apparently wrong. jyms and JKDS have seemed wolfy from the start, and now the vibe is that they're lock vil's.

So my reads are worthless, and that means my votes are worthless, so do with that what you will. I'll keep doing my best to help, but I must admit that it seems my best is of little-to-no use to anyone except as a distraction.

[Keith]

ok so this is how the voting affected the wagons. I missed out dome of the voting where the person voted for didn't affect the major vote counts and the people at risk


22 jkds jyms (jyms 1)
87 ng jyms (jyms2)
88 MMM jyms (jyms 3)
100 wuf daven (jyms 3 daven 1)
101 ong daven (jyms 3 daven 2)
104 aubrey daven (jyms 3 daven 3)
115 sav jyms (jyms 4 daven 3)
116 gabe bikes (jyms 4 daven 3 bikes 1)
119 jv bikes (jyms 4 daven 3 bikes 2)
120 luco jyms (jyms 5 daven 3 bikes 2)
132 hoopy pascal ???
150 jyms bikes (jyms 5 : daven 3 bikes 3) why didnt jyms go daven???
164 jkds rescind jyms (jyms 4 : daven 3 bikes 3)
165NG rescind jyms lynch bikes (jyms 3 : daven 3 bikes 4)
184 ong rescind daven lynch eugmac (jyms 3 : daven 2 bikes 4:eug)
185 ng rescinds bikes lynch pascal (jyms 3 : daven 2 bikes 3:eug 1: pascal3)
209 luco rescind jyms lynch gabe (jyms 2 : daven 2 bikes 3:eug 1: pascal3)
211MMM rescind jyms lynch gabe (jyms 1 : daven 2 bikes 3:eug 1: pascal3)
239 rilla rescind ong lynch jyms (jyms 2 : daven 2 bikes 3:eug 1: pascal3)
250 gabe rescind bikes eug (jyms 2 : daven 2 bikes 2:eug 2: pascal3)
252 JV rescind bikes lynch keith (jyms 2 : daven 2 bikes 1:eug 2: pascal3)
277 eug rescind gizmo lynch gabe

#282rong count (wrong ....corrected for pascal error)
Pascal - 2 (Hoopy, Bikes)
Gabe - 3 (Luco, MMM, Eug)
Wuf - 2 (Keith, Daven)
Jyms - 2 (Rilla, Savy)
Daven - 2 (Wuf, Aubrey)
Eug - 2 (Ong, Gabe)
Bikes - 1 (Jyms)
Savy - 1 (JKDS)
Keith - 1 (JV)

#288 bikes rescind pascal lynch eug (pascal 1 gabe 3 wuf 2 jyms 2 daven 2 eug 3)
#289 rilla rescind jyms lynch eug (pascal 1 gabe 3 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 4)
#293 luco rescind gabe lynch eug (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 5)
#294 ong rescind eug lynch daven (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 3 eug 4)
#302 JV rescind keith lynch daven (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 4 eug 4)
#305 ong rescind daven (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 3 eug 4)
#317 gator lynch eug (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 3 eug 5)
#320 wuf rescind daven lynch gabe (pascal 1 gabe 3 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 6)
#323 MMM rescind gabe lynch eug(pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 6)
#327 ong lycnh eug (pascal 1 gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 7)
#329 hoopy rescind pascal lynch eug (gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 8)
#333 NG lynch eug (gabe 2 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 9)
#336 jyms rescinds bikes
#344 wuf rescind gabe lynch eug (gabe 1 wuf 2 jyms 1 daven 2 eug 10)

[gabe]

I'm confused by this, why does being on a phone mean that you aren't aware of the rules? Surely if you're not paying proper attention and hence weren't aware of the rules then you wouldn't be trying to give "deep" advice to the village attempting to suggest the best action to be taken?

I had read through the rules a couple times and had understood them wrong. rong didn't word everything perfectly imo but its more my fault. being on phone makes it a hassle to flip back n forth between discussion an rules. I think the village should see this as irrelevant


rescind and lynch bikes. hard to argue with gator and I don't see much changing. I'm not going to make a case for anyone until tonight goes down

[Luco]

Ok it's bedtime.

I'm not seeing wufs case against daven. I went back to look and saw post after post of ong calling daven a wolf. Enough to keep me from voting him today.

lynch bikes

[wufwugy]

El presento el cuatro el wolfo
My Spanish is bummin' awesome

Bikes - This read is predicated on Gabe being a wolf, but still isn't fully confirmed if Gabe is a wolf. Bikes picked up some votes due to absence, and he tied with Jyms at the time that Ong hopped off Daven the first time in order to keep him below Jyms. The difference here is that if Gabe a wolf then Ong knows Bikes' wagon is inflated (since Gabe is on it) and it is smart strategy for wolves to get on inactive fellow wolf wagons because if that player shows up, the wagon will disappear but if he doesn't and he gets killed, they look super villagery.

