Carnage before Christmas

[Keybored]

Voting has been smeared this game cuz wolves strat has been to not pile on.

[wufwugy]

you can leave your vote on dhubs since it's 4 to lynch and we know you're not a wolf so if the wolves tried to pile on to get to 3 first it wouldnt work, but i recommend nobody else bold anybody at least until after we get some talking

im going to get up my final post within a few hours. i think the game is locked up, but measure twice cut once

[Keybored]

Ong-Vee-Pee!
Ong-Vee-Pee!!
Ong-Vee-Pee!!!

[Keybored]

you can leave your vote on dhubs since it's 4 to lynch and we know you're not a wolf so if the wolves tried to pile on to get to 3 first it wouldnt work, but i recommend nobody else bold anybody at least until after we get some talking

im going to get up my final post within a few hours. i think the game is locked up, but measure twice cut once

spent the night measuring...Dhubs fo-sho. Luco mostly but there's still a sliver of hope for him.

Measure with a micrometer, mark it with chalk, then cut with a chainsaw...best results guaranteed!!

[wufwugy]

key, explain why dhubs fo sho and luco sliver of hope

[wufwugy]

jkds and ong can share the mvp. without the quiet savior jkds, it would have ended yesterday

[Keybored]

jkds and ong can share the mvp. without the quiet savior jkds, it would have ended yesterday

would hafta hear how JKDS got his mojo for that shot. If just lucky, then meh. Ong twerked it like a stripper.

[Keybored]

key, explain why dhubs fo sho and luco sliver of hope

Wuf, we on same page, me thinks. So I'd like to see some love sharing today.

I have your answer but I'd like to withhold pending other inputs.
Since I'm confirmed, this obv ain't no ploy.
Really want to hear from Rong & Keith b4 tipping my hand. '
IDGAF what Luco and Dhuber say, tbh.

[Keith]

exchanging keybored for hoops


baud bid jkds hoops


lynch baud faster

does wolf wuf put baud and bid first and second in his wolf list , i think not wuf = villager

This could make or break the game


If all three shots hit villagers it's 6-4, a mislynch + nom (or errant vig shot) and it's over before d2. If we hit at least one wolf we're in better shape though, but we need to hit at least two to improve our equity:


Random odds of lynching a wolf now = 4 in 13, 30.7%


3 hotshots fire, 1 wolf + 2 Vil die. it's now 7-3
Wolf in hotshots = 1 in 3, 33%
Wolves in remainder = 2 in 7, 28%


So if we only hit one wolf we're no better off than pre shooting and almost better off lynching from one of the three hotshots at this point.


Also this simply isn't as fun as soulreading.

Luco trying his best to show that my plan wouldbn't benefit the village, lol that i actually had a wolf hotshot shooting another wolf .And the known and suspected wolves were arguing against and trying to discredit my plan. This has to put me as a lock villager.

It's a great strat idea if keith is a wolf and the rando shootings kill only villagers.

Reserving judgment on this Keith plan.


It definitely doesn't sound fun.

I do think that keith might be onto something with his strat, although I'm not convinced it is +EV for the village.


The point about rando not being fun is actually the best reason not to do it imo


This is not me being a wolf and hoping not to do it, this is me thinking that if we do it rando - we're simply exploiting a role hole made by the mod. This will probably discourage experimentation in the future.


This is me fence-sitting tho - experimentation is what were doing, no matter what holes are found. That's all part of the science.

I'm not as big on a baud-wolf scenario as you are. I think the play for him as a Wolf this time around would be to not contribute as much early-on as he has in the past. Of course, that's a pretty basic line of thought and there's the fact the baud-wolf threw me for a loop big-time last match.


I have no reads for Villagers at the moment.

why is dhuber defending baud


#159

Wolf can't echo hotshot, because no villager hotshot would ever echo hotshot, why on earth would they.


But that aside I can see value in the theory.

rong not against my plan and replied quickly ......has to be a villager since we know known wolves were arguing against it because bid would have shot baud.
#196.

So, one of several things will happen with the wolf hot shot if we follow Keith's plan.


1. Wolf will be aiming at a villager, in which case either:
- 1a. Wolf does so and we are none the wiser to his role.
- 1b. Wolf shoots a strong villager instead, we know his role and are very suspicious about his initial target.


2. Wolf is aiming at fellow wolf. In which case either:
- 2a. Wolf shoots buddy and claims to be a villager and we are none the wiser about his role, but we are a wolf down.
- 2b. Wolf just takes out a strong villager instead and we know his role, and are very suspicious about his initial target.


