Hand Analysis

[seven-deuce]

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

UTG ($1.94)
MP ($1.22)
Hero (Button) ($3.86)
SB ($2.68)
BB ($3.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
2 folds, Hero raises $0.06, SB calls $0.05, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.14) 4, 5, Q (2 players)
SB bets $0.06, Hero raises $0.24, SB calls $0.18

Turn: ($0.62) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.48, SB raises $1, Hero ??

HUD layout - vpip/pfr/steal/fold to steal/3bet/cbet/fold to cbet

Villain's stats - 30/15/39/33/3.6/100/- over 84 hands

My turn betting range: {QQ-AA, 55-44, 54s, AQ, AKhh, AJ-AThh, A3-A2hh, KThh, 76hh} 45 combos

Villain's raising range: {55-44, QJ, 54s, AQ, AKhh, AThh, 76hh} 25 combos (I discounted sets and AQ)

Against this range I can only profitably stack off with sets.

Do you think my range for villain is accurate?

1/(1+1.1) = ~48%

If I raise all my sets and call my best draws I am continuing with 14 combinations. Which is 31% so I am exploitable to bluffs here.

What do yous think? Is there anything which I'm not considering that I should?

[spoonitnow]

Account for future betting when looking at whether or not you should call here. Also realize that you have shown a ton of strength, and your opponent isn't going to be bluffing you often here at all. You shouldn't be worried much about being exploitable to bluffs because he's not going to be bluffing that much (if hardly ever).

Something that can prepare you mentally that will give you better results is to decide before you bet the turn what you're going to do if you get raised. In this spot, I think it's a clear bet/fold.

As an aside, he could also have something like JhTh.

[seven-deuce]

Yeah I suppose, when I was doing the bet/(bet+pot) calculation I was thinking it was borderline useless in this scenario because he's not going to be bluffing very often and even if he was the EV he gained on the turn by making me fold a good chunk of my range could be lost on the river. Like if he gains $0.20 worth of EV when I fold but loses >$0.20 of EV the times I continue I'm not being exploited at all. Is that right?