Carnage before Christmas

[baudib]

I don't think Ong is taking this game seriously FFS.

[wufwugy]

exchanging keybored for hoops

baud bid jkds hoops

lynch baud faster

[wufwugy]

gotta be honest, i see no way the village wins this. we're sitting ducks. huge wolf team, no seer or strong block power, only argued-to-be-pro-wolf-vig power. even if we had our strongest vil game ever, i think win equity would still be <20%

which is totally fine since this game is supposed to be about carnage. my mana was drained from the last game. i can't guarantee a win like i normally do.

[wufwugy]

perhaps a saving grace is that i think the wolves realize how easy their win will be, so that could have incentivized them to act more lackadaisical than normal.

note specifically baud. hoops too. bid to to a lesser extent, except mb not since this could be rambunctious for him

[JKDS]

unlynch woofwoof, lynch hoopy

I thought his last 4 posts were wolfy too.

[JKDS]

Wuf, you're way off on our win chance. Ya, 9v4 is hard. But almost every player in our roster is an epic soul reader, and each has a 3/13 chance of using that skill to kill a wolf.

[wufwugy]

2 mislynches (even with no vig shots) and it's over after the hotshot wolf gets a kill at first light.

the only possible way to win this game is via soulreads, but those never win games. never have, never will. they're way too hard to achieve 100% accuracy. we'll get no wear and tear process here, which is the essential process to every village win ive seen

granted, we knew this coming in. carnage favors wolves big time. that could perhaps be mitigated by some major vil powers, but we dont have any

[wufwugy]

i think we can use that information to our advantage though (slight advantage)

my thoughts are basically that we should get the best lynch we can today, the vig should shoot, then both vil hotshots should shoot on d2. with luck three wolves would die in that process. if not, it'll be harder than hell to find 2 or more wolves when no more mislynches are allowed

[JKDS]

We just need to soulread and play well. This <20% talk is depressing, and we are guaranteed to lose if people arent trying because of it.

The way you talked about this makes you an obv villager. But your theory on the wolves being carefree doesnt marry baudib-bid-hoopy together. Theres lots of people not taking this seriously, and BID's posts so far read very villagery to me. Theyre super in line with his villager game, which despite last game, I can read well. I can be wrong on baudib, ill give you that. He's fooled me i think 3 games in a row now.

[wufwugy]

yeah the most kills from villagers we can get before the game is cinched is four. if we go purely by lynching, it's two. if we use vig and/or hotshot, it's three of those and one lynch.

killing one wolf in this process does nothing unless it's the hotshot. killing two wolves would allow one more mislynch, but if one of the kills is the hotshot, it allows two more mislynches

regardless, fat lol at this. all the wolves have to do to win is avoid mass carnage for two days

[wufwugy]

good luck to teh soulreaders!

[Keybored]

LYNCH KEITH

[baudib]

Wufwugy definitely acting like he has played before.

[JKDS]

We have like, a 55% chance of just randomly lynching a wolf over day 1 and day 2 (assuming no shots fired, better chance if they are). Things arent that dire.

Your theory of "villagers dont win by killing wolves early, but by finding teams late" would be disastrous this game, and i can totally see where you're coming from and why you're upset over our chances this game. But things arent crazy bad.

[GatorJH]

soul read #1 lynch keybored

[wufwugy]

We have like, a 55% chance of just randomly lynching a wolf over day 1 and day 2 (assuming no shots fired, better chance if they are). Things arent that dire.

Your theory of "villagers dont win by killing wolves early, but by finding teams late" would be disastrous this game, and i can totally see where you're coming from and why you're upset over our chances this game. But things arent crazy bad.

oh im not upset. we asked for this. im just pointing out what i think is most relevant

in a way this sort of game actually might be better for developing style, since it forces people to find accurate soulreads instead of going for epic showdown cred

[baudib]

****************
serious post incoming
****************

Gabe is right in that the bodyguard is pretty meh, we'd have to get some rungood in the bodyguard binking the nom, and also having the bodyguard be less valuable than the target. It'd be a decent equity bump if the bodyguard is a potential mislynch who dies in place of who the wolves target.

The most valuable use of the village specials could well be in a late game claiming scenario, that's a major difference between this game and the Anon game, which had similar numbers (9x4).
************************************************** *

[OngBonga]

Cmon this is gonna be easy guys. I already have wuf and jkds as village, and I'm not even trying.

[Keybored]

soul read #1 lynch keybored

Your first post was meaningless.
Your second post was to your wolf pal, Keith.
I bold Keith.
U bold me.

Like wuf sez... ez pz

[OngBonga]

If gator and keith are both wolves we are absolutely fucked.

[baudib]

*********************76% SERIOUS POAST INCOMING******************

That really is a fairly wolfy opening by Keybored, unless he is the n0 seer

************************************************** *************

[GatorJH]

If gator and keith are both wolves we are absolutely fucked.

MUAHAHAHAHAAHAHA

JK

[wufwugy]

i sense the interest in this game to be a big fat fucking zero

hey baud didja like my furst curse?