So it presents a potential problem, looking at the list in op:


BankItDrew
baudib
dhubermex
gabe
GatorJH
Hoopy
JKDS
Keith
keybored
Luco
ongbonga
rong
wufwuggy


Let's say Duubermex is a wolf and Gabe is a villager and we are shooting down the list.


If Dhub just says fuck it and takes out a gator/jkds type player, we will end up assuming Gabe was a fellow wolf and his one shot potentially takes out two of our strongest villagers.


Or let's say dhub and Gabe are both wolves, same thing applies and Gabe uses the above explanation to weasel his way out of a lynch. So the theory isn't as strong as I initially thought.


And as an FYI I only used Dhub and Gabe as Gabe was the first super strong player in the list. (No offence BID/Baud/Dhubs)

hmmm rong now downplaying my plan ....and people he uses as the example is the bodyguard.then all the known wolves (luco) also weigh in with anti plan posts.



i'm pretty sure that luco is one of the wolves and highly likely that dhuber is the other one. wuf i'm pretty sure is a villager and i know that i'm villager and key is confirmed . dhuber defended baud in the one post i quoted and rong initially didn't mind my plan .

i'd prefer luco then dhuber but dhuber then luco works.if we're wrong its gonna go wrong whicheever order we lynch them.

[wufwugy]

I reread all the posts from living players just to be sure.

i think luco and dhubs have to be the last two lynches, and if theyre not the wolves then we lose. some bullet points for why:


key is obviously confirmed

2 main reasons why keith is unlikely wolf: (1) his hotshot strat had bid shooting baud and it got pushback from bid. (2) the last thing wolfkeith is going to do as ong was blasting full bummer on baud is let it happen. keith would attack ong hard and definitely the day would not have been ended with the self-lynch

2 main reasons why rong is unlikely wolf: (1) he feels sincere. just straight up feels sincere. (2) same as with keith, rong is not going to bend over as a wolf. he's putting his dukes up and he too would probably see ample opportunity to attack ong for the early bold. baud's self-lynch all but confirmed that neither rong nor keith are wolves

obviously i know my role

that leaves two remaining possible wolves, neither of whom have any claim to vildom whatsoever, and also have some highly wolfy behaviors

4 main reasons for dhubs being wolf: (1) no wolf bolded him the entire game. every player on his wagon at any point is a dead villager or is me. (2) luco defended him many times. literally like five times out of the blue, all for little to no reason. (3) this is the reason why my final d1 bold was on dhubs: the hoopy fakeshot. he had little reason to want that. if he was vil he would likely have fakeshotted jkds since he kept saying jkds is wolf (with a weak case i might add). but more importantly, a thoughtful villager would think twice against fakeshooting since it confirms to the wolves a vanilla role. i wanted to fake, but didnt for that reason. (4) remember after ong bolded dhubs with just a couple minutes left or whatever, baud said "did you just cinch dhubs?"

2 main reasons luco is likely wolf: (1) all game he just defended dhubs. (2) scramble bolds at end of day. he bolded both hoopy and keybored after both had been confirmed hotshots. there's no conviction here. frankly i think the wolves accidentally put themselves into a situation where they had to scramble at end of day to avoid dhubs dying.


so with this in mind, i see no way im bolding anybody other than luco and dhubs

[Keith]

since key , wuf and me (+ongs dying wish )all think its dhubs and luco and key has led with dhuber i'll bold dhuber in the morning when i wake up

[wufwugy]

post game we're gonna have to figure out what we're calling dhubs. iirc i picked dhubs becuase i didnt wanna give anything away during a modding by taking on somebody else's version

doobs just sounds silly, and it's too close to hoops, which is locked in stone teh hoopster's name

im partial to d to the macky mex, but aint no way that catches on

[Keybored]

If the wolves aren't gonna post they may as well self lynch and save us the asspain.

