Worst best river in the deck

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is TABTA, 16/8 over 40.

Interested in opinions on all streets, but river especially.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $68.34 (273.4 bb)
SB: $30.31 (121.2 bb)
BB: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
Hero (UTG): $35.89 (143.6 bb)
MP: $19.71 (78.8 bb)
CO: $13.35 (53.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 5 6 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BTN raises to $3.90, Hero calls $2.40

Turn: ($9.65) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.60, Hero calls $4.60

River: ($18.85) Q (2 players)

Hero???

[Carroters]

Fold flop. Fold turn. As played if his range is something like [55 66 77 87s and couple of flushes] then I guess we should just lead since he'll be checking back all the worse shit on this card being a nit.

I'd expect him to hardly ever play a fd this way anyways, defo think his range is weighted considerably to sets and 89s here. let's b/f like 7 vs this range. If the 18/8 raises the river lead we're almost certainly crushed.

[The Bean Counter]

Meh, just fold flop against this guy. We're doing pretty shitty against the range this dude is raising the flop with i.e. sets, 89s, AXdd. I doubt he's doing this with 88 and certainly not 44 so I think we can find a fold, even though it makes hero feel nitty and dirty

River is interesting as played. I'd expect this guy to check back everything we now beat given we look like a flush draw, so donk/folding is the line I'd take. Maybe $6?

[BorisTheSpider]

I'd expect him to hardly ever play a fd this way anyways

Why, because 16/8 ???

[Carroters]

Why, because 16/8 ???

Yup. I mean a 16/8 could raise nfds here but for him to bet this OMG straight turn instead of taking a free one seems real unlikely.

[BorisTheSpider]

Meh, just fold flop against this guy. We're doing pretty shitty against the range this dude is raising the flop with i.e. sets, 89s, AXdd. I doubt he's doing this with 88 and certainly not 44 so I think we can find a fold, even though it makes hero feel nitty and dirty

Yeah, think I was WAY too quick to assign him a wide range for raising flop, perhaps I need to re-evaluate what I think a nit will semibluff here.

River is interesting as played. I'd expect this guy to check back everything we now beat given we look like a flush draw, so donk/folding is the line I'd take. Maybe $6?

Yeah, not sure if I can ever see how we can b/f though given how much we look like a flush.

I guess we should b/f since he can't really fold a set to a small bet.

[BorisTheSpider]

Just to add, I'm going to have to re-read this thread until I get it, because this hand makes my head explode.

[Carroters]

Yeah, not sure if I can ever see how we can b/f though given how much we look like a flush.

I guess we should b/f since he can't really fold a set to a small bet.

If we look like a flush this is a great reason to b/f as worse hands never ever shove on us. Just make it small enough so he doesn't nit fold his 9 combos of sets.

[BorisTheSpider]

If we look like a flush this is a great reason to b/f as worse hands never ever shove on us. Just make it small enough so he doesn't nit fold his 9 combos of sets.

Given what you've said about him taking a free one OTT with his FDs, any merit in turning it into a bluff OTR?

[Carroters]

Given what you've said about him taking a free one OTT with his FDs, any merit in turning it into a bluff OTR?

Vs what 3 combos 87s exactly that he might not even have pre flop? Seems really really spewy as we don't even know if he folds these. Defo hate turning top set into a bluff here.

[griffey24]

Given what you've said about him taking a free one OTT with his FDs, any merit in turning it into a bluff OTR?

I think given some of your posts you may be trying to run bluffs in some pretty bad spots. In order for it to be a good bluff you have to get BETTER HANDS to fold. What better hands are you expecting to fold here?

If 56, 67, 55,66,77 fold then this is not a bluff. Only if 89 folds it's a bluff and I don't even think that will fold.

[BorisTheSpider]

Yeah like Carroters said, I guess he has so little better that he can fold. 87s and 44, but that's it. I didn't actually try and run a bluff here, it's just after the hand I was thinking about it because if like carroters said he hardly ever plays an FD this way, then otr he has smaller sets that don't often pay off a value bet on this runout, or straights that he might nit-fold. The issue was, I hadn't really thought through how few combos of straights he could actually have.

[griffey24]

After this particular run out I think a lot of ppl will find a check with sets on the river. There's not many worse hands that will call a set once that river comes out.