[10NL] 44...BU vs BB...Shove river?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain's very first hand at table.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $10.15 (VPIP: 18.92, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 37)
CO: $18.88 (VPIP: 23.44, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 65)
Hero (BTN): $16.52
SB: $11.18 (VPIP: 24.44, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.50, Hands: 91)
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.00 (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 34.62, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 27)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 4 4

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.25, fold, BB raises to $1.00, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.05, 2 players) 9 3 8
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.05, 2 players) 4
BB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

River: ($5.05, 2 players) A
BB bets $3.60, Hero shoves for fat fucking value?

[OngBonga]

I think we should be folding to the 3bet. He's gonna have AK in his range so we're not always stacking off when we hit set. We need better implied odds.

River seems like a pretty easy fistpump shove, dunno what you're concerned about tbh. Why would he check AKcc AQcc etc on flop when he's the aggressor? He should be leading with his entire range probably, so him checking is odd actually. Still, fistpump shove for me.

[griffey24]

Fold pre, you definitely don't have set hunting odds. This is all the more true because you aren't even fist pump shoving this river, so clearly we need effective stacks to be much bigger to be set hunting.

Definitely shove river. Gotta figure most of his FD's will bet river, unless he missed a c/r here.

[OngBonga]

I'm also raising this turn to get value from the Acx Kcx in his range. Gets tricky if he 3bets because he didn't lead the flop, so it kinda takes JJ+ out of his range, meaning he doesn't jam these hands that we now beat. But I probably still call a turn 3bet because he won't always have a flush and we still have equity when he does.

[Cobra_1878]

Usually I would fold to a 3bet. However, my BU raises at 10NL get 3bet ridiculously high that I almost just auto-call now.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Usually I would fold to a 3bet. However, my BU raises at 10NL get 3bet ridiculously high that I almost just auto-call now.

... and open 2 - 2.5x ... ?

[Cobra_1878]

... and open 2 - 2.5x ... ?

Pretty much always 2.5x yeah.

[OngBonga]

Usually I would fold to a 3bet. However, my BU raises at 10NL get 3bet ridiculously high that I almost just auto-call now.

This is for sure a mistake. I get where you're coming from, but you have to fold to 3bets sometimes on the button. This hand is horrible to play in 3bet pots when we're not the aggressor. He's leading pretty much every flop, and we're folding when there's no 4. It's that simple. We need something like x15 implied odds, more the wider he 3bets. If villain has a high 3b freq on his bb, then consider open folding low pairs on the button and r/c hands that flop top pair and big draws, hands that flop equity reasonably often rather than a monster once every now and then, that's how I'd adjust. I'm not saying it's right, but I feel like I can play KJ in position in a 3b pot better than 44.

[MadMojoMonkey]

We need something like x15 implied odds, more the wider he 3bets.

I'm not sure I know what you mean about the 15x.

We need to get a profit of ~8x on our pre-flop monies from Villain into the pot for a 0EV set mine. (At 8x it's slightly +EV.)

I usually hear the 15 - 20x as a guide to Villain's stack size, since we don't want to be in a position where we must stack Villain in order to make a profitable set mine.

[rpm]

I'm not sure I know what you mean about the 15x.

We need to get a profit of ~8x on our pre-flop monies from Villain into the pot for a 0EV set mine. (At 8x it's slightly +EV.)

I usually hear the 15 - 20x as a guide to Villain's stack size, since we don't want to be in a position where we must stack Villain in order to make a profitable set mine.

@ the bold, this is only if we are sure villain stacks off 100% of the time postflop right? (and we have no plan to bluff or make him fold a better hand). even then i think it's a bit higher than 8x minimum implied odds to account for the times we get set/set or get sucked out on etc. could def be wrong though

i think 15x is an old generalisation/adage about the required implied odds of setmining. i personally think our set-mining decisions can and should be more dynamic than following a guideline. but i'm guessing that's what ong's referring to

[MadMojoMonkey]

The odds of catching exactly a set OTF when you start with a PP are ~8.5:1.
The odds of flopping a set or better are ~7.5:1

You are right, though that we do sometimes lose when we catch that hand.

[griffey24]

I'm not sure I know what you mean about the 15x.

We need to get a profit of ~8x on our pre-flop monies from Villain into the pot for a 0EV set mine. (At 8x it's slightly +EV.)

I usually hear the 15 - 20x as a guide to Villain's stack size, since we don't want to be in a position where we must stack Villain in order to make a profitable set mine.

I've done some pretty extensive math on this, and my calculations showed we need around 17x effective to profitably set hunt.

If we get all-in on the flop when we catch our set we're probably still losing on average about 15% of the time. 10% of the time they have an overpair, and 20-25% of the time when they get a straight or FD on flop. Not to mention times we're set over setted. Add in the times where we call 44 to a 3b, and the flop is 225 and we just can't fold the flop cbet and this adds up pretty quick.

[MadMojoMonkey]

excellent post

[OngBonga]

Yeah griffey can explain way better than I can. You have to be realistic about how often you stack off when you hit set, and you have to take into account that setting doesn't guarantee us the pot. I haven't done any extensive maths, I've basically pulled x15 from conversations at this site and use it as a rough guide. If villain is a super nit, then maybe we can setmine with slightly less implied odds, because if villain's range is QQ+ AK then he stacks off more often than when his range is 99+ AQs+ for example. And if villain is 3betting particularly wide but not too spewy post flop, then setmining becomes a poor tactic to try and extract value and we're better off playing high cards against his 3bets because we flop better. Mining for monsters is not something we should do out of habit. This is much easier to say that put into practice, especially once we've opened a small pair in late position.

[Pascal]

I've done some pretty extensive math on this, and my calculations showed we need around 17x effective to profitably set hunt.

If we get all-in on the flop when we catch our set we're probably still losing on average about 15% of the time. 10% of the time they have an overpair, and 20-25% of the time when they get a straight or FD on flop. Not to mention times we're set over setted. Add in the times where we call 44 to a 3b, and the flop is 225 and we just can't fold the flop cbet and this adds up pretty quick.

Cheers for the maths Griffey, more people that see this the better - it's a figure everyone could do with remembering. Out of curiosity, in a SNG/Tournament should we be looking at greater than 17x effective because of loss of stack/chip utility?

[griffey24]

Cheers for the maths Griffey, more people that see this the better - it's a figure everyone could do with remembering. Out of curiosity, in a SNG/Tournament should we be looking at greater than 17x effective because of loss of stack/chip utility?

I think any tourney grinders might be able to speak to this better than me. My gut says that yes we would need to have more than 17x effective. Stacks are generally shallower so there may be less opportunity for set hunting in tourneys anyhow.

[OngBonga]

I think any tourney grinders might be able to speak to this better than me. My gut says that yes we would need to have more than 17x effective. Stacks are generally shallower so there may be less opportunity for set hunting in tourneys anyhow.

In my experience at low stakes MTTs, setmining is very profitable during the first hour or so when people will stack tp like the nuts, but becomes much less so as the stacks erode and the fish get eliminated.