[wufwugy]

yep if luco and dhubs were villagers, they would have seen the play over the last two days and would have jumped in here asap to defend. they've had enough time

lynch dhubs

[Keybored]

Here's the entire Dhuber game:

After declaring V.V. again, his first game post is a soulread. He's never been this decisive and yet so unconvincing:

Well, at least it hasn't taken me as long this match to spot the first Wolf.
My analysis of JKDS lines...
Line 1: Obv wolfy... leads to early in the match for JKDS (he did hint he might do this in a separate thread, but it's too convenient. Plus, the words "educated" are forced.
Line 2: No read
Line 3: Slightly Village-esque if you don't look at it from the perspective of a wolf. Second or third name-drop in that line is a Wolf as well (either Keith or Gator)
Line 4: Wolfy feeler for potential future use
Lynch JKDS

A clear defense of Baudib out of nowhere:

I'm not as big on a baud-wolf scenario as you are. I think the play for him as a Wolf this time around would be to not contribute as much early-on as he has in the past. Of course, that's a pretty basic line of thought and there's the fact the baud-wolf threw me for a loop big-time last match.
I have no reads for Villagers at the moment.

Don't get the Wuf nudge but tossing out the Hoopy lunch w/o cause is weaksause:

The only player I'm willing to work with at this time is wufwugy. I'm so-so on a Hoopy lynch, but prefer JKDS for the reasons I already outlined.

Offers no support for liking an extension and then BAM! Fire & Forget...

Glad to hear the day has been extended.
Oh, and I SHOOT HOOPY WITH MY MURCAN GUN, HELL YEAH
Now that that's taken care of, can we get on with the JKDS lynch?

This cat video was way past the meaningless early d1 dribble and not in his normal lane:

This is him wearing the Mod hat, explaining why the extension was dumb and then a weak read on my Gabe shot:

He's trying to say he wouldn't have shot gabe had he known gabe still had a lot of time to contribute D1. So Keybored is either lock Village or one hell of a Wolf with the emo-psyche. I think the former is much more likely.

And that's it folks...Kid's been ofo since post 506, 3 full days IRL.
Reason enuff for modkill and lunching.

Keith/Rong...you on this bus?

[dhubermex]

I've skimmed over the last few pages (the parts where I'm mentioned).

It's been a busy weekend with school stuff, etc. Completely my fault for not chiming in sooner.

As I stated early-on in the thread, I am a V-V. Since there is momentum for me getting lynched and I haven't contributed much this game, I think it's best for me to open myself up to any questions in order to try to substantiate my role.

(A) Any questions you have, post them and I will try to answer.
(B) I was never going to lynch JKDS, that was a diversion to see where I got.
(C) I DID want Hoopy. It turns out that was a soul-read FAIL.
(D) I indeed wasn't big on a baudib lynch early on. Turned out I was wrong on that one, too.
(E) I read an argument by wuf that one of the main reasons to lynch Luco is because he defended me. This worries me since I know my own role (no, it's not Wolf).
(F) If Village is dead-set on me getting lynched, we're pretty much screwed b/c I'm not in league with the bad side.
(G) The fake MURCAN was to try to gain info. It was poorly timed as Ong suggested and indirectly resulted in an incorrect Hoopy lynch.

I'm open to any questions.

[dhubermex]

I'm guessing wuf is a Wolf based on his second vote for me -- since I know my own role.

There's some teamwork going on between Keith/wuf. Keybored, any chance you'll rescind? Ask away if you have questions please.

-David

Lynch wufwugy

[wufwugy]

at least you spelled it right. IM LOOKING AT YOU MADMOJJOMONKEY

[rong]

Jesus fuck wuf, shouldn't you have waited a bit before bolding.

[rong]

Its very unlikely Keith due to the list. The only way it's Keith is if he planned for bid to shoot jkds/gave or someone if the idea caught on so he could then claim credit. That would be very Keith. Combine that with Ong attack which was a bit weak too, but meh I haven't really had him pegged as a wolf.

If it's wuf it means he's killed my read that has been accurate since he started playing. One day he'll flip wolf and use it against me though I'm sure but I can't see me ever voting him.

So that only leaves Luco and dhuber. All seems rather simple and convenient though, and I'm sure it's never this simple and convenient.

[Luco]

This is horseshit.

[Luco]

So the whole case against me is because the hoopy lynch was poor? Because no other villagers have made poor decisions this game? It's a turbo, the value in keeping HS alive for confirmation decreases in a game that could be over by N2.

I think it looks worse than it really was because jkds binked the last hotshot n1

[Luco]

The villager cases for keith and rong are weak. Rong has done nothing this game and for all his 'shoot baudib, let's lynch baudib' he was kinda soft on him in the end dont you think? Wolf cover.

And keith spouts the list as says it makes him a lock villager because bid would have shot baud - horseshit. He actually CHANGED the plan remember, saying shoot jkds first!

[rong]

Lunch doobs

Fuck it

[Luco]

lynch dhubermex

[Luco]

rong and keith, I'm coming for you tomorrow

[Luco]

I mean, if dhuber is a wolf

[Luco]

If not, this is already over.

