[5NL] AKo...3bet pot river decision

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 23/15/5 over 120 hands. FT3B 50%, 4/8.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): $5.00
BB: $5.07
UTG: $9.86
MP: $6.40
CO: $11.52
BTN: $5.99

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K A

fold, MP raises to $0.15, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.52, fold, MP calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.09, 2 players) J 7 2
Hero bets $0.65, MP calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.39, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($2.39, 2 players) A
Hero checks, MP bets $1.55, Hero ???

Thoughts on betting/stacking off on turn? Not sure I like it but felt it was close between bet or check.

[BorisTheSpider]

Flop is too small. $0.75 to $0.80.

Turn is fine - I check too, it's a terrible barreling card and not much is folding if we bet. If he bets it depends how big he makes it because if he bets big there won't be enough behind to have much fold equity if you jam, so if he bets turn big I fold but if he bets any smaller about $1.60 I jam. We can really easily rep JJJ/QQQ/AsKs check-jamming turn given preflop, although I'd like it even more if we'd made flop $0.80.

River I think is a fold. All his reasonably possible worse aces beat you now and I suspect he's woken up on the river and can now beat any one-pair hand. I dunno, it's by no means certain after turn action, depends if you think he calls flop with bare overs then just checks back turn which is unlikely, the best you can probably hope for is to chop so I fold.

[abelardx]

I like how you played it and I would call the river.

Betting the turn is bad imo because it's a long-shot semi-bluff. Your hand does have some showdown value and betting the turn throws that away by turning it into a bluff.

OTOH, if for some reason the pot was huge already, and there was like one psb left in the effective stack, and the turn was an offsuit Q, then I like shoving the turn because: 1, you'd get to see the turn and river to hit ten outs against top pair, and 2, you would have some fold equity in that case because it's a commitment decision and it looks super strong, ie he might fold some pocket pair or draw hands he'd normally keep calling with.

I'd call the river because it's hard to give people too much credit at the micros where people do a lot of crazy stuff. Yes, a lot of draws and two pairs got there and you are often beat. But at 5NL I'm always happy spending two bets on AK tptk to get to showdown. It's a hand that's worth two bets. You only have to be better less than 1/3 of the time to break even and I think you are definitely good at least that often. It's doubtful you're a favorite at this point because it's a good sized bet on a scary board, and I think folding is also a reasonable choice, but I still think a call is going to be at least marginally +ev.

[abelardx]

IDK calling the river could be really bad too. Not sure. But if I called and was wrong I wouldn't feel too bad about it.