kings flatted pre to induce, but... postflop?

[daven]

PFR is some 25-12 weak player with about 70% fold to 3b and 10% 4b. 37% flop cbet, 60% turn cbet. SB is an aggro 14-12-6 type who likes to squeeze, bb is an unknown who started with about 50bb and who is like 38-11 plus has squeezed once already (won without showdown) in 20 hands.
Preflop I choose to flat, flop and turn both feel like interesting spots, what's my play?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

UTG+1 ($39.21)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($25.05)
MP3 ($62.16)
CO ($18.91)
Hero (Button) ($52.02)
SB ($28.08)
BB ($13.45)
UTG ($25.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35) 5, 2, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1.50

Turn: ($6.85) 6 (3 players)
BB bets $11.20 (All-In), MP1 calls $11.20, Hero raises to $49.77 (All-In),

[surviva316]

I'm willing to bet the PFR's high F23b is mostly a product of him flatting another player's open and then folding to a squeeze. As such, I'd rather just 3b him for value than try and trap a 14-12-6.

As played, raise flop. If villain has 99-QQ, then he's gonna feel coolered. No sense in letting ugly turns ruin the party.

As played, BB can have all sorts of hilarious stuff and I can't see MP folding 99, so yeah, just shove.

[Icanhastreebet]

37% flop cbet, 60% turn cbet. I don't think we need to worry about flatting to protect our cold call range v someone who is going to let us get to showdown so often for free.

[spoonitnow]

I definitely 3-bet pre-flop. There's much more value in 3-betting against the PFR than trying to trap the other guy.

[pjhpmc]

Greetings

Preflop I'm going to raise to 1.75, hoping the small raise looks very weak to induce action. KK has value here and even though SB and BB are OOP I want to give them a chance to squeeze on me. If I get reraised by anyone I'm ready to go to war preflop and get everything in, even against the 14/12/6 with a 5b range of AA-QQ.

OTF: I'm raising to $3. It protects our hand against potential flush draws and is just enough to let premium hands continue. Trash hands or hands with gutter balls should be folding here. Ideally if MP1 is playing around, then a 3b on the flop should (70% of the time) make him go away leaving us heads up with the BB. I'm still comfortable getting the money in here.

OTR: I really can't see folding to the river bets, but I'm not sure exactly how often we are good here. It's true there is a lot of junk hands that are probably pushing here such as A8 and flush draws, but trips and two pairs like 56 are certainly in play as well. I'm at work so I don't have a chance to equilab the ranges but in a cash game like this I'm probably betting enough to get MP1's stack in on the turn once he calls BB's shove.

[bikes]

raise flop for sure as played. for sure fo sho fo sho

[bikes]

turn is a gross misplay just muck happily

[kickass]

^ this. Like im ever playing well enough to make this play.

[ST3]

I think there's way more value 3betting pre than there is trying to induce a squeeze, you're also going to get into tricky spots multi way when the BB completes a tonne.

As played, raise flop but fold turn your rarely good on such a wet board multi way with an over caller.

[surviva316]

turn is a gross misplay just muck happily

I pretty strongly disagree with this. 38/11 after 20 hands with no other reads doesn't seem like nearly enough to think he's super passive, and even if the type who donk overshoves 77/T8s/etc here is less than half the player population for someone running these stats over this sample, there are so many hands that type of player could be doing this with that I think the probability outweighs the chances that this player is a super passive who has one of the 11-15 combos they might do this with.

And I assume we're not worried about MP. He only needs to call 99-QQ 25% of the time for us to be flipping against him.

[pjhpmc]

turn is a gross misplay just muck happily

I'd love to hear your reasons.

The way I see it, we've grossly underrepped our hand. We haven't shown any strength at any point so far and our range is very wide. We could have anything from two overcards, a flush draw, a flush draw with an 8, numerous straight draws, and various middle/two pair hands. We haven't done anything to narrow our ranges at all.

After thinking about it, the bet on the turn tells me he's scared and doesn't want to get drawn out on, indicating a weak hand. Strong/made hands would bet nominal amounts, hoping to get someone to put him all in with a good hand or at the very least extract more value on this street and setup a shove on the river. With an appropriate bet sizing, it's unlikely that most flush draws would continue though the Ad8d hands would probably keep going. To me this ended up looking like AA-TT that didn't want any flushes or straights to arrive on the river.

[Micro2Macro]

failure to 3bet this 100% vs this player is the mistake

[griffey24]

Based on this hand and your AA hand, you're flatting big pairs way too much pre. You're losing so much value by 1. Not building a pot 2. Letting hands go multi-way with big pairs that don't want to go multi-way.

3b pre.
raise flop.

As played, I think it's fine.

[Carroters]

Agree with the above posts. Gotta 3bet and defo can't fold for this price when there are a reasonable amount of situational combos where we crush both players.

[WeldPhaser]

Agree with the above posts. Gotta 3bet and defo can't fold for this price when there are a reasonable amount of situational combos where we crush both players.

OK, so basically we should never flat KK+? Serious question too. I just think from time to time(1%) it's good to flat. it can really screw with a villains head when we showdown.

IN davens denfense. If he is still putting in the kind of volume he was in the winter. Then i wouldn't even say he's making a huge mistake. idk, maybe i'm wrong. HIs post flop strength helps a bit though right?

I think vs. the 38-11 who has won 20 hands without showdown we're in good shape on the turn, and since we're in stealth mode mp1 can have a ton of middling pairs he called the shove with.

[daven]

Based on this hand and your AA hand, you're flatting big pairs way too much pre. You're losing so much value by 1. Not building a pot 2. Letting hands go multi-way with big pairs that don't want to go multi-way.

3b pre.
raise flop.

As played, I think it's fine.

i don't actually flat big pairs very often, but when i do they stand out during session review. I think that 'not very often' might still be too often though, I overestimate the likelihood of villains squeezing when they're just not that into it, cheers

[griffey24]

Yah if you're looking for exceptions, then I'd imagine its better that your exception is 3betting a hand you don't normally 3b, while always 3b big pairs, as opposed to the exception being finding spots to NOT 3b the big pair.

[surviva316]

OK, so basically we should never flat KK+? Serious question too. I just think from time to time(1%) it's good to flat. it can really screw with a villains head when we showdown.

There are certainly situations where it's good to have KK+ in your flatting range at least some percent of the time. Consider, though, that:

1) The PFR is a bad player. These means A) We get so much value from 3b'ing him, and B) he's probably not thinking intelligently enough about our range for range deception to really matter at all.

2) The reason that daven gave for flatting centered around someone who was left to act who plays 14% of hands. The logic of that should be very obviously problematic. If it's close between flatting and 3b'ing for value, then the fact that the 14-12-6 left to act can squeeze light might be a tiebreaker (eg: opener is a nit who only continues with premiums), but in most situations, that factor's just gonna be a laughable rounding error.