[wufwugy]

im going out on a limb and saying gator is not a wolf.

why?

because he appears too happy


if he is a wolf, this is not counter to my gator-reading abilities, as i read him perfectly. i just need a handful of days to assess his entire game to get to that perfection

[wufwugy]

counter to that is that if gator indeed rolled wolf again, he may have completed the circle and gone full joker

which means he aint give a shit and just gonna post like he's vil again. or it could be that he initially saw that the wolves win this game twelve out of ten times, so there's no need for him to "try" to win

[wufwugy]

if the village wins this, i will declare that every time ive bolded daven has been the stupidest thing ive ever done

[baudib]

***********************93% SERIOUS POST INCOMING*****************************************

level 1: Gator bursting with EXTREME VILLAGERYNESS!
level 2: hmmmm
level 3: WTF

Due to unforeseen circumstances, there will be continued delays on more in-depth Gator-Baud interactions ITT IMO

**********************************BACK TO REGULARLY SCHEDULE PROGRAMMING***************************

[wufwugy]

baud is infinity^infinity percent wolf

[BankItDrew]

This game everyone is playing weird. I suggest you all grow up and take this game seriously.

[wufwugy]

hey bid. prove to me you're not a wolf

[wufwugy]

I SAID HEY BID. PROVE TO ME YOU'RE NOT A WOLF

[wufwugy]

bid is now factwolf. factwolf is the new lockwolf. it means wolfing is confirmed pre-flip, so if the flip is vil, the factwolf was already known, so there will be no second guessing teh lynching of teh factwolf

[JKDS]

I'll be rallying a lynch on the quiet people soon. I'm not losing to wolves who play the quiet game.

[wufwugy]

I'll be rallying a lynch on the quiet people soon. I'm not losing to wolves who play the quiet game.

wolf harder imo

[JKDS]

Wuf, we cant afford to have a quarter of the players not contributing. Not in this game. We need educated vig shots and educated lynches. We cant do that if a few players arent even here.

Gabe, what gives?

Key, how do you get to both keith as a wolf, and gator as his buddy?

Dhuber, why shouldnt I be concerned that you claim villager, again, even though you promised not to do it this game?

[wufwugy]

Wuf, we cant afford to have a quarter of the players not contributing. Not in this game. We need educated vig shots and educated lynches. We cant do that if a few players arent even here.

Gabe, what gives?

Key, how do you get to both keith as a wolf, and gator as his buddy?

Dhuber, why shouldnt I be concerned that you claim villager, again, even though you promised not to do it this game?

sorry jkds wolfing hard

it's like you didnt see the veracity in my comments. you even admitted this isnt a wear and tear game, yet you're acting like it is

fun thing is that this is exclusively an epic soulread game, where we have no duty to rep

rescind baud lynch jkds

they're both wolves though. if baud's not, then what the fuck does he think he's fucking fucking

[wufwugy]

meh rescind jkds

it's possible he actually thinks that trying to put pressure on lower content players (who? it's just been 18 hrs or some shit) is a path to victory

im gonna reassess then put my bold on the factwolf

[JKDS]

I dont understand your point, and I dont care. People cant be read if they dont talk, its that simple.

[wufwugy]

actually i am super unconvinced that jkds thinks players are lying low. if he was a perceptive villager, he would not think that, since the only options are dhubs, gabe, and mb keybored. but ofc he can't name names

i hope this is cookies on pumpkin pie and he pulled this line since baud knows it's the kind of line i love and hopes to get me off baud

so the question is who between jkds and baud should we kill first?

i put it into rando dot org and got baud

rescind factwolfjkds and lynch factwolfbaud

[wufwugy]

lol i crack myself up

srsly tho. lynch baud. under what circumstances does anybody view his play as something worthy of non-lynching?

[wufwugy]

naw fuck that. read on jkds is better. this is not viljkds

lynch jewkids

[wufwugy]

or maybe it is viljkds but there's no way to assess properly since d1 is already late game

sigh sigh sigh sigh. shoulda made me megavig. six shots at once. solve everybody's problems then

[BankItDrew]

Wuf going crazy itt

I SAID HEY BID. PROVE TO ME YOU'RE NOT A WOLF

Not sure how I can do that effectively this early.

I feel like some players are not playing the same was as I view them though.

Ong is one, for obvious reasons.

gator is another, for less obvious reasons. Reasons that are more about how if he finally flipped villager, I'd expect him to be all "OMFG FINALLY" or something to that effect.

Your argument about baudib making a read error on dhub is a good one tbh.

Dhuber is the only player who I feel is being consistent with their play. Every fucking game he opens the exact same robotic VV way.

Even wuf is different. You said yourself that you wanted to make an effort trying to be more concise with your posts. A better content:fluff ratio I presume. So far you're doing a decent job. Maybe improved your game 25%.

[BankItDrew]

My top two villagers are dhub and wuf

My top three wolves are ong, gator, and baudib.

