Drug smugglers and Feds gameplay thread

[jyms]

With only a few hours left and it being later Friday night I think the village is still very splintered. Hoping that makes day 3 easier after we find out about the night.

[wufwugy]

If Daven is a wolf, Luco is likely also a wolf. He and Ong did the buddy-buddy bolds at the beginning of the game, and I was so close to pointing it out at the time because it felt fake, but didn't because it's never incriminating at that time. Luco has also tied himself with Gabe in some interesting ways.

I'm not a fan of Luco's latest post saying Ong went after Daven a lot. He only did twice and pulled back from that a bunch. The problem I have with auto calling Luco a wolf here is that it prompted me to go back and I discovered that Ong was flopping around and may not have dumped the Daven bold because of JV. This makes it possible that Ong was just trying to look villagery because no wolves were under threat. I would think that somebody who doesn't like my Daven read would have a different reason than the one Luco gave

[wufwugy]

Well my plan was to lynch Ong and hopefully shoot Daven. But honestly, I don't care now. My brain is fried and I know I'm getting something super wrong. This game will still go down to the wire

[bikes]

i'm about to head out for the evening and won't probably be back until tomorrow afternoon. i'm not a fed/wolf/whateverhgdshalkgjhlas but i'm pretty sure this sun has set so....

when I get lynched these are my reads.

wufwugy is super try harding these games and probably not a fed given the super long winded posts about tl'dr could be summed up so much easier for much less reading.

jyms is doing nothing but constantly posting misdirection this game and probably should not live past mid game.

GATOR IS PLAYING THIS GAME?

i never know what level gabe is on, all i know is that every training video i've ever seen him in describes him as being one step ahead and i can confirm this after playing live with him in vegas. gabe is either super valuable to the village or super detrimental. he should def die by day 3 but not day 1 because no one can work magic on day 1 and it's a waste of a super valuable villager if you miss that 1/5 chance he's a wolf on day 1. if gabe is indeed a fed i would literally disregard every post he's made.

i dunno wtf daven is doing this game, he could easily be a wolf or a trying to appear like a wolfy villager like i do every game so i can make it to midgame- late game. which is a super op strat. farm information and wreck people late.

people say ong is a wolf and who am i to argue

nightgizmo is calling people out for posting no content yet posting little himself so use that info fwiw.

keith no idea

rilla is probably town but i cant be certain

pascal still mia

aubery is still new at this game so i cant tell if she's just confused in general but i think shes probably town a majority of the time as well.

no idea on imsavy either. no phone+ no internet sounds horrible if true.

no idea on anyone else i forgot either.

[bikes]

oh also these rules were super fkn confusing wth.

[bikes]

vig dont forget to shoot someone and use pascal as the shooter otherwise he's a wasted death with no benefit to the village and a 1/4.5 chance at a wolf is not bad at this point in the game.

[jyms]

I don't think that will work.

[Hoopy]

By my count.

bikes - 6

daven - 3

[jyms]

Other than bikes low post count I don't see much reason to think he's a fed. It's pretty standard posting by him so far.

[wufwugy]

basically ong and jyms are the only two who have sounded remotely wolf so far. But it's only been 54 posts, and dunno if either would be that sloppy so early in the game as wolves. Also, I'm always suspicious of JKDS...

1 minute later

i like ong vs jyms. ong bolding 3 people whimsically doesn't sit well

3 hours later he quoted me and posted this

really?
lynch wuf

I just can't for the life of me call him anything other than wolf because of this. Even if my case that Ong dumped the Daven wagon because it got too big was false.

Then he fucking asks me this

wuf, what are your thoughts on a Jyms vs Pascal wagon?

I mean, is this a joke?

[gabe]

rescind bikes lynch jyms

I just have a feeling and I want to be on the right side of things. the daven evidence seems just as circumstantial as wuf's evidence on me where I still like rilla's specific reads on jyms.

it's probably not that close either way so I could be swayed of we were planning in reviving tonight's lynch. I'll be keeping up with this thread until the day ends so I'm listening to any thoughts anyone has....

[jyms]

Ya gabe? You're better than that.

I'm staying on daven until I see a better plan.