[rong]

I have no idea how you're still alive.

[Luco]

What's that supposed to mean?

[rong]

How we just lynched dhuber instead of you today. I'm thinking we should have followed ongs plan. Instead we let keyboard lead, that can't be a good thing.

[rong]

I mean the guy shot gabe.

[Luco]

How we just lynched dhuber instead of you today. I'm thinking we should have followed ongs plan. Instead we let keyboard lead, that can't be a good thing.

Dhuber didn't even sign in to the night watch, I took that shift alone. He HAS to be a wolf.

[rong]

An fuck a duck, I just ground my alloys against the pavement in my new car.

[Luco]

And look at keith

D1 - baud and ong wolfin, everyone get on ONG
D2 - Baud and luco wolfin, I PREFER LUCO
D3 - dhuber luco wolfin, I PREFER LUCO

Always, always pushing a villager first.

Wuf you said that keith would have pushed back at ong d2, why would he? If dhuber is a wolf then baud was a dead duck at that point.

Rong, is the wolf team rong / keith? Is it over? Don't fuck with me man

[Luco]

An fuck a duck, I just ground my alloys against the pavement in my new car.

omfg

[Keith]

lynch dhoobs

who pointed out to ong to look at your and bauds actions in the hoopy lynch Luco? Do i do that as a wolf ?

[Luco]

lynch dhoobs

who pointed out to ong to look at your and bauds actions in the hoopy lynch Luco? Do i do that as a wolf ?

You didn't point it out, you asked him what he thought. And yes, yes you do

[Luco]

What I mean is, your post there could easily have just been testing the waters

[Keith]

lol , so wolves need 1 mislynch , its far easier if i was a wolf to keep pressing the case against ong, rather than drawing attention to you and baud getting the known HS villager lynched . I was the one saying lack of a third HS probably meant that hoopy and key were villagers . When hoopy shot i got off him . you however flipped between both village HS as you only needed the mislynch to win with a likely wolf HS to come yesterday. You're getting lynched tomorrow regardless so do what Gator did and concede.

[rong]

Yeah Luco, just aroo already.

[Luco]

lol , so wolves need 1 mislynch , its far easier if i was a wolf to keep pressing the case against ong, rather than drawing attention to you and baud getting the known HS villager lynched . I was the one saying lack of a third HS probably meant that hoopy and key were villagers . When hoopy shot i got off him . you however flipped between both village HS as you only needed the mislynch to win with a likely wolf HS to come yesterday. You're getting lynched tomorrow regardless so do what Gator did and concede.

I can't concede.

statistically there was a 56% shot at a wolf between keybored and hoopy at that point, and when the hoopy wagon died I switched to key because I was more like 95% sure there was a wolf between key / hoops. Key felt like a better lynch than the other two active wagons (dhuber and you), and then baudib came in and refired the hoopy wagon and I jumped back on. I already told you the lack of a shot could have just been b/c HS wasn't online.

I don't think pressing ong d2 is the only thing you would do as a wolf, you're smarter than that. But I have to admit I'm leaning rong as the last wolf, not you.

[Luco]

Ah fuck it.

Aroooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[rong]

Arooooooooooo

[Keith]

holy fuck .......just checked out the original list again .....my original plan ...bid wolf shoots baud wolf , hoopy shoots jkds vig, and key shoots luco....talk about carnage .

so is the game over ?

[rong]

Ha I'd never noticed that. That would leave me and bid on day 2.

Yeah games over, the dhuber lynch lost it for you. Did not expect that to happen today.

[Luco]

Ha I'd never noticed that. That would leave me and bid on day 2.

Yeah games over, the dhuber lynch lost it for you. Did not expect that to happen today.

Yeah but it would have happened tomorrow after my flip. D1 it really, really looked like baudib and I were trying to save dhuber

[rong]

If we lynch you today after deciding a very likely path yesterday, when its all going so well, you'd have to question whether it would be looking to easy by tomorrow. It's never that straightforward.

[Luco]

Well if keybored hadn't led out on dhuber today I would have had to play like a cornered wolf so it didn't feel too easy. From there it's just praying that dhuber doesn't clear himself

Also you underestimate how villagery you actually come across, it's scary

[Keybored]

DHuber for honorary wolf.

Rong's game was what gave me doubt on Luco. I waas seeing 100% wolf btwn them 2. But wanted to hear more from them b4 deciding.

