Value raise the river?

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is 19/18/11, standard TAG other than the high 3bet, no specific notes yet.

Can we value raise the river?

Crushed by: 3 combos of AK left, 3 of AA.
Crushing: 1 of QQ, 3 of 33 (he might have 3bet that with those stats)

Can he have JTs? If so, 4 more combos that we beat.

Chopping: 2 of KQ

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $13.26 (132.6 bb)
SB: $13.76 (137.6 bb)
BB: $13.71 (137.1 bb)
UTG: $11.23 (112.3 bb)
MP: $11.02 (110.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $51.05 (510.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN folds, SB raises to $1, BB folds, Hero calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.10) K K 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.10) Q (2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($4.10) A (2 players)
SB bets $3

[kickass]

There is only 1 combo of qq

[abelardx]

With trips good kicker I'm looking to get all-in. Checking the dry flop is fine but I'd put in a raise on the turn for sure after boating up. The A is not a great card. If he bets more than half pot like he did I'd probably just call.

[griffey24]

If he bets AJ/AT on this river would he call a min raise? Does he 3b JT? If he had a bad Kx would he ever check flop?

[Pascal]

With trips good kicker I'm looking to get all-in. Checking the dry flop is fine but I'd put in a raise on the turn for sure after boating up. The A is not a great card. If he bets more than half pot like he did I'd probably just call.

Why is the Ace not a great card? What range of hands are you putting him on if you're raising the turn? What do you think our hand looks like to him at the moment?

[abelardx]

Why is the Ace not a great card? What range of hands are you putting him on if you're raising the turn? What do you think our hand looks like to him at the moment?

1. cuz of AK
2. Qx and Kx
3. Qx

[abelardx]

I don't hate a raise though after all we do have a boat.

[Pascal]

There's only 4 combos of AK given we have KQ, but there's a lot of combos of AQ and AJ which now may well think they have the best hand so the Ace is far from the worst card. I think most Queens, possibly AQ expected, are folding to a turn raise, so we're better flatting and keeping them in.

[kickass]

Can villain has kxs with his high 3b would he call a raise?

[OngBonga]

This actually feels like a tricky spot to me. Yeah we have a monster and there's no way I'm ever folding river. But it feels like such an easy raise here, when if I think about it I'm struglling to find a hand villain calls a raise with that we beat. AK and AA got there, QQ is one combo, 33 might or might not be in his range and might or might not call a river raise, everything else folds to a raise unless he's retarded, and with these stats I doubt that. In theory I think a disciplined call is in order, but in reality I probably raise here too because we have a huge hand and it's so rare we're beat.

[OngBonga]

Can villain has kxs with his high 3b would he call a raise?

I'm not even convinced we get any more value from 33 if he has it, let alone Kx. If we minraise river, what does villain think our range is weighted towards? Does he think we can raise river with KJ or float turn and bluff river? I suspect hero would need a spewy image to find more value from weaker hands here.

[The Bean Counter]

Pretty standard call for me on this board given villain's line - I don't see any value in raising.

[griffey24]

I think the problem in this thread is that ppl are focused on a raise being a jam here. I agree that there isn't too much value in jamming here, but we can raise anywhere from a min-raise to a jam and I can see a small raise having value here.

[Robb]

I think the problem in this thread is that ppl are focused on a raise being a jam here. I agree that there isn't too much value in jamming here, but we can raise anywhere from a min-raise to a jam and I can see a small raise having value here.

^ ^ ^ +1

[OngBonga]

I think the problem in this thread is that ppl are focused on a raise being a jam here. I agree that there isn't too much value in jamming here, but we can raise anywhere from a min-raise to a jam and I can see a small raise having value here.

If you minraise, what do you do if he jams? Do you think he ever jams worse? If not, are you folding?

[griffey24]

I probably wouldn't min mi raise, but maybe make it 6.50 or 7. If he jams, we'd probably have to fold. Even if we can't make that fold, it's the same result as jamming vs his better hands, but we give all the hands we do beat a tough spot facing such a small raise, so we'll get more calls for sure.

Ideally raise fold, but in practice i can see how that would be tough.

[OngBonga]

Yeah that's what I was thinking. r/f intended, but in practise it's nearly always a r/c because lol we have a monster that's near impossible to fold.

I think this is one reason I call the river bet, because I don't think I'm capable of making the fold when he jams, which kind of shits on the value we were trying to get in the first place from his weaker hands that also struggle to fold. Calling is obviously going to be very profitable here, and it's easier than r/f. Seems like the failsafe option.

[OngBonga]

The question really is what is the most +ev option between r/c and call? I accept r/f might in theory be the best option, but it's not r/f if we can't make the fold, it's r/c.