The limper is, well, a limper - 73/9 over 11 hands.
It's probably a mistake not to bet the turn. I don't mind a check, because I'm not sure what we're getting two streets of value from that didn't bet the flop, but I think perhaps it is a bet - interested in opinions on that.
Mostly though, not sure how big to make the river. I won't mention what I made it because I want to see what everone else thinks.
If a raise to something sensible gets called about 90% of the time (he's clearly bad), then raising to say $3 gets another ~$2.20 out of his 4x.
If a jam gets called about 30% of the time it extracts about $4. Is an estimate of a 30% calling frequency for a jam too optimistic?
What about something in-between? I am not sure I like anything in between - I either want to get called a lot with a reasonable sized river 3bet, or get a jam called often enough to make it higher EV, but I'm not sure he really calls say a raise to $6 much more often than he calls a jam.
I'll probably get scalded for saying this but all the chips now. This donkey is calling a straight all fucking day long, even if he thinks it always loses or chops, and it certianly looks like he has 4x.
edit - yeah he probably calls 5x too, I didn't even think about that, I just think he has a straight so often here.
A shove is a ludicrous bet here but I doubt a serial limper is raising Ax here, and even he must know that 5x is not faring well when called, which is why I think he has 4x or 22/33 so often here. I do not think he is folding a straight ever, he'll snap call it off and cry bad beat because he sucks at poker so hard.
I really do think shoving is best here. Does anyone think he folds 4x? Does anyone think he's likely to call 5x to a $3 raise but fold it to a shove? This is the micros, and this guy is as bad a player as one can hope to face, judging by his limp raito. If he has 4x, then as far as he's concerned he has the nuts. The way the hand has played out, it's really going to look to him like we have 4x, and this guy isn't going to fold a 4 himself when he thinks he chops, because he's too bad to realise that would be a terrible call to a shove.
I expect this guy to call a shove 4x 22 33 52 53 A5 AA, which in my opinion is identical to his river raise range.
I really do think shoving is best here. Does anyone think he folds 4x? Does anyone think he's likely to call 5x to a $3 raise but fold it to a shove? This is the micros, and this guy is as bad a player as one can hope to face, judging by his limp raito. If he has 4x, then as far as he's concerned he has the nuts. The way the hand has played out, it's really going to look to him like we have 4x, and this guy isn't going to fold a 4 himself when he thinks he chops, because he's too bad to realise that would be a terrible call to a shove.
I expect this guy to call a shove 4x 22 33 52 53 A5 AA, which in my opinion is identical to his river raise range.
I actually raised to about $3 which corresponds to Griffey and Rentons advice, but after the hand I thought maybe I'd missed a lot of value. I'm not 100% convinced either way - Griffey and Renton may have this right, but I do think we need to bear in mind it's 10NL, he's a limper, and he thinks 4x is the stone nuts and often isn't folding when he thinks it's a chop. Your range for him to call a river shove also corresponds with what I think - his river raising range and his shove calling range are probably identical.
Yeah I think griff and renton are bang on right if we're talking about optimal sizing vs the average fish, I'd expect a shove to be losing a huge amount of value vs most people, certainly vs 99.9% of the field at 25nl and above. Even 10nl I expect folds from most players with 4x, but not this guy, he's limping in so much that he's demonstrating he has no idea how to play poker anywhere near optimally and as such I totally expect 4x to snap call a river shove with a soon to be flacid erection.
a little town called none of your goddamn business
I don't thnk the micros are bad enough these days to warrant massively over shoving on a paired board vs a one card straight. Maybe in 2007, but 10nl these days is equal to 100nl in those days and I wouldn't have shoved at 100nl in 2007 with this, just sayin.
I'm playing 10nl and some people are that bad. I expect 4x to call this where villain is 73/9. He's a beginner and thinks he has the nuts. I'm not shoving this vs the vast majority of villains, but this one I think we get called by 4x and better, while I don't think he raises 5x on river, and even if he does, he might call that because trips. And if he's good enough to recognise that 4x is bad vs a shove, then he's good enough to realise it's bad to a raise to $3. I really think in this instance shoving is massively the best move. I acknowledge I could be wrong, but if he folds then we make a note and make smaller value bets in future and it maybe cost us 20bb or so, but if he calls we know he will in future which is worth a lot of bb's.
SB had A, K (two pair, Aces and threes).
Hero had 6, 6 (full house, sixes over threes).
Outcome: Hero won $16.33
Notes on villain - "fishy as fuck"
No HUD as my comp is awful.
This is the first time in my session where I overshoved the river. I figured he had an ace, didn't expect it to be kicked so strongly but I would hope this hand shows that if villain is fishy enough, he will call anything that is perceived to be too good to fold, regardless how big the bet is.
10nl is pretty fucking bad, believe me. I don't consider a river shove in OP's hand to be reckless. I expect it to show a huge profit, more than any other play, given the villain. I hope this hand I post shows why I think this.
Another thing - if he folds his 4x to a shove and calls all his boats, we're still making money. If we raise to $3, how much of his 4x do we need calling to make up for the value we lose vs his boats?
I'll see if I can crunch the numbers on this tomorrow.
I shove river thinking he always calls an ace and never calls a flush to any kind of raise, pretty standard river line imo. Looking back I hate my turn sizing and hate my call. Flop is standard check, it's pretty unlikely he can call a bet and I'm not afraid of his flush draws obv.
Hero had A, 10 (four of a kind, tens).
SB had K, 8 (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: Hero won $7.85
Yeah 10nl is very bad. I'm starting to think shoving the nuts on river vs unknows is the best play. Some people just cannot make big folds, even when it's not a big fold and just looks like one at a glance.
I feel like I messed this hand up and still got maximum value.
I don't thnk the micros are bad enough these days to warrant massively over shoving on a paired board vs a one card straight. Maybe in 2007, but 10nl these days is equal to 100nl in those days and I wouldn't have shoved at 100nl in 2007 with this, just sayin.
Ah I wish I could sit at one of those (2007) 100nl tables now.
Ong nice to see the proof in the pudding here. I can Honestly say I struggle w river value situations (vs. More competent opps though where I get called w nuts and wonder if a shove would have gotten callef.
"We're all just a million little gods causing rainstorms, turning every good thing to rust...."AF
After being so passive on turn u can't get too aggro on the river, just multiply his bet by three and hope for trips to call, str8 doesn't seem to have played that passively on 5. And ur title gives away the result IMO
If things were to magically revert to January 1st, 2003, only I could take everything I know now in terms of poker ability/knowledge, bonus clearing, etc., I think it's safe to say that it would be trivially easy to make over a million dollars.
I expected him to have a flush once he c/c the turn after betting the flop, or a weak pair which he was folding to basically any river bet especially on the A, so I figured I might as well concentrate on his flushes and just get as much value as possible - I certainly didn't expect him to snap it off with this...
Max value for a well concealed hand
5
A
(3 players)
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
, 6
, A
(two pair, Aces and threes).
