Carnage before Christmas

[JKDS]

And then he makes the wolfiest post of all time.

[Hoopy]

Doesnt he? He claimed seer last game as a villager. Regardless, ong is right. You can look at this and say Key is statistically 33% to be a wolf, since 1/3 of the hotshots are wolves. You can also say every other player in this game is statistically 33% to be a wolf, since 4/12 players are wolves. The guessing game of "did key do this as a wolf" is no different than any other guessing game, except we get more information if the other hot shots fire. If you really want him dead, you should be advocating for the other hotshots to fire, not for key's quick lynch.

All ong is saying, is that its still better to have the hot shots fire tomorrow. And it still is.

He did that quite deliberately iirc. But anyway I agree with you and ong about leaving him alone for now, since he'll be confirmed either way soon enough.

[wufwugy]

Wuf, pretend key is a villager hotshot. Just pretend. Are you saying he never shoots on day 1? Ever?

Because I completely disagree.

naw he does shoot sometimes. but he shoots gator

shooting gabe is bottom of the barrel logic. on that alone, we should be throwing everything we have at key. his behavior is heavily heavily heavily wolf, yet we're clinging to some worthless notion that we could wait on killing him and somehow not lose. that numbers dictate that if he is a wolf and we know it by d2, yet no other wolves have died by then, the wolves cinched the win

there is zero value in waiting for confirmatioon unless we assume that we're killing other wolves as well before d2 ends. additionally, the wolves should know that having their guy shoot is very good for them

[rong]

Read this back then tell me why you're a retard.

If I had a gun, I wouldn't shoot you just for this.

[OngBonga]

If I had a gun, I wouldn't shoot you just for this.

So you don't think it's amusing that wuf is so sure that n, x, y and z are wolves, while voting for c?

[OngBonga]

Oh you said wouldn't.

My apologies.

[wufwugy]

And then he makes the wolfiest post of all time.

but let's still not lynch him! because it's possible we can have confirmation on his role tomorrow while we hand the gold to the wolves!

[OngBonga]

hoopy keith doobs keyb

[wufwugy]

raise your hand if you realize that if key is a villager, he decided against shooting somebody he thought was a wolf

key and ong confirmed must-deaths.

[wufwugy]

more specifically, he decided to shoot somebody he didnt consider a wolf

[OngBonga]

I hope you're a wolf wuf, because if you're not you're devolving into whatever you were before ww became a part of your life.

[OngBonga]

Look a keith's wall where he lays down the ong case. He screams villager.

[OngBonga]

/sarcasm

[OngBonga]

raise your hand if you realize that if key is a villager, he decided against shooting somebody he thought was a wolf

key and ong confirmed must-deaths.

Your basis is "he did something very wolfy, he must die", and with me it's "ong isn't blindly lynching the obvious wolf, he must be a wolf too". What you're doing is seeing potential wolf motivation, which is fine, but then assuming that because the potential exists, that must be the case. You're blind to the fact that villagers often do wolfy shit, and ignore that motivation can easily be misread. I want keybored left alive because he becomes confirmed one way or the other in later days. I'm not proving that is my motivation, but I at least demonstrate that town motivation exists for wanting him left alive. Whether we're still playing those later days is irrelevant. For us to have a realistic chance of winning this game, we need a non-keyb wolf today, imo. Simple. Yes it might suit the wolves to leave keyb wolf alive for a day or two, but it also suits the village. On another day you could blindly town me for the line I've taken since this all kicked off. But today is a Friday.

Now stop being stupid and get on board with me and jkds. Forming a trusting town block is our best hope of winning this. I'm happy enough with you and jkds, probably baudib too. But if you're hammering at us then we're gonna get nowhere.

[wufwugy]

crunched the numbers, not lynching key only works either a hotshot dies via d1 lynch or n1 killing, so the other vilhotshot shoots him, or if no hotshot dies, one of the vilhotshots shoots him first thing on d2

ong the value we get out of waiting on key is virtually zilch, but since it is possible to keep this from turning into a wolf cinch win if a hotshot kills him tomorrow even if he's unconfirmed, we might be able to wait on it

too bad key is still by far the best wagon right now, since he gives way way way more information about others

[wufwugy]

besides, the smart read is that key's a wolf. it's quite silly to see somebody playing uber wolf yet then not lynching him because of a super mega ultra teensy weensy slim probability of being able to confirm him not-wolf

[baudib]

not gonna pretend i've read everything but i saw Gabe flip and ask you

how have we not Majed Keybored by now?