[wufwugy]

lynch daven

If the vig sends me his bullet I will probably shoot Gabe. If Gabe is a villager, he can be revived

I guess you guys can wait to lynch Ong after you lynch the next villager. I mean, I thought we were going to kill him today, but people don't seem to want to. It's not particularly smart to let Ong hang out in the wolfchat, but whatever

[rong]

Pascal dies the very second day 2 ends.

I'm drunk and its like 2 am. Day ends at 8am my time, so 6 hrs and 4 mins or w/e. Any votes after that time will not be counted, but I won't be checking in for a few hours after that.

[jyms]

lynch daven

If the vig sends me his bullet I will probably shoot Gabe. If Gabe is a villager, he can be revived

I guess you guys can wait to lynch Ong after you lynch the next villager. I mean, I thought we were going to kill him today, but people don't seem to want to. It's not particularly smart to let Ong hang out in the wolfchat, but whatever

I said this. If he's helping noobs we are giving them so much advantage

[MadMojoMonkey]

Only 7 hours from end of day, and Rong hasn't said anything about Pascal. Did I mis-read the "ample warning" bit? I thought it meant that he would specifically post that xxx would be modkilled at the end of the night phase. But maybe he meant that in the rules it's stated that inactives will be modkilled at the end of day 2, so that's ample warning by itself... ?

rescind bikes

He either saved or hung himself with post #604.

[MadMojoMonkey]

lynch Pascal

[Hoopy]

If the vig sends me his bullet I will probably shoot Gabe. If Gabe is a villager, he can be revived

I guess you guys can wait to lynch Ong after you lynch the next villager. I mean, I thought we were going to kill him today, but people don't seem to want to. It's not particularly smart to let Ong hang out in the wolfchat, but whatever

We are getting rid of Ong today wuf, but if we lynched him then no new info comes to light and there's no vote trail to follow. The vig can just shoot him through you/JKDS tonight.

Unless you're worried he's gonna be helping the wolve during the night phase?

[wufwugy]

I think it's tied between Bikes and Daven

[gabe]

uhh ye don't give wuf the bullet...

there's no real evidence on me. the strong evidence for me being town is ignored and twisted into "gabe might do something that spazzy as a wolf!" that's not good enough. leading a super charged lynch on day 1 that is destined to fail would be a pretty bad move if I was a wolf. also I really did lose $100

I know you're saying we can just revive me but we should save that for you, since you are going to die and you're a special. reviving a none special like me will be a mistake

[wufwugy]

Let me be clear

If I get the bullet I'll be shooting Gabe. If he's a villager, he can be revived. If the vig doesn't want Gabe to die, don't send the bullet to me. Instead, send it to JKDS

[gabe]

pussy killer, if you give wuf the bullet then you don't know anything!!!! and I'll have to eliminate you the next game, unless I'm a wolf then I'll happily keep you around

[gabe]

wuf, you're being very clear and planning to revive a non special seems bogus. you are likely going to get eaten and we should revive you

[gabe]

I'm posting strategy that is +ev for the village. I know it looks like I'm trying to avoid a death (and what wuf says will be a temporary death), but that's not the most +ev thing for us to do

[wufwugy]

uhh ye don't give wuf the bullet...

there's no real evidence on me. the strong evidence for me being town is ignored and twisted into "gabe might do something that spazzy as a wolf!" that's not good enough. leading a super charged lynch on day 1 that is destined to fail would be a pretty bad move if I was a wolf. also I really did lose $100

I know you're saying we can just revive me but we should save that for you, since you are going to die and you're a special. reviving a none special like me will be a mistake

See a huge problem with this is that if you were a villager, you would say "yeah, go ahead, shoot and revive me"

But you're not saying that and you have gone out of your way to not say it many times. That basically means you're a wolf

[wufwugy]

Gabe sounds a whole lot more afraid of death than anything. It's not that big of a benefit to the village to revive me instead of him. In fact, I argue that it's overall better shoot him now and make his role known than to make sure that I can be revived

[Keith]

