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[50NL] AKo...Facing 4bet pre...Multi-way

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  1. #7
    Renton's Avatar
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    I think it is pretty close actually. If you knew for certain that UTG wasn't ever going to overcall the all in, then:

    0 = (5.25+5.25+0.5+65.18-2.8)x - (65.18-5.25)(1-x)

    (2.8 is for the rake, it actually matters here)

    x = 45% equity required to call

    If you suppose his range is TT+ AK, AKo has 40.3%. Gotta fold.

    If you suppose he 3-bets KK+ AK 33% of the time and jams 99+ AQs AK every time, then AKo has 44%. Still a fold.

    If you suppose he 3-bets KK+ AK 66% of the time and jams 99+ AQo/AQs every time, then AKo has 51%. Now we're talking.


    Remember, that was all assuming that UTG NEVER calls. Suppose we assume that UTG would never not 4-bet with KK+, and would flat the 3-bet and overcall two all-ins with AK and QQ exactly.

    Your equity assuming BT's loose range (AQo 99-QQ and 33% AK KK AA) and UTG's range (AK QQ) would be

    http://www.pokerstrategy.com
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 41.40% 39.21% 2.19% { QQ-99, AdAh, AdAs, KdKh, KdKs, AQs, AdKd, AhKh, AQo, AhKd, AsKd, AsKh, AcKd }
    MP3 32.07% 18.74% 13.33% { QQ, AKs, AKo }
    CO 26.53% 12.83% 13.70% { AKo }


    AKo runs really badly in 3 way all-ins. When UTG overcalls, even when he doesn't dominate us with KK/AA, its still a really bad situation for us.

    Also, it would be pretty absurd to assume that the button ever jams AQo here for 65, or even for 50. It's just an easy call for him.


    cliff's notes: It's an easy fold.
    Last edited by Renton; 03-03-2014 at 10:44 PM.

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