[baudib]

MY TOP VILLAGER READ IS ONGBONGA

I THINK I'M VOTING HIM

TIS PROBLEM BUT IT'S EARLY I CAN RECALIBRATE

[OngBonga]

Did somebody say beetleguise?

[MadMojoMonkey]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
<<< V O T E ~ C O U N T >>>
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/

player (# votes) - who's voting for them

gator (2) - hoopy, ong
BID (1) - Keith
hoopy (1) - JKDS
JKDS (1) - wuf
Keith (1) - key
key (1) - gator
Luco (1) - BID
ong (1) - baud

novote (4) - dhubs, gabe, luco, rong

Day 1 ends in ~24 hours

[wufwugy]

omfg voting has never been so spread out

just end it now

[OngBonga]

lynch wuf

quick, do another vote count.

[baudib]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
<<< V O T E ~ C O U N T >>>
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/

player (# votes) - who's voting for them

gator (2) - hoopy, ong
BID (1) - Keith
hoopy (1) - JKDS
JKDS (1) - wuf
Keith (1) - key
key (1) - gator
Luco (1) - BID
ong (1) - baud

novote (4) - dhubs, gabe, luco, rong

Day 1 ends in ~24 hours

This wagon formation lynches a wolf ~100% of the time.

[wufwugy]

time to add 3 more hotshots, so we can get that carnage

[baudib]

Wuf going crazy itt



Not sure how I can do that effectively this early.

I feel like some players are not playing the same was as I view them though.

Ong is one, for obvious reasons.

gator is another, for less obvious reasons. Reasons that are more about how if he finally flipped villager, I'd expect him to be all "OMFG FINALLY" or something to that effect.

Your argument about baudib making a read error on dhub is a good one tbh.

Dhuber is the only player who I feel is being consistent with their play. Every fucking game he opens the exact same robotic VV way.

Even wuf is different. You said yourself that you wanted to make an effort trying to be more concise with your posts. A better content:fluff ratio I presume. So far you're doing a decent job. Maybe improved your game 25%.

tone: ok
content: meh

but wordspew like this from BID makes me go WTF



TONE OK BUT TH

[baudib]

time to add 3 more hotshots, so we can get that carnage

Spoiler: Show

no one has died

[baudib]

CONSOLIDATE ON 3 WAGONS AND RAND A SHOT ON THE TWO SURVIVORS

[OngBonga]

I've found one.

lynch rong

[OngBonga]

keith #2

[BankItDrew]

Baudib acting crazy actually means that my logic is bad regarding the trends thing. The fact that he is spewing the way he his means he may not be the same role he always is, making him a villager. On the other hand, wuf's point about baudibs read on dhuber is still solid.

baudibs CAPS is making me want to lynch him tho

[BankItDrew]

rescind luco
lynch baudib

[baudib]

If lynching Rong is wrong, I dun wanna be your mom.

[wufwugy]

ong and baud are not on the same team

[wufwugy]

hell mb they are. whatever. im done for the day. fun times

[baudib]

The new guy might be right about BID

lynch BID

[BankItDrew]

Lmao that was a total case of the "omg yor a wolf cause you think I'm a wolf! "

Fuck you, bauballs

[wufwugy]

funny how we have all this new activity, and the team is still baud bid jkds hoops

no need to call me goat, i already know im baaaaawesome

[OngBonga]

Can someone shoot him please.

why randomize day 1 lynch and not sure what info you are hoping to get from a private chat that you can't tell what happened in it. Left to himself BID is a liability and targetting gabe over that comment seems opportunistic. lynch BID

wolfing

[rong]

Thoughts:
bid - did he just get cross at people for fucking around, lol.
baudib - wtf is he doing? Lynch him ffs.
wuf - guaranteed villager because he'd never, ever reduce the value of his own victory.
Jkds - seems like a villager.
ongbonga - is quiet. which is odd, very odd. I'd peg him as seer if we had one.
Keith - also quiet, which is also odd, but again don't know what to make of it.

Lunch baudib for general douchery, it's really annoying and if he's not gonna take the game seriously then we may as well get rid of him.

[rong]

Ong, did you read the post above my shoot him post? I stand by it.

[baudib]

ITT we have

some people playing differently
some playing the same

#hottakes

DUCY?

[OngBonga]

The point is that I don't think a villager would post something that would make the wolves think he's not a hot shot. Except for doobs with his vanilla comment, which is obv standard.

[OngBonga]

@rong obv

as for keith, well using the word "opportunistic" to justify a d1 vote on drew is just too stupid for keith. He's trying too hard to justify his vote.

[BankItDrew]

tone: ok
content: meh

but wordspew like this from BID makes me go WTF



TONE OK BUT TH

Would you like my opinion on the content within this post?

[rong]

Of I was a hotshot, I would use it, day one, every time. So it wouldn't matter what the wolves thought. I even know who I'd shoot, it would be either you, wuf or Keith. For no reason other than pure entertainment on my behalf.

[baudib]

DANG SHIZZ GOT RIZZLES

[BankItDrew]

Rong, are you talking about me?

[baudib]

Would you like my opinion on the content within this post?

lol