Bikes finally shows up and Gabe later switches to Ong's Eug wagon. If Gabe, Daven, Bikes are wolves, this is the time that they needed to target a villager. Then Bikes jumps on Eug (so does Rilla and Luco), pushing him over the top

Day 2 comes around and Bikes follows along with the Aubrey wagon while adding "in gabe we trust". Is this a shot at me for what I said earlier about Bikes and Gabe or is Bikes trying to make Gabe look like he's good to keep around? I don't know because Bikes loves nothing more than being unexplainable. After I bold Gabe and Ong (the Ong who knows he's been looked up) follows, Bikes switches to Gabe and says he's good to kill just for the revival aspect. This is actually true, but it's also a super useful way of cutting away any Bikes and Gabe link.


Honestly this is kinda weak. It's circumstantial and each move can be explained for more than one reason. It's also quite unusual for wolves to be tied up like this. Unless, however, they took it upon themselves to attack each other, even marginally so. Then interconnectedness will appear


I'm super confident about Daven, pretty confident about Gabe, and iffy with Bikes.

I don't think there is much more I can add because it's too early in the game and some more roles need to be learned in order to find the latter wolves. I haven't dug deeply into several players and don't plan to. I've been just trying to stick with what makes the most sense based on what we know about Ong, but what often happens is that some of the wolf team isn't linked to the other, so at this juncture we could find that some villagers are more "linked" to Ong than the remaining wolves

[wufwugy]

Scratch that. It could be right, but it just can't be right

[gabe]

wuf yea it's super circumstantial.

on day 1 I wanted to lynch bikes because he cost the town some equity intentionally so he could gamble. I was surprised no one else agreed with my lynch as a form of retribution.

I'll lynch him now. also ong went out of his way to defend bikes with bad reasoning that I called out at the time. if you can believe I'm a villager then that whole theory is pointless. and the numbers say in likely a villager. also if I was a wolf, why would I so publicly sell myself out on a lynch I know would fail on day 1? you like selecting parts of the situation to support a narrative instead of looking at the whole picture

[gabe]

since the order of the night has the reviver coming after the wolf kill, could the reviver just revive whoever they eat tonight? maybe we could use that to fuck with these Feds

[Keith]

#52

Weird British humour.

Anyway I still have a random vote down. rescind

Someone do something wolfy.

#53

This is a first post.

didn't JV once make a comment about a post like this along the lines of casual wolf casually checking in
#54

nou
Lynch Ong

#55

basically ong and jyms are the only two who have sounded remotely wolf so far. But it's only been 54 posts, and dunno if either would be that sloppy so early in the game as wolves. Also, I'm always suspicious of JKDS...

#57

Are you kidding me? I can understand daven thinking splashing random votes around is wolfy, but you should know me better.

lynch wuf

#59

I read through the opening rule posts, vig rules are a little different this time which is something to keep in mind.

Encouraging wolfy behavior? Obvious wolf!

lynch Ong

so did hoopy also do the obvious wolf behaviour and vote for his co wolf to distance themselves . can see them laffing about this sequence in the wolf den. so Hoopy for one of the extra wolves ?

[Hoopy]

wuf's case on daven is good, keith making the effort to do a vote log is useful and gets him some villager points.

I'll try and do a vote count before voting going to bed, we have about 7hrs left at this point.

[Hoopy]

didn't JV once make a comment about a post like this along the lines of casual wolf casually checking in

I made that comment to JV at the start of a game a while back.

[wufwugy]

I'm definitely wrong about something. Possibly even the Daven read. The reason for that is that it could have been Ong flopping around. I read it again and noticed that Ong may not have seen JV's post and instead decided to plop off Daven to seem affable to Rilla. Oh well

It's gonna be really damn funny if this Ong lookup leads nowhere. I'm not joking when I say I think it's bad to find wolves in the early game. Because the village only wins when all are found, it should be set up so that when one falls, so do the rest. It's probably harder to get that with fewer wolves in the late game

[JKDS]

Keith essentially confirmed that wuf's theory regarding daven is at least plausible, and I think it sufficiently rips apart my daven-town argument.

[jyms]

How have we gone from that huge ass post by wuf on daven to people bolding bikes? I'm not ready to switch. Staying on wufs call

[Keith]

I'm very happy with a bikes v daven wagon. Maybe give me the bullet so I for sure shoot ong though. Wuf is gonna wuf with it lol.

second this although if wuf is likely to be shooting a different wolf the wolves may be forced to block vig and eat wuf to stop us getting info on that other wolf.

[gabe]

I think the seer should look up someone who likely won't be revived if try die