River raise after betting 3 streets with flopped flush

[BorisTheSpider]

Can anyone find a fold here? All I know about villain is that over 9 hands so far he's 67/56. TBH I don't know if I can find a fold against _anyone_ it's so unlikely he flopped better - maybe a 5/5.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $12.04 (120.4 bb)
SB: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $40.79 (407.9 bb)
MP: $23.52 (235.2 bb)
CO: $9.63 (96.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J 7
4 folds, SB raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.40) A 8 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, SB calls $0.90

River: ($2.80) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.60, SB raises to $8.65 and is all-in


My river range: 8h8d, 8s8d, 8s8h, 4h4d, 4s4d, 4s4h, Ad9d, As9s, Ah8h, Ad8d, As8s, Ah4h, Ad4d, As4s, AhTc, AdTc, AsTc, Ah9c, Ad9c, As9c, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc3c, Kc2c, KhJc, KcJh, KcJd, KcJs, KdJc, KsJc, Kc7h, Kc7d, Kc7s, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Qc5c, Qc3c, Qc2c, QhJc, QcJh, QcJd, QcJs, QdJc, QsJc, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Tc9c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, 9d8d, 9s8s, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7h6c, 7c6h, 7c6d, 7c6s, 7d6c, 7s6c, 6c5c, 5c3c

With his sizing, I need to call 39% which is about 80% of my flushes. Like I could call all my T high flushes, and fold anything smaller.

So yeah, can't fold from that perspective either.

[griffey24]

What the heck kind of spazz line is villain taking. If this was a standard pot, where you were PFR and triple barreling and villain called down and c/bombed river I'd probably fold. Esp after the big sizing you used.

But here where villain as PFR takes c/c line down, this is very strange. Seems like a spot he's c/c down like AxKc, or KKc and now spazzing cause he blocks the nuts on river? I don't think I can fold to this dumb line.

[BorisTheSpider]

What the heck kind of spazz line is villain taking. If this was a standard pot, where you were PFR and triple barreling and villain called down and c/bombed river I'd probably fold. Esp after the big sizing you used.

Yeah, I thought you might have something to say about the sizing!!!

I did listen - I've been betting smaller a lot, but this spot seemed a good one to bet big - tiny flop pot, and he's not folding an A, a good club, or a straight draw around the 4/8, so I figured it was a good time to juice the pot.

But here where villain as PFR takes c/c line down, this is very strange. Seems like a spot he's c/c down like AxKc, or KKc and now spazzing cause he blocks the nuts on river? I don't think I can fold to this dumb line.

Well, yeah - it looks spazzy, but I didn't really take that into consideration at the time, I'm more thinking I just can't see how I can fold to anyone but a proven nit when it's just so unlikely he flopped better.

[abelardx]

You have pot odds of 2.3:1. So you need to be ahead when you call 1/3.3 = 30% of the time to break even and more to make it +EV.

Without a good read that villain is a very good player who wouldn't make a big stupid bluff, I am calling here simply because it's blind on blind and, more importantly, he checked the river oop. This is one of the few exceptions to the 'river raise is the nuts' principle. In fact I just saw it tonight.

The point is they are never checking a nut hand oop on the river. They suspect you might be bluffing, they feel bullied, they 'deserve' a showdown, you're being a prick (in their minds), and they want to punish you. So all-in and 'eat that you bluffy bastard'. haha So yeah definitely calling. If he has one of the 13 combos that beat you, I say that really is a cooler. I definitely think you are good more than 30% of the time here.

edit: Oh yeah and by his stats he's a maniac. So definitely a very +EV situation. Sometimes they get lucky but this is a very profitable spot. Always calling against this guy.

[caddie444]

There is no way I'd ever fold here, it's just so much more likely he's spazzing. Even though check raises on the river are usually the nuts, how he played previous streets is just too weird = call

[griffey24]

Boris - this is actually a GOOD spot for big sizing. It's a spot where he's clearly bluff catching, and we're polarized, so I like it.

[BorisTheSpider]

OK so looking again at this hand (and I agree I can never really fold, but just for interests sake)

I think he'll always bet the flop with sets, two pair and top pair, I also think he'd bet medium flushes to charge Kc to draw, so I think he could can check-call with KK-99, his flopped nut flushes, flush draws and straight draws.

Turn makes 9s a set so he raises, other than that I'll give him the same to keep calling.

So on the river, his range look like 55% pairs, about 8% nut flushes, about 15% two pair, about 7% straight, 3% sets and 10% total air.

Like abelardx said, I need to be good 30% of the time when he check-jams the river, he has 7 combos of flopped nut flushes, so if he has 3 combos of bluffs I'm good to call, so even if he calls down with say KcJx then jams the river because he blocks the nuts, calling is breakeven and if he spazzes with anything else over and above that then the call looks good.

Incidentally, if he always shoves KcXx here because of the blocker, I'm good 60%.

[abelardx]

Th well e manufacturer makes the choice at manner a the maximum rate of manner a instinctively

This vegina guy is kinda confused about the purpose of the forum.