150 jyms bikes (jyms 5 : daven 3 bikes 3) why didnt jyms go daven???
164 jkds rescind jyms (jyms 4 : daven 3 bikes 3)
165NG rescind jyms lynch bikes (jyms 3 : daven 3 bikes 4)
184 ong rescind daven lynch eugmac (jyms 3 : daven 2 bikes 4:eug)
185 ng rescinds bikes lynch pascal (jyms 3 : daven 2 bikes 3:eug 1: pascal3)

looking back at the #150 jyms vote ......why did he go for bikes and not Daven. how about because jyms and daven are wolves together. haven't gone back to look at the conversational posts to see if any of these wolf suspects were pointing at bikes and playing down jyms/daven just looking at the effect of the votes at the moment. #164 and #165 result n bikes in the lead. ong then gets off daven to make another of the wolf suspects safer.Ong probably doesn't want to show up as the guy swinging the wagon towards bikes but does this make jyms wolfier than bikes by avoiding voting for daven at that critical time and putting pressure on bikes so tha wagon takes off. the wagons fizzle out after that

[gabe]

See a huge problem with this is that if you were a villager, you would say "yeah, go ahead, shoot and revive me"

But you're not saying that and you have gone out of your way to not say it many times. That basically means you're a wolf

^fish logic

I'm saying it +ev for village to revive a special and not a vanilla villager. I'm right. this is further proof I am a villager, because I'm advocating the village always take the most +ev moves. you are just off on a wild hare

[wufwugy]

All right guys, here's what I like

Daven should be lynched today. There are several different lines that work against him, so one can be wrong while another is right. At this point, he's a better lynch than Bikes. Also, notice how Bikes got up to 6 votes today while Daven only had 3.

Then I'd like the vig to send me his bullet so I can shoot Gabe. I will do this regardless of the Daven outcome. That's because there's a host of unrelated reasons why Gabe can be wolf without Daven (but also with Daven). Gabe's relation to wolfdom is more about the sort of stuff I said on previous days, the really big factor in Ong bolding him (which I truly do think is because he's a wolf), and the fact that Gabe has been super afraid of being shot or even lynched in order to be revived

If they both turn out to be wolves, tomorrow's lynch should be Luco and nobody else. If either is a wolf, it can still be Luco, and even if only Ong is the wolf, it could still be Luco, but obviously the case gets weaker with the fewer connections

It's been fun. I'll probably be back before the day's out, but it's been fun

[wufwugy]

^fish logic

I'm saying it +ev for village to revive a special and not a vanilla villager. I'm right. this is further proof I am a villager, because I'm advocating the village always take the most +ev moves. you are just off on a wild hare

But it's not better to revive a special than you, and if it is, it's only marginally so. Furthermore, knowing your role by shooting you has huge value that makes it BETTER to kill you than to wait to revive me.

And you're not doing what's +ev for the village. Where were you yesterday? Where was this +ev during the terrible Eug lynch, for which you had no evidence but great conviction

You're a wolf here so often

[GatorJH]

yadda yadda yadda.....GATOR IS PLAYING THIS GAME?

Yes I am and outside of yesterday/last night have been as active as I always am in early games. I am not as good as Rilla/Gabe/JV, etc. in finding wolves based on early game nuances so I tend to hang back, however I think I am pretty good at putting the pieces of the puzzle together once a wolf or two are found. In this case, as I already said I would be surprised to find Daven is a Fed but would not be surprised to find one of Savy or Luco as a Fed.

[gabe]

But it's not better to revive a special than you, and if it is, it's only marginally so. Furthermore, knowing your role by shooting you has huge value that makes it BETTER to kill you than to wait to revive me.

And you're not doing what's +ev for the village. Where were you yesterday? Where was this +ev during the terrible Eug lynch, for which you had no evidence but great conviction

You're a wolf here so often

you are dead wrong about day 1. day 1 offers almost nothing to analyze. it's very very hard to hit a wolf on day 1 using day 1 evidence. it's so hard to spot a wolf on day 1 that I would say it's practically impossible to have a terrible lynch. but here you are saying it

furthermore, not even counting my eugmac inclination, I know that lynching someone I suggest is +ev compared to 'the field' because I know I am villager. I can't be sure if the people leading the day 1 discussion are wolves or not, but I know my
pick is coming from a villager

[Keith]

pascal hasn't been active at any time in the game and as its nearly 4am here and deadline is 4 hours chances are he aint coming. i think with all the info we get from a daven death it outweighs a modkill of pascal since reviver is a limited time deal and it helps confirm/ disprove wufs theory and the helps influence vigs actions tonight.

lynch daven

[GatorJH]

Lynching Gabe so he can get revived is so bad of an idea it isn't funny. Whoever gets revived is most likely going to get nommed the next night which loses Gabe for end game and that is just shortsighted thinking.

