Reasonable flop raise, or spew?

[BorisTheSpider]

A zoom hand:

Villain is fishy looking, although the sample is so small (11 hands) that the percentages (36/18) might not have started to converge. He's also sitting short, but only a little - might be a competent(ish) player with auto-rebuy set a little lower than 100bb or something.

Hero (Button) ($28.45)
SB ($108.30)
BB ($33)
UTG ($29.52)
MP ($22.58)
CO ($17.22)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, J
1 fold, MP bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) Q, 6, 5 (2 players)
MP bets $1.25, Hero raises to $3.25


Here's my logic to raise this flop:

Villains preflop range: [22+, A2s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QTs+, QJo, JTs] (I'm going to assume, given the initial factors tending towards a fishy appearance, that he's opening around 18% from any position and is not positionally aware to a large extent).

This hits this flop for an overpair to second pair or better 43% of the time [55+, AQs, AQo, KQs, KQo, QTs+, QJo]

Assuming he bets 99+ for value and all his queens, and that he also cbets half of his air, he'd be betting 37% of the time for value, and 31.5% of the time as a bluff, so about 70% overall.

However much of his value range is weak - [JJ-99, QTs, QJs, QJo] which is over a third of his value range, or 16% of his flop range overall, so with 31.5% bluffs, he's folding to a raise about 50% of the time.

That alone makes my bet slightly unprofitable, but we do have an overcard and most of his queens aren't AxQx especially since we block Ax.

So I think it's a debatable flop to raise, but it's probably spew given my read on him as fishy - if he's calling with all his queens, then raising is dumb.

So, even if in this case it wasn't a good play (although the read is very preliminary), if we were against someone who's not stationing us down with QTs, does it seem a good flop to raise as a bluff? If so, I am going to presume that against a "better" opponent, if we do bluff the flop we're also going to barrel more due to the mid connected cards on the flop?

In the hand as played, if he calls, are we barreling any turns if checked to? If so, what turns?

[OngBonga]

I like this, although I'd make it lower, we can bluff cheaper here and still get as many folds imo. $2.90 I like.

[daven]

you wouldn't raise this flop with 55
float ain't bad here