[BankItDrew]

I'm siding with ong on this one, wuf. I'm sorry but I don't see how killing him prevents "a wolf cinch win".

[wufwugy]

not gonna pretend i've read everything but i saw Gabe flip and ask you

how have we not Majed Keybored by now?

because ong and jkds are also wolves who decided the best move was to have gabe get taken out and keep key from getting lynched

[baudib]

someone other than Wuf and BId please answer that question, kthx

[OngBonga]

It's a shame you think we're wolves wuf because you're obviously a villager.

I think keyb is a wolf, I agree with you wuf that I don't see him pulling this shit as a villager, especially given his delayed reaction and the tone of it. But still, I am not lynching someone who, if villager, is confirmable later, and if wolf, is capable of taking a bullet that will clear other villagers. Killing keybored is premature ejaculation, pure and simple.

Also, hoopy's reaction, the tone feels a lot like someone trying to act town, rather than being town.

[OngBonga]

baudib -

Look. This is a matter of logic.

If he's a wolf, then he becomes confirmed wolf from the living hot shot's pov when the other village hotshot dies, or from everyone's pov when both village hotshots die.

If he's a villager, he becomes confirmed when wolf hotshot dies, or when one village hotshot dies and he doesn't get shot.

We've just lost the bodyguard, who could confirm his alignment by claiming. Literally the least optimal thing we can do is to lynch keybored.

[OngBonga]

You should figure that out yourself baudib.

[BankItDrew]

I'f I'm not drunk in 4 hours from now - I'm going to be pissed (upset)

[wufwugy]

on principle alone, key is the correct lynch choice

it is wrong to let uber wolfy behavior slide because of some itty bitty chance he could be cleared as villager. this goes even without the point that him living helps the wolves a ton. the game could end before the d2 lynch if he's a wolf and lives.

here's how it is:

we have to have a d1 lynch

we have to have the vig shoot

one of us will be nommed

if none of these result in dead wolves, the game is 5v4, and just one hotshot shot during d2 that misses would create the wolf win

WE DO NOT WANT THIS. we need all vil shots to go off before the end.


where we're sitting at right now, the absolute best thing would be for a hotshot to kill key

[wufwugy]

let me stew on that for a second. then i declare whether or not i think we need a hotshot to shoot key today. only like 8 hours left

[baudib]

Ong I'm heavily distracted and haven't read anything on the last page other than the flip.

[OngBonga]

I quoted my post where I sum it up. If you can't be bothered to read that, then sod off until you can be bothered.

[JKDS]

on principle alone, key is the correct lynch choice

it is wrong to let uber wolfy behavior slide because of some itty bitty chance he could be cleared as villager. this goes even without the point that him living helps the wolves a ton. the game could end before the d2 lynch if he's a wolf and lives.

here's how it is:

we have to have a d1 lynch

we have to have the vig shoot

one of us will be nommed

if none of these result in dead wolves, the game is 5v4, and just one hotshot shot during d2 that misses would create the wolf win

WE DO NOT WANT THIS. we need all vil shots to go off before the end.


where we're sitting at right now, the absolute best thing would be for a hotshot to kill key

You're saying if nothing happens, its 5v4 day 2, and a hotshot miss is a wolf win. Changing the order of when the hotshot fires doesnt change the result. Assuming no wolf from the lynch or vig, a hot shot miss today OR tomorrow is still a wolf win.

Let me ask you this. What team of 4 wolves says "hey key, go ahead and just blast the fuck out of gabe. Kill a quiet villager who isnt doing anything. Im sure that wont be suspicious, and you can totally get away with it. Thats far better than just waiting a day to do it day2 where you have 0 chance of being punished for it."

[rong]

Ong, stoppit, you're making my cock hard!

[OngBonga]

it is wrong to let uber wolfy behavior slide because of some itty bitty chance he could be cleared as villager.

I disagree with you here. When his alignment becomes 100% confirmed later on, assuming we don't get wiped out, then lynching him is highly suboptimal. Principle is not good enough. I'm not policy lynching someone when we're in this much shit on d1. If he's village then I'll punish him for it in a future d1. For now my concern is to optimise our chances of emerging d2 with a fighting chance. For that we need a wolf lynch that is not keybored. A keyb wolf lynch is not good enough, especially given the small chance it totally screws us over.

If you don't agree, fair enough. But please don't be so foolish to think that just because we don't agree on optimal strategy, that it means we have a different alignment. You're certainly wrong about me, and probably jkds too.

[rong]

Ps, I mmayhave been drinking.