[daven]

vig has to shoot ong tonight, he's confirmed wolf, and there is a one in four chance that he's the wolf with the block power. If we kill that power then we get a seer lookup tonight (either we get it tomorrow if wuf lives, or the next day if he has to be revived) that is going to be heaps useful.
today's lynch is complicated. bikes looks dodgy because he hasn't read the thread properly, e.g.

vig dont forget to shoot someone and use pascal as the shooter otherwise he's a wasted death with no benefit to the village and a 1/4.5 chance at a wolf is not bad at this point in the game.

this makes no sense. We shoot ong and get a guaranteed wolf kill. Pascal dies at end of day, immediately as per rong's post, so if he hasn't turned up then he won't be able to fire the shot.

his big 'reads if i die' post doesn't actually supply much info. I mean wuf probably not fed isn't cos of hte longwinded posts, it's cos of his special out.
jyms comment is simply an observation that most everyone has already made
gator isn't posting much, lfdo
gabe is hard to read, lfdo
etc...

i'm about to head out for the evening and won't probably be back until tomorrow afternoon. i'm not a fed/wolf/whateverhgdshalkgjhlas but i'm pretty sure this sun has set so....

when I get lynched these are my reads.

wufwugy is super try harding these games and probably not a fed given the super long winded posts about tl'dr could be summed up so much easier for much less reading.

jyms is doing nothing but constantly posting misdirection this game and probably should not live past mid game.

GATOR IS PLAYING THIS GAME?

i never know what level gabe is on, all i know is that every training video i've ever seen him in describes him as being one step ahead and i can confirm this after playing live with him in vegas. gabe is either super valuable to the village or super detrimental. he should def die by day 3 but not day 1 because no one can work magic on day 1 and it's a waste of a super valuable villager if you miss that 1/5 chance he's a wolf on day 1. if gabe is indeed a fed i would literally disregard every post he's made.

i dunno wtf daven is doing this game, he could easily be a wolf or a trying to appear like a wolfy villager like i do every game so i can make it to midgame- late game. which is a super op strat. farm information and wreck people late.

people say ong is a wolf and who am i to argue

nightgizmo is calling people out for posting no content yet posting little himself so use that info fwiw.

keith no idea

rilla is probably town but i cant be certain

pascal still mia

aubery is still new at this game so i cant tell if she's just confused in general but i think shes probably town a majority of the time as well.

no idea on imsavy either. no phone+ no internet sounds horrible if true.

no idea on anyone else i forgot either.

unfortunately that isn't enough to make bikes lock wolf

more coming

[Keith]

seer could look up gabe, wuf gets the result before he shoots and before he dies so can use the answer to influence his shot.

[Keith]

also @daven........who says that the role block is allocated to a wolf and that if that wolf dies they lose the power? the original description doesn't say that , it just says that the wolves have one shot power to see lookup resuly and to role block .Did you just reveal info that only the wolves are privy too?

[Hoopy]

It's 3am but werewolf does not respect timezones.

The wolves role block is annoying. If it wasn't available the seer could get another lookup by having the reviver revive wuf on night 3 which then means he could tell us who the seer had looked up on night 2 (tonight).

What we can still do is have the reviver revive wuf on night 3, which then means the wolves have to kill wuf again on night 4 to prevent a lookup, wasting a kill.

Worst case they get the seer on night 3, but then we still have JKDS alive and a revived confirmed villager.

Getting one more lookup would be huge, might even lock the game up.

[wufwugy]

seer could look up gabe, wuf gets the result before he shoots and before he dies so can use the answer to influence his shot.

Doesn't work like that

[GatorJH]

also @daven........who says that the role block is allocated to a wolf and that if that wolf dies they lose the power? the original description doesn't say that , it just says that the wolves have one shot power to see lookup resuly and to role block .Did you just reveal info that only the wolves are privy too?

Now THAT is a good catch imo and could definitely be a panic type mistake.

[wufwugy]

also @daven........who says that the role block is allocated to a wolf and that if that wolf dies they lose the power?

could be

also hoopy i lose seer power if i die

[GatorJH]

Doesn't work like that

Order of operations: Seer, receiver, Angel, Vig, Wolf kill, Reviver.

