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 Originally Posted by abelardx
Why?
Sorry, that was a rude way of saying that I think you're thinking like a fish.
Your math is fine, but you're really trying to justify making an extremely thin value play against what OP has described as an unknown. This is, in general, quite bad play.
Why do you want to play for stacks with a thin edge based on a speculative read?
Poker is about patience as much as anything. If you don't have a strong read, it is generally best to avoid thin value situations. This is because your estimation of the value is backed up only by a rough guess, and you could be V-towning yourself if your guess is off by a little bit. Better to fold now, pay attention to what Villain is doing while pulling in all the fat value you can. Once you've established a read on someone, then the ranges you assign them are much less guesswork and more grounded in observation. THIS is the time to start seeking out thin value against that Villain.
In general, the micros are about finding fat value and being aggressive in those spots. There's little reason to lose a stack on a 55/45 flip when the same Villain might offer you their stack in the next 15 minutes on a 70/30 or more. If your read says that this Villain is very good and unlikely to stack off when he's so dominated by your range, then you have an argument to start pushing those flips. But, let's be real, you're not facing Phil Ivey at the micros, and fat value is everywhere.
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