[OngBonga]

And I've been smoking.

[baudib]

I quoted my post where I sum it up. If you can't be bothered to read that, then sod off until you can be bothered.

yes i get that but i hadn't seen or thought about it until then.

i didn't get the implications of it

[Keith]

hotshot shooting key today is a waste. vig could do that tonight. I suggest that hotshots shoot according to a formula and we get a hotshot taking out a premium target instead. And then Ong turns round and calls me a wolf .My scheme would probably have prevented the wolves from choosing their target and it looks like the wolf hotshot acted preemptively since my scheme would have narrowed down the wolf hotshot rather than letting them hide until an endgame shot.

hotshots , just take out ong and jkds now and with luck we could have 3 dead wolves by tomorrrow.

[JKDS]

I mean, isnt it obv that wolf strat is to use their hotshot power when it cinches the win? I dont see why they wouldnt just wait till day 2 to do it as a win condition, when doing it now attracts so much attention.

The assumption is that key is a wolf, and killed gabe because gabe is good. Ok...but gabe wasnt doing shit this game. So a wolf comes out in the open, and deliberately does something super suspicious, so that he can kill a player, who isnt even in the game yet, thereby increasing the village's chance of lynching or shooting a wolf?

I dont see it. Key looks wolfy, i grant that. But i think there is a huge chance of him being cleared later, and i think there is a good chance he does this as a villager. Its just so redic that wolves would think to do this when they dont have too. If there is fear that gabe becomes active day 2, they'd just shoot him day 2 start. Its what optimal play is for them in that scenario, since it leaves gabe alive to be lynched/shot day 1 and doesnt risk their hotshot's death day 1 or n1.

[baudib]

if we are not turbo lynching key then let's wait and not do anything hasty

ffs

[JKDS]

Ong, stoppit, you're making my cock hard!

Pics or it didnt happen.

[OngBonga]

wuf are you really on the same page as keith rather than me and jkds?

Instead of looking for reasons for me and jkds to be wolves, try finding reasons for keith to be a villager.

[Keith]

jkds isn't usually this dumb ......my scheme would force the wolf hotshot to shoot or identify himself as the wolf hotshot by not shooting and then he wouldn't be able to wait to day 2 .your refusal to accept this and continued argument against my scheme shows you to be a wolf.

[OngBonga]

It's like wuf is so afraid of being levelled that he'll ignore the obvious wolf in favour of a more elaborate soulread.

[wufwugy]

Okay there are currently 12 players. 8v4

Assume we lynch a villager (very likely): 7v4

Assume the vig shoots a villager (not terribly unlikely): 6v4

Assume the wolves nom: 5v4


At this point, if Keybored is a vilhotshot, the wolfhotshot shoots and the village loses at the very beginning of d2. If Keybored is not a vilhotshot, we have no choice but to lynch him (unless he was confirmed not-wolf, very unlikely). Or instead of lynching him, a vilhotshot can shoot him

That takes us to either d2 5v3 or n2 5v3. Either one has the similar value since d2 would need the second hotshot to shoot, then at 4v3 we get our final lynch. At n2, it means the vig either shoots or we can wait on trying to get a d3 lynch at 4v3



This reveals something we haven't considered yet: if Keybored is vilhotshot and we wait for potential confirmation, it won't matter unless we kill other wolves before the beginning of d2 since it will be 5v4 and the wolfhotshot will cinch the win with an immediate kill. If Keybored is vilhotshot and we lynch him, it means we were always going to lose anyways


Considering this, I think this means that we absolutely have to kill Keybored and Ong. If Ong was a villager, he would absolutely be cognizant of this stuff. But he's not. He can't be assed to acknowledge that waiting for confirmation does nothing.

I recommend all people with powers kill Key and Ong as fast as possible. My preference is before the d1 lynch. After Key flips wolfhotshot, it means one of Baud and JKDS is a wolf (maybe both), and it's probably JKDS (but still could be both). I wish both BID and Baud weren't acting so damn wolfy, but Baud looks marginally less so I guess

4 post game: Key Ong JKDS BID

My bold will stay on Key unless he is shot, then it will move to Ong if Key is wolf. If Ong also dies before the lynch in 8 hours or whatever, I'll switch to JKDS, assuming Ong flips wolf

Man this is ridorkulous. I'm trying though

[OngBonga]

jkds what's your read on keith? I seem to recall you thinking he's a villager. Do you still think that? Why if you think I'm an obvious villager is keith thinking I'm a wolf? Ignore wuf, we know he's just being wuf. But is keith just being keith here? I don't think so. I think he's having to work hard to bullshit his wolf reads.