It looks like that to me? I would think you would get two PM's from Rong, One letting you know who the Seer looked up and one telling you the Vig wants you to shoot someone. Why can't you wait till both come in before firing a shot?

[wufwugy]

It looks like that to me? I would think you would get two PM's from Rong, One letting you know who the Seer looked up and one telling you the Vig wants you to shoot someone. Why can't you wait till both come in before firing a shot?

huh i guess that does actually work

but even then, id rather the seer doesnt look up gabe because he's defo a wolf and im shooting him. dude is scared of death of being targeted. plus ong bolded him because he's wolf

[Keith]

Order of operations: Seer, receiver, Angel, Vig, Wolf kill, Reviver.

only action receiver can do is receive the lookup info and that comes before vig and wolves act.

WRT daven....if role is allocated to a wolf why is he so desperate that ong dies instead of himself. could be that daven is the role blocker. making a daven death huge as we definately get a lookup result for wuf to act on.

[MadMojoMonkey]

but even then, id rather the seer doesnt look up gabe because he's defo a wolf and im shooting him.

reckless bravado

[Keith]

actually lookup Hoopy if he is wolf shoot hoopy ...if not shoot gabe and we find out two roles

[Hoopy]

could be

also hoopy i lose seer power if i die

Gah, that's annoying.

[MadMojoMonkey]

only action receiver can do is receive the lookup info and that comes before vig and wolves act.

I don't see anything in the rules that says the receiver can't be chosen by the pussy killer and perform both roles in one night.

[Keith]

then we can revive gabe if he turns out to be village since we know hoopy lookup result by whether he dies or not.

[wufwugy]

It looks like that to me? I would think you would get two PM's from Rong, One letting you know who the Seer looked up and one telling you the Vig wants you to shoot someone. Why can't you wait till both come in before firing a shot?

Actually I doubt this will work because it's order of acts after information is all in. It wouldn't be fair to the wolves to tell me the result of the seer before the result of the vig is selected

[Hoopy]

It looks like that to me? I would think you would get two PM's from Rong, One letting you know who the Seer looked up and one telling you the Vig wants you to shoot someone. Why can't you wait till both come in before firing a shot?

The problem with this is the wolves still have the one shot role block. If we decide to try then above then the wolves will just block the seer.

[wufwugy]

only action receiver can do is receive the lookup info and that comes before vig and wolves act.

WRT daven....if role is allocated to a wolf why is he so desperate that ong dies instead of himself. could be that daven is the role blocker. making a daven death huge as we definately get a lookup result for wuf to act on.

yeah daven's gotta go

[Keith]

I don't see anything in the rules that says the receiver can't be chosen by the pussy killer and perform both roles in one night.

i meant the only action receiver can do as receiver is to receive the lookup info and that happens before all other actions happen and that wuf can then act as vigs nominated killer using that lookup info and can use that to inform the village of two peoples roles with gabe being able to be revived if he is village.

[daven]

also @daven........who says that the role block is allocated to a wolf and that if that wolf dies they lose the power? the original description doesn't say that , it just says that the wolves have one shot power to see lookup resuly and to role block .Did you just reveal info that only the wolves are privy too?

last game the special wolf roles were allocated to specific players e.g. crooked cop was the role blocker etc
i just assumed it was the same this time around

[Hoopy]

lynch daven

[daven]

WRT daven....if role is allocated to a wolf why is he so desperate that ong dies instead of himself. could be that daven is the role blocker. making a daven death huge as we definately get a lookup result for wuf to act on.

cos i'm a villager, pretty simple

[daven]

rong posted this

Pascal dies the very second day 2 ends.

I'm drunk and its like 2 am. Day ends at 8am my time, so 6 hrs and 4 mins or w/e. Any votes after that time will not be counted, but I won't be checking in for a few hours after that.

and then 10minutes later mmm posted this. To me this looks like a post that mmm had posted in the den for approval, and then he simply posted it without checking thread once he got the wolf ok...

Only 7 hours from end of day, and Rong hasn't said anything about Pascal. Did I mis-read the "ample warning" bit? I thought it meant that he would specifically post that xxx would be modkilled at the end of the night phase. But maybe he meant that in the rules it's stated that inactives will be modkilled at the end of day 2, so that's ample warning by itself... ?

rescind bikes

He either saved or hung himself with post #604.