Didn't expect Wuf to pull that trigger so quick. Didn't give the over yonders time to weigh in.

Gotta give Rong mvp for slinking on by.

Good Game Snaggle Toots

[dhubermex]

DHuber for honorary wolf.

Yeah, I played poorly this match and didn't keep up with the thread like I should have. It's a good lesson for me going forward that soul-reads alone won't do the trick.

GG all.

[BankItDrew]

Sick. We won bitches!

I nominate myself for co MVP alongside dhuber.

Thanks a lot MMM for putting it together.

I'd like to make a shout out to my new buddy, JKDS. You played great. Sick read during night watch. MMM, don't share that thread. Thanks.

[Keith]

den thread? wanna see what you guys really thought of my plan lol

[Luco]

den thread? wanna see what you guys really thought of my plan lol

Kinda wanna wait for momo to give the thread links but spoiler - its pretty much exactly what you guessed lol

'how does keiths plan affect us?'
'bid shoots baud'
'better discredit keith'

[Keybored]

Oh yah...And VILLAGE DRUNK nom:

Keybored & Hoopy

Bums with Guns
Hobos with Hotshots
you get the idea.

[Keybored]

Dhubs...b4 momo rings in, you should nom yourself and make it a perfect 6/6!
Keith...Putting Dhubs on L+1? Classic! Your Native American name will be Kicking Dead Horse.

[Keybored]

ONG: sorry for not sticking to your plan and robbing you of a much deserved MVP! I accept your D1 Lynch/N1 Nom next game.

[Keybored]

Ooh Ooh...and all you Mod donks who posted all over MoMo's locked thread.

C'mon, Man!

[baudib]

Village hotshots for MVP

[Luco]

Village hotshots for MVP

Just one time I want a gun. ONE. TIME.

asdhdfssasghdfdsfgj

[BankItDrew]

Village hotshots for MVP

Hahaha this

n1 keybored

that was pretty epic

[OngBonga]

pfft

[BankItDrew]

Just one time I want a gun. ONE. TIME.

asdhdfssasghdfdsfgj

How do you think I feel? I had a gun a couldnmt shoot it!

[Luco]

Jokes aside, ong was clear MVP

Although I'd love to know how jkds figured out bankitdrew was a wolf

[BankItDrew]

Jokes aside, ong was clear MVP

Although I'd love to know how jkds figured out bankitdrew was a wolf

It's nothing special. He just soulread my tone. No need to share the thread.

[OngBonga]

Nah I just got baudib lynched, there's no way I'm getting to dan. He did one wolfy thing on d1 which I picked up on, but that alone isn't getting him lynched.

[OngBonga]

drew outed himself by accident, he posted something intended for the den in the wrong qt

obviously

[OngBonga]

Ooh Ooh...and all you Mod donks who posted all over MoMo's locked thread.

C'mon, Man!

Yeah this.

baudib and keith need to slap each other.

[Luco]

Lol, all of these are on page fucking one:

why randomize day 1 lynch and not sure what info you are hoping to get from a private chat that you can't tell what happened in it. Left to himself BID is a liability and targetting gabe over that comment seems opportunistic. lynch BID

damnit, baudib rolled wolf again.

PS - I may be lock voting him today and will be able to explain why at the end of "today"

4 poast gayme

baud bid jkds keybored

[OngBonga]

My first serious post is a rong lynch. I think that's the only vote he got all game wasn't it?

[dhubermex]

Great job MMM with the modding. Thanks for putting the match together!

[OngBonga]

The trollish start was pure balance. The opening stages are where wolves make sloppy mistakes because there's nothing interesting to talk about. And when dan said he'd have me pegged as seer if there was one, I was happy because I figured I'm playing wolfy and seery when I'm vanilla. Perfect balance. So suck it. That's my new d1 style. I'm mostly anti-town on d1 anyway as villager because I just shout too much based on gut. So it's not even an anti-town adjustment to make. It's probably pro-town because it balances my seer game, which has been a fail every time.

[Luco]

My first serious post is a rong lynch. I think that's the only vote he got all game wasn't it?

Does baudib's rong vote count? It probably shouldn't count

[OngBonga]

Yeah I'm not counting w-w votes.

Scanning through dan's posts, there's no way he's getting lynched. Only way he ever gets dead is if I'm hotshot and I'm drunk at exactly the right time on d1.

[baudib]

Luco pointed out there was a time on D1 when all the wolves were voting wolves and all the villagers were voting villagers.