[OngBonga]

Ok so if we lynch a villager then vig can't shoot tonight.

[wufwugy]

Oh how ironic it is that last game it was me and JKDS the good guys against Keith the bad guy, but now it's me and Keith the good guys against JKDS and Ong the bad guys

[Keith]

It's like wuf is so afraid of being levelled that he'll ignore the obvious wolf in favour of a more elaborate soulread.

lets make it easy then ong..... hotshot shoots you and if you are a villager , other hotshot can shoot me.If you are a wolf then other hotshot can shot jkds instead of me. or hotshot can shoot me first , and when you see i'm a villager other hotshot can shoot ong and vig can shoot JKDS and keybored can be lynched.

[OngBonga]

wuf you're wrong. Now go be honourary wolf again.

[OngBonga]

lets make it easy then ong..... hotshot shoots you and if you are a villager , other hotshot can shoot me.If you are a wolf then other hotshot can shot jkds instead of me. or hotshot can shoot me first , and when you see i'm a villager other hotshot can shoot ong and vig can shoot JKDS and keybored can be lynched.

So you're saying keybored is wolf hotshot?

[OngBonga]

lynch keith

[wufwugy]

I dont see it. Key looks wolfy, i grant that. But i think there is a huge chance of him being cleared later, and i think there is a good chance he does this as a villager.

Major wolfing. You're basically saying a bunch of untruths

It's as clear as day that Key gat Gabe for wolfing reasons, most likely that he looked special, he's very good, and most importantly he put his attention on Baud and JKDS. Using the logic of wagonomics Baud claimed in the last game, what we're looking at here is likely an assassination that makes Baud/JKDS look baddy

[OngBonga]

wuf, why do you suppose keith said "other hotshot"?

[wufwugy]

Ok so if we lynch a villager then vig can't shoot tonight.

We want the vig to shoot and we want both hotshots to shoot before any cinch scenario

This means the correct course of action is to get all hotshot shots before d1 ends

[wufwugy]

wuf, why do you suppose keith said "other hotshot"?

reread what he said

[wufwugy]

Ong is not trying to find wolves, he's trying to get me off of finding wolves

[JKDS]

what we're looking at here is likely an assassination that makes Baud/JKDS look baddy

All the more reason a wolf hotshot wouldnt shoot gabe, who wasnt even in the game. He didnt even vote wuf. Had he named you, would you be scared of him?

@ONG: Keith is missing some things i expect villager keith to be doing. Ive already revealed my conspiracy theory tell on him, and I'd rather not reveal the others. His emotions and reacitons seem genuine though, and i think hes being consistent with villager keith. The word tiwsts or whatever, I can see him just genuinely thinking what he thought there.

[Keith]

i'm saying that i'm pretty sure hes a wolf that was forced out because of my scheme and the wolves chose a priority target for him to kill. Note how he opened he game , open bolding me , remember two games ago , i had both you and him as wolves on day 2 and you two are scared shitless that i make the connection again this game. He tried to get a wagon going on me and then my scheme dropped you wolves in the shit.

[OngBonga]

hotshot shoots you and if you are a villager , other hotshot can shoot me.

*fixed bold tags

All I'm seeing here is the assumption that there's two village hotshots.

[wufwugy]

The only thing I hate about this, is it shouldnt be this easy. Balance makes it near impossible for the wolves to lose this, but if I'm right it means they could actually lose.

It's not like we have any choice. It is majorly wrong to try get Key confirmed, and we need all shooters to release before any potential cinch. So we're stuck between a rock and a hard place, where we have to make our reads and go Outlaw Josey Wales on it

[JKDS]

wuf, why do you suppose keith said "other hotshot"?

That struck me as weird too. But, I think he assumes he can force the wolf hotshot to do what he wants, so i think he doesnt care about alignment when hes talking about them.

[baudib]

this game turned into AIDS in a hurry

JKDS as you were the one who caught Keith last game, do you feel he is exhibiting a different tone and game-solveyness this game? Even if you disagree with his conclusions.

[OngBonga]

I don't understand why keith thinks the other hotshot spewing today is ever gonna be helpful.

[OngBonga]

lol ok it's pretty easy to derp say "other".

[wufwugy]

All the more reason a wolf hotshot wouldnt shoot gabe, who wasnt even in the game. He didnt even vote wuf. Had he named you, would you be scared of him?

@ONG: Keith is missing some things i expect villager keith to be doing. Ive already revealed my conspiracy theory tell on him, and I'd rather not reveal the others. His emotions and reacitons seem genuine though, and i think hes being consistent with villager keith. The word tiwsts or whatever, I can see him just genuinely thinking what he thought there.

Wolves would assume nobody would notice

Regardless, we have zero choice. Key dying is correct, and all shots loosing ASAP is correct. My view that the shots should wait until d2 was on the assumption that there would be no shots on d1. Now we're at the mercy of an even closer cinch if Key is a villager

IMO the best reason there ever could be for you and Ong being wolves is that they're gung ho about the idea that we should wait for confirmation. I rate your understanding of the game much more highly than that. Waiting for a confirmation on Key is doomsday

[wufwugy]

you're not theyre

[JKDS]

this game turned into AIDS in a hurry

JKDS as you were the one who caught Keith last game, do you feel he is exhibiting a different tone and game-solveyness this game? Even if you disagree with his conclusions.

He is being consistent with villager keith, and I almost always disagree with his conclusions.

[OngBonga]

keith is being really opportunistic here though, and I was reading him well last game. He's a wolf. The attack on me lacks any bite, he doesn't believe what he's saying. He's dropping pov slips, he's twisting people's words about, he's dropping keith wolf tells one after the other.

[baudib]

He is being consistent with villager keith, and I almost always disagree with his conclusions.

i mean that's my feel too, but not really sure on his shot theory.

[baudib]

how about we form a decision committee who hears the arguments and decides

how much time do we have?

[wufwugy]

i'll be the decision committee

key and ong are must-deaths, super preferably via hotshot within the next couple hours. if they both flip vil, they were still the right choices even though i know i'll get nothing but flak for it

[JKDS]

Wolves would assume nobody would notice

Woah woah woah woah woah. No. Just no. "Shoot gabe, no one will notice or bat an eye." NO. that didnt happen.

Regardless, we have zero choice. Key dying is correct, and all shots loosing ASAP is correct. My view that the shots should wait until d2 was on the assumption that there would be no shots on d1. Now we're at the mercy of an even closer cinch if Key is a villager

IMO the best reason there ever could be for you and Ong being wolves is that they're gung ho about the idea that we should wait for confirmation. I rate your understanding of the game much more highly than that. Waiting for a confirmation on Key is doomsday

Lynching a villager is also doomsday. Thats were we disagree. You have this 'factwolf" stuff you've been preaching for a few games now, but lynching a 'factwolf' who turns out to be a villager may well be a game loss. We cant just stop evaluating just because we found something we dont understand.

Wolves are found by finding inconsistencies between how a person would play as a villager, and how they would play as a wolf. Going against game theory doesnt mean dick, all that matters is how that person would play. (Ex. if daven urged for bigred's modkill, its pretty clear that its role neutral even if its antivillage gametheory).

So does it make sense for keybored to do this as a villager? Yes it does. We all thought he was in his 20s the first time he played, and were surprised to find out hes retired and old. Hes the type that would be itching to fire his gun, and looking for any reason to do so. Is this is first time as a special? It very well might be, I wasnt here when he joined in april. The point is, it is not inconsistent that he shot gabe. Most ppl when they are vigs shoot people. Its fun.

But It IS super obscure that a wolf would openly choose to shoot gabe day 1 though. It makes 0 sense, and opens them up to a risk where there wasnt one before. Put simply, its stupid. You'd have to assume they were deliberately playing in a -ev way, and they dont ever do this.

[wufwugy]

i lold at key itching to shoot his gun because he's old

[JKDS]

I dont think im ever gonna convince the key hatters to back off.

The wagon should be key v dhubs. I think most people arguing for/against keys lynch are villagers. Wolves are often hesitant to weigh in, and wait to see how these kinds of things play out.

[JKDS]

i lold at key itching to shoot his gun because he's old

Thats actually pretty funny. But it isnt what I meant. I meant he sometimes acts and is perceived as being immature.

[baudib]

yeah i apologize now for not being more actively involved in this game

i didn't realize we could actually reach a critical stage at this point of the game

i'd like to hear from Gator/Dhubs/Luco on all this

[OngBonga]

Remember last game when wuf was all "holy fuck daven is lockwolf" and ong was all "nah he's lock vill due to wagon dynamics" and wuf was all "fuck wagon dynamics I once saw this crazy shit happen so now fuck logic and hello wild theory", and I was all "fuck's sake" and wuf was all "daven is a lockwolf yadder yadder" and guess what happened? daven was vill.

pro tip - village should do the opposite of what wuf says.