Massive station considers folding bad turn

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is 19/11, 3.6% 3bet, only 64 hands but shaping up to be somewhat nitty, VPIP-PFR gap is probably setmining rather than general passivity.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $25 (100 bb)
SB: $38.65 (154.6 bb)
BB: $17.27 (69.1 bb)
UTG: $25.88 (103.5 bb)
MP: $28.60 (114.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $65.87 (263.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A Q
UTG raises to $0.75, MP folds, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.85) A 6 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.25) J (2 players)
UTG bets $2.70

Hero???

[Carroters]

I like a fold pre, or maybe a 3-bet bluff w/ blockers if he's nitty to 3-bets. Don't like a call.

[griffey24]

There are enough conceivable draws out there that I'm seeing a river. If a player is sooo nitty that I'm not comfortable getting to a river here then I'm probably just folding pre.

[BorisTheSpider]

Yeah, I agree with Carroters (whose pickle incidentally, is also the only one with arms) to an extent - if he was like 12/10 over a couple of hundred hands, I'd likely fold pre, but I didn't feel he was _that_ nitty, or at least I didn't have enough of a sample yet to conclude that, but whatever - he's still likely got a strong range utg, so I don't like 3betting against what seems likely to be a fairly unfoldable range, but I can certainly see folding.

As played, anyone like raising turn planning to shove diamond or Q rivers?

[BorisTheSpider]

There are enough conceivable draws out there that I'm seeing a river. If a player is sooo nitty that I'm not comfortable getting to a river here then I'm probably just folding pre.

I'd feel like such a station. I guess maybe this isn't a bad spot for being one though. What rivers are you folding to a reasonable bet?

[abelardx]

Agree about preflop. As played I'd call and see what he does on the river. If small again I'd call again.

However, it is reasonable to fold here because: You called the cbet on the A high flop indicating you could very well have an ace. But he's still betting so if he's a thinking player he should have an ace here and of course the J counterfeits one of the aces you beat.

However folding here definitely reveals preflop as a mistake because you got a good flop for your hand and still aren't happy. If you think preflop is OK then call here and call reasonable bets on safe rivers. Personally I think either way is fine but of course folding preflop or here ott is easier to play which is worth something.

PS I don't think calling here is stationy at all. It's really the only play besides folding. I would not raise here because I doubt you fold better hands and he would be pot committed on the river.

[BorisTheSpider]

However folding here definitely reveals preflop as a mistake because you got a good flop for your hand and still aren't happy.

Not too worried on the flop, it's more that the turn sucks so bad for me - if we've both got an ace, I was either behind AK, ahead of AJ which is now ahead, or chopping with AQ which a nit might not bet this turn with anyway.

I didn't really think of it as a drawy board at the time, but now Griffey points it out, a few draws are certainly possible.

Since Ad is blocked, I'm still not sure whether there's a case for raising turn to jam diamond rivers.

[griffey24]

Raising the turn with AQ doesn't make much sense. What better are you hoping will fold? Maybe it works as a bluff vs AK, but that's about it.

[BorisTheSpider]

Raising the turn with AQ doesn't make much sense. What better are you hoping will fold? Maybe it works as a bluff vs AK, but that's about it.

Well I was thinking AK can fold (and he has quite a lot of AK) and we can get value from draws that don't make it. As a bluff though, I suppose it's too rare that we get the chance to jam the river (diamonds) and it sucks if we bloat the pot and don't get a diamond river.