[Keith]

wuf.... seer has to send in lookup hoopy very early so that rong can send you the result, then rong will send you an email saying thathe vig has selected you to kill somone and then you send the kill in.vig can't act until you have received the info.

[wufwugy]

wuf.... seer has to send in lookup hoopy very early so that rong can send you the result, then rong will send you an email saying thathe vig has selected you to kill somone and then you send the kill in.vig can't act until you have received the info.

Super doubt that Rong will send it like that. He will probably wait till everything is in and send everything at once. Not all mods send night info as they learn it, some wait until the very end, which is what they all should do IMO

[daven]

given that you'll have to do it tomorrow if i get lynched, i suggest y'all do a readthrough now based on the following assumptions:

1 - JKDS is villager
2 - Wuf is villager
3 - Ong is wolf
4 - I'm a villager

[daven]

With only a few hours left and it being later Friday night I think the village is still very splintered. Hoping that makes day 3 easier after we find out about the night.

i don't know what this post means
a few hours left and the village is mostly on two wagons, and we have identified a wolf and are debating who should get the bullet and who should get shot
splintered?

[Keith]

you could always pm rong and ask him and send in conditional kill email.....i.e if i received info that hoopy is wolf shoot hoopy else shoot gabe. rong caused himself this problem by making that the order of operations if he didn't want vig to use lookup result he would have made reseiver act last. there is no other reason for reason to act straight after the angel and before vig and wolves

[Keith]

or if rong won't let you shoot after knowing the result shoot jyms instead of gabe/hoopy . then we know we have to revive you to get the answer....or that the seer got role blocked

[daven]

I'm very happy with a bikes v daven wagon. Maybe give me the bullet so I for sure shoot ong though. Wuf is gonna wuf with it lol.

^ this basically

[wufwugy]

I think the wolves absolutely hate the fact that I'm going to shoot Gabe

[daven]

my defence = ong went after me pretty hard on day 1. And i'm a villager. And i'm looking for wolves. Not much more to say.
Wuf, i understand why you think i'm a wolf. But you're wrong. Just remember not to let blinkers get in the road of the village winning this game

[daven]

I think the wolves absolutely hate the fact that I'm going to shoot Gabe

thoughts on lynch ong/shoot gabe then?
we want to at least get one wolf
and if we get two, then that's gravy

[jyms]

If we lunch Daven and the vig gives the shot to jkds to shoot Ong how do we lose in that situation? They can't role block everything and we get a lookup and a revival of a confirmed villager. We are losing pascal already, should we not minimize damage and get as much clarity as possible?

[jyms]

I don't like wufs idea of getting the shot on gabe just to confirm he's town. Then we lose him before mid game.

[GatorJH]

The problem with this is the wolves still have the one shot role block. If we decide to try then above then the wolves will just block the seer.

Good point.

Also, Daven is definitely looking more and more like a panicking wolf so since I am about to head out for the evening and won't be back before the day ends I will go with a lynch daven.

[GatorJH]

I don't like wufs idea of getting the shot on gabe just to confirm he's town. Then we lose him before mid game.

That's exactly why I said it was an epically bad idea.

[wufwugy]

Gabe gonna have to die one way or another. The last reason I want to shoot him is the revive dynamic.

[gabe]

no wuf you are out of your mind. with the evidence in this thread, someone like gator or rilla is more likely fed than me

a fed wouldn't be doing any of the stuff I'm doing. why do you think a fed would make a big spectacle on day 1? I think you think what I did was wolfy ony because it would be so sick if I actually did that. but that's not what happened, I'm just a villager trying to steer the village

luckily I have faith in the pussy killer not being a complete newb. unless of course the seer can let u know my role before U shoot, then id be fine having you with the bullet. and if the seer looks up someone besides me, maybe I'm the seer!!

[gabe]

using revive on a regular player is not as good as using it on someone with powers. you are the only person who thinks otherwise

[MadMojoMonkey]

- The reviver. On any one night, this player will pick a dead villager to bring back to life. (Any special powers will be lost.) This is a one shot power. It must be used no later than night 3.

killing/reviving a villager with powers